LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 31, 5:57 AM CST ...New AVIATION...
712
FXUS64 KLIX 311157
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
557 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Shortwave trough becoming negatively tilted over Illinois early
this morning, with another trough from the Canadian Prairie
Provinces to Montana to Nevada. At the surface, a strong cold
front was moving into northwest Louisiana. A subtle prefrontal
trough was helping to mix out patchy ground fog that has been
noted over portions of the area the last few hours. While there is
fog, traffic cameras across southeast Louisiana indicate that low
visibilities are fairly isolated. We will keep an eye on those,
however, in case an advisory becomes necessary closer to sunrise.
Temperatures at 3 AM CST ranged from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.
The frontal boundary is expected to move through the area during
the morning hours today. Dew points that are in the mid 50s to
mid 60s right now are expected to be in the 40s across most of
the area by sunset, and headed for the 30s during the day on New
Years Day. Any clouds and/or fog should be swept out of the area
by the drier air by midday. We don't really see much impact from
cold air advection today until late afternoon in most areas, which
should allow high temperatures to get back into the 70s across
much of the area. Low temperatures tomorrow morning could be as
much as 15 to 20 degrees colder than this morning's lows...ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s. Similarly, high temperatures
tomorrow will be significantly cooler, with most areas not getting
much past the 60 degree mark, if that warm.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Forecast confidence drops rapidly beyond New Years Day as medium
range models are struggling for consistency in the fast mid to
upper level flow. This can be seen in run to run changes within
models as well as between models. Northwesterly upper flow is
expected to continue across the area into the early portion of the
weekend. Troughing currently over the eastern Pacific Ocean will
approach the area Thursday or Thursday night. Models indicate a
subtle shortwave in advance of this troughing with some pooling of
moisture across the area. The ECMWF solution keeps precipitation
offshore Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, but this solution
appears to be an outlier of models that reach that far into the
future. We'll hold onto the mention of rain in the forecast with
this in mind. That precipitation should exit the area prior to
sunrise on Friday, and will trend Friday highs toward the GFS
solution.
Beyond Friday, differences in timing with troughing moving across
the middle of the country provide little confidence in timing or
precipitation amounts, temperature forecasts, or severe weather
potential on specific days. The ECMWF deterministic run is
considerably further north, stronger and faster with a system
moving through the lower and middle Mississippi River Valley near
Interstate 40 late in the weekend. That run would have the system
impact the area Sunday into Sunday night, with the GFS
deterministic solution about 12-18 hours slower, with a weaker
system south of Interstate 20.
Considering 20 to 30 degree temperature spreads over the weekend
into Monday within the ECMWF ensemble members, and large
differences between the ECMWF and GFS solutions, it's probably no
surprise that the NBM deterministic numbers are pretty much an
average of the two. The fact that the features driving the weekend
weather are still out over the Pacific Ocean, it may be a couple
more days before they are sampled well enough to provide more
confidence in specifics. Would not be surprised at all to see
significant shifts in the NBM numbers in later forecasts, perhaps
as early as the forecast for Saturday, and pretty likely Sunday
and Monday. One thing that is clear, though, much colder weather
is on tap for the middle of next week into the following weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Frontal boundary approaching the northwest corner of the CWA at
forecast issuance time. This front is expected to move across all
terminals prior to 18z today.
Currently, IFR or lower conditions (primarily ceilings) occurring
at most terminals, with the exception being KBTR, which has MVFR
visibilities. All terminals will become VFR by 18z, and remain
that way for the remainder of the forecast period. May be a few
low level smoke/clouds around 05-07z tonight at a few locations
due to New Years fireworks, but with winds not expected to be
calm, don't expect flight restrictions.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024
Will continue the Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines for this
morning over the outer waters. Likely to be a relative lull in
wind/wave conditions for much of the day today before cold air
advection arrives over the waters tonight into Wednesday. Will
issue a Small Craft Advisory for the open waters and Breton and
Chandeleur Sounds overnight into Wednesday, which might need
expanded to all waters. Likely to also need headlines over the
weekend ahead of and behind that system, with some uncertainty in
exact timing or system strength at this point.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 68 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 73 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 75 40 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 74 46 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 74 42 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 78 39 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Wednesday for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
Wednesday for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 31, 5:57 AM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412311157-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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