IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 5:59 AM EST
913
FXUS63 KIWX 011059
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
559 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Generally cold today through the coming weekend with frequent
chances for snow, including lake effect.
- Multiple bands of lake effect snow today bring around 1 inch
of snow to far southwest Michigan.
- A clipper system brings snow to communities south of US 30
Thursday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
A narrow band of lake effect precipitation has pushed well inland
this New Year's morning, bringing mainly rain to the office but
some small snowflakes were noted. This band will continue to
diminish quickly this morning due to its lake of lake connection at
this time. Low pressure near Pittsburgh sliding will ultimately give
way to west-northwest flow resulting in multi-bands of lake effect
snow today and into the coming night. Lake effect parameters are
sufficient, but far from blockbuster. Equilibrium levels are shy of
10k ft and the 850-mb temperature differential is right near 10C.
Saturation of the DGZ is poor during most of the day which will
result in modest snowflake sizes, but this improves after sunset
according to forecast soundings. However, lake effect will taper off
Wednesday night as drier air air arrives and equilibrium levels
decline further. Around 1 inch of accumulation is expected in the
favored west-northwest flow regions, perhaps up to 2" in the Berrien-
Cass border area.
Drying out by Thursday morning with crisp morning lows in the low-
20s; the coldest low temperature in about 10 days. High pressure
centered briefly over the Tennessee Valley is shunted east by a
shortwave of Pacific origin streaking through the CONUS. A tightly
packed low-level thermal gradient is ripe for a narrow band of
snowfall Thursday evening through early Friday morning. Snowfall is
favored primarily south of US 30 and the model concensus is
generally near 1 inch of snow, through these narrow bands can pack a
high punch over a very small area. High resolution guidance will be
monitored closely.
The weekend and into early next week continues to look cold with
intermittent opportunties for (lake effect) snow. I stayed close to
the inherited forecast with respect to lake effect snow amid rather
persistent northwest flow. Details remain sparse for the much-hyped
storm moving through a portion of the Midwest next week. The
magnitude of the parent trough continues to be a weak point. Cluster
analysis reveals a mix of solutions. As noted in this space 12 hours
ago, continue to seek weather information from reliable, trusted
sources.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM EST Wed Jan 1 2025
Happy New Year! Minimal changes were needed for the 12Z TAFs
this morning. It will be mainly dry (low chances for some lake
effect flurries) but considerable amounts of low level clouds
will linger. Ceilings are MVFR and should persist between 1500
to 3000 ft throughout the day. Winds will be gusty out of the
west today with gusts up to 25 kts possible, especially through
the morning and afternoon hours.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Thursday for LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 1, 5:59 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501011059-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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