BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 2:53 PM EST
554
FXUS61 KBOX 032103
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
253 PM EST Fri Jan 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, blustery, and cold weather is on tap for the region this
weekend. A mid-Atlantic snowstorm will miss us to the south on
Monday. Otherwise...mainly dry, blustery and cold weather with
below normal temperatures will persist most of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Key Message...
* Dry, blustery and cold tonight with lows mainly in the 20s
Details...
A moisture starved shortwave/cold front will cross the region
tonight. The cold front will come though dry other than perhaps a
brief flurry or two near the Berks. While winds will diminish some
from the current speeds...enough of a westerly LLJ in the cold air
advection pattern to result in blustery conditions. Since the
boundary layer will not decouple...overnight low temps will mainly
be in the 20s except perhaps for a few upper teens in the normally
coldest spots.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Quite breezy/cold Sat...Highs 30-35 except 25-30 for high terrain
* Blustery & cold Sat night with lows upper teens to the middle 20s
* Dry weather outside a brief passing snow shower in the interior
Details...
Saturday and Saturday night...
A west northwesterly flow of somewhat colder air works into the
region behind tonight/s cold frontal passage. We should see sunshine
mixed with strato-cu at times especially across the interior. 925T
are about 4C colder than they were today. This should keep high
temps mainly in the 30 to 35 degree range for most and between 25
and 30 across the high terrain. Good mixing shield yield blustery
conditions with WNW wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. This will result in
it feeling even colder than the actual temperatures.
The winds will diminish some Saturday night...but it still will
remain blustery and winds will not decouple. Low temps Sat night
should generally be in the upper teens to the middle 20s.
Dry weather will generally prevail Sat & Sat night. However...some
guidance does indicate some remnant Lake Effect moisture that tries
to enter western MA and CT later Sat/Sat night. This may be enough
for a brief passing snow shower or two across the interior and
especially near the Berks.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Messages
* Cold and mainly dry through the end of next week
* Slight chance for some snow showers over the south coast Sunday
night into Monday
Sunday through Friday
Deep northwest flow is progged to support a cold/dry forecast in
southern New England through the extended forecast period. There
will be little change in day to day weather between Sunday and
Friday with high temps ranging from the upper 20s to mid 30s and
overnight lows ranging from the low teens to low 20s with the
coldest temperatures focused across interior/northwest MA.
This deep northwest flow pattern will limit cloud cover for much of
the week as well with PWATs forecast to be below 0.25 inches through
at least next Friday. Thus, expect more sun than clouds through the
end of next week. However, while we expect mostly dry weather Sunday
through Friday, there is a low chance for a few snow showers across
southern RI, the south coast, Cape, and Islands on Monday as an area
of low pressure moves over The MidAtlantic states. Model guidance
has come to a consensus that this system will stay far enough south
that most if not all of our forecast area will remain dry. However,
some model/ensemble solutions do support a dusting of snow over the
aforementioned southern forecast zones. Ensemble probabilities for a
dusting of snow (>0.1 inches) max out around 20 percent for southern
RI, the south coast, Cape, and Islands. So while chance for snow are
low, there is a chance nonetheless. We'll have more details as we
enter the window of high resolution forecast guidance tomorrow. For
now, expect Monday to be the only day where there will likely be
more clouds than sun. Otherwise it will be a cold,dry, and sunny
week ahead.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Tonight through Saturday night...High Confidence.
VFR conditions continue through Saturday night despite a scattered
to broken deck of strato-cu at times. Dry weather persists other
than perhaps a brief passing flurry or two...especially towards the
Berks. W winds late this afternoon shift to more of a WNW
direction by Saturday. Gusts of 25 to 35 knots late this
afternoon should diminish some tonight although it will remain
blustery. Another round of 25 to 30 knots gusts are on tap for
the daylight hours on Saturday with a few brief gusts up to 35
knots possible.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Sunday through Tuesday/
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt.
Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts
up to 30 kt.
Wednesday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High- greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Winds will continue to slowly diminish today. Expect to have
Small Craft Advisories (SCA) issued as we pull down the Gale
Warnings, and those SCAs will likely continue well into this
weekend as model guidance shows gusty winds continuing for the
next several days. Given all the wind, wave heights will remain
elevated for quite awhile as well.
Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...
Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of snow.
Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight
chance of snow.
Tuesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough
seas. Chance of freezing spray.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to
30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of freezing spray.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Saturday for ANZ230-236.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-
250-251-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Frank/RM
NEAR TERM...Frank
SHORT TERM...Frank
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Frank/RM
MARINE...Frank/RM
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 3, 2:53 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501031953-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
----------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!