CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 5, 4:47 AM EST
175
FXUS61 KCLE 050947
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
447 AM EST Sun Jan 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure today quickly gives way to a low pressure system
moving west to east south of the Ohio River that will produce
snowfall tonight into Monday for most of the area. Low pressure
lingers over the Great Lakes through mid week as the cold air in
place is reinforced.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Only light snow lingering in the snowbelt regions this morning as
low level moisture continues to gradually erode for those areas. Low
levels will begin a warm air advection at this time as well in
advance of the next system pushing northeastward towards the Ohio
Valley. Attention turns towards this region with a digging upper
level low and associated surface low mainly on a west to east track
south of the Ohio River. Mid level isentropic ascent will push into
the southern zones after 00Z Sunday marking the beginning of the
POPs for our CWA. Also will see mid level f-gen in play here as well
and will have a decent period of forcing from around 03-12Z tonight.
There are a couple issues, however, in terms of getting a more
efficient snowfall for this event. There is a dry layer to be
overcome beneath the forcing around 850mb that will exist during the
period of best omega within the crystal growth layer and likely will
not happen until the best forcing has moved out. The second issue
is that when the low levels finally saturate, the moisture that lies
within the crystal growth layer will dry out, losing the necessary
cloud physics, leading to inefficient snow. All in all, there are
many pieces of this system that are a bit out of phase. Now, that
said, expecting CWA-wide accumulating snowfall as the system
tracks through with the far southern zones in Knox County maxing
out in the 2-4 inch range, just coming in under Advisory
criteria. Will leave this area out of the headlines for now.
Other areas in the CWA around a half to 2 inches by Monday
afternoon/evening.
Widespread 20s again today, not as cold tonight with the clouds
returning and the low level warm air advection, and slightly milder
again Monday, but still below freezing, the theme going forward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mean layer flow behind the Ohio Valley low will shift northerly to
northwesterly by Monday night ushering in periods of lake effect
snow to develop through the short term period. Generally expecting a
few inches of snow across the primary and secondary snowbelts
through Tuesday night, though snow will likely be periodic as mid
level ridging and dry air building over the region. By Wednesday, an
upper trough will dip south across the region allowing for lake
effect snow showers to increase in coverage and intensity through
Wednesday night. Given vast synoptic moisture across the region and
persistent northwest flow, have much of the area seeing at least a
trace to a few tenths of snow on Wednesday with an additional few
inches of snow across the primary and secondary snowbelts.
High temperatures on Tuesday settle in the mid to upper 20s with
slightly cooler highs on Wednesday in the the low to mid 20s as
850mb temps drop into the -15 to -18C range. Overnight lows on
Monday and Tuesday night will drop into the teens each night. Much
cooler by Wednesday night as lows drop to the single digits to low
teens with sub-zero to low single digit wind chill values
possible.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lingering lake effect snow showers continue on Thursday but will
gradually dissipate through Thursday evening as a ridge of high
pressure builds overhead. We'll see a brief window of dry weather
Thursday night before our next system arrives on Friday. Still a fair
amount of uncertainty with this system but for now have chance PoPs
across much of the local forecast area Friday and Saturday.
High temperatures through the long term will gradually warm from the
low to mid 20s on Thursday to the upper 20s by Saturday. Another
chilly night on Thursday with overnight lows in the single digits to
low teens and low single digit wind chills possible. Lows on Friday
night will settle in the teens to low 20s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Snow coming to end across the region in the lake effect zones
CLE/CAK and east. Low level moisture has exited the western
terminals at FDY/TOL with high level clouds on the doorstep.
Low level cloud cover will not exit YNG/ERI during the scope of
this forecast issuance, however, but still should end up at VFR
for YNG while ERI stays MVFR through the entirety. Next low
pressure system will be moving in from the southwest with the
aforementioned high level clouds pushing in, and those ceilings
will gradually lower into 06Z Monday. Southwesterly winds will
become easterly.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periodic snow and low ceilings
Monday through Tuesday. Non-VFR will be possible thereafter
through Thursday with lake effect clouds and snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Low to mid level ridge of high pressure will build over the lake
through today which will allow for northwesterly winds to gradually
diminish from west to east. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect
through 4 PM this afternoon for the central and eastern basins.
Winds decrease below 10 knots by late this evening while gradually
shifting northeasterly overnight tonight. By Monday, northeasterly
winds increase to 15-25 knots with onshore flow allowing for wave
heights to build to 3-6 feet. Winds remain generally northerly to
northwesterly at 15-20 knots through late this week with periods of
wave heights building to 3-5 feet mainly across the central and
eastern basins. Sustained arctic airmass moves overhead this week
which will likely lead to the start of ice forming across the
western basin.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Campbell/26
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Iverson
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 5, 4:47 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501050947-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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