BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 4, 3:27 AM EST
396
FXUS61 KBOX 040827
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
327 AM EST Sat Jan 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, blustery, and cold weather is on tap for the region this
weekend. A Mid Atlantic snowstorm will probably miss us to the south
Monday. Otherwise, mainly dry, blustery and cold weather with below
normal temperatures will persist most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Pressure gradient begins to tighten behind the cold frontal passage
from overnight, bringing blustery NW winds starting this morning.
Mixing up to 800mb will allow for gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph. Cold
air advection will be accompanied by the strong NW winds. High temps
will range from the low 20s in the high terrain to the low 30s along
the coastal plain. With the gusty winds, the feels like temperature
will be 10-15 degrees cooler than the actual air temp. Light snow
showers are possible in high-terrain of the Berkshires from leftover
lake effect streamers. Any snow that does fall will be light, no
more than a coating to an inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Winds will diminish slightly overnight as mixing wont be as strong
as during the day. However, NW gusts of 15-25mph will continue. This
will keep overnight lows from plummeting into the single digits,
instead staying in the upper teens to low 20s. The feels like
temperature will however be in the single digits to low teens.
Not much change on Sunday, with continued gusty NW winds of 20-
30mph. Highs again range from the low 20s to the low 30s. A weak
shortwave drops south from northern New England early in the day,
but lack of mid to upper-level moisture will prevent accumulating
snowfall. It is not out of the question that there may be some snow
flurries Sunday morning, especially north of the Mass Pike.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages
* Cold and mainly dry through the end of next week
* Slight chance for some snow showers over the south coast Sunday
night into Monday
A few large synoptic features remain rather stagnant during this
portion of the forecast, meaning not much change to the sensible
weather outcomes expected. The first such features area a broad mid
level cutoff, and its corresponding surface low pressure, over the
Maritimes. The second such features is a high pressure over central
Canada and the northern Plains. This combination will maintain a
colder W to NW flow across our region through next week, and steer
and early week storm to our south. Near to below normal temperatures
anticipated through the end of next week.
While dry weather is expected to prevail across southern New England
through next week, there remains a low probability (20-30%) for
measurable precipitation reaching as far north as the south coast of
RI and MA sometime Monday into Monday night. Expecting more clouds
than sunshine at a minimum, but there remains time for these details
to change with later forecasts.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Rest of Tonight: High Confidence
VFR with winds shifting to the NW and slowly picking up
overnight. Gusts should hold of until tomorrow morning.
Saturday: High Confidence
VFR with gusty NW winds at 20-30 knots, possibly higher over the
high terrain in western MA. Light snow showers are possible in
the high terrain of the Berkshires.
Saturday Night: High confidence
VFR: Less gusty, but NW winds of 10-20 knots continue.
Sunday:
VFR. Gusty NW winds of 15-25 knots.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. Winds turn more NW late tonight with gusts of 20-30knots
possible Saturday, then again Sunday
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
VFR. Winds turn more NW by morning with gusts of 20-30 knots by
late morning. Gusty winds continue into Sunday.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Small Craft Advisories continue into this weekend. Model
guidance shows gusty winds continuing for the next several days.
Given all the wind, wave heights will remain elevated for quite
awhile as well.
Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of snow.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Freezing spray likely.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to
30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft. Freezing spray likely.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ230-
236.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-
250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/KP
NEAR TERM...KP
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk/KP
MARINE...Belk/KP
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 4, 3:27 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501040827-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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