ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 5:57 AM EST
547
FXUS61 KILN 021057
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
557 AM EST Thu Jan 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move southeast across the region tonight into
Friday, bringing some light accumulating snow. A strong low
pressure system will bring more significant wintry
precipitation to the Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Northwest flow and weak cyclonic low level flow will keep a few
flurries going through mid morning, especially across our
northeastern areas. Otherwise, weak high pressure will move
east across the Tennessee Valley today and this should allow
for some decrease in clouds, especially across our southern
areas.
Temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal today with
afternoon highs ranging from the mid 30s north to the upper 30s
south.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A weak mid level short wave and an associated low level trough
axis/cold front will move southeast across our area tonight
into Friday morning. Low level convergence along and ahead of
this will lead to a developing chance for snow across our
northwest heading into this evening, with the axis of snow then
shifting east-southeast across the remainder of our area
tonight into Friday morning. While the pcpn should be primarily
snow, forecast soundings are suggesting that the low levels may
be warm enough across our southwest to allow for some rain to
mix in initially.
SLRs will be in the 10 to 15:1 range with the highest SLRs
across our northern areas. As a result, expect the better
accumulations to be across our north, generally in the 1 to
possibly 2 inch range, with amounts across the south generally
less than an inch.
Good low level CAA will develop behind the front late tonight
into the day on Friday. Lows tonight will be in the mid to
upper 20s with highs on Friday only in upper 20s to lower 30s.
Brisk northwest winds will also develop behind the front with
gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range possible on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure wedges itself back into the Midwest region to
start the weekend. Colder air will be ushered in and lead to frigid
overnight lows in the teens Friday night. High temperatures on
Saturday and even Sunday generally remain in the 20s in our CWA.
After a dry start to the weekend, our attention turns to the
impactful system expected Sunday afternoon through early Monday. A
low pressure system strengthens off the lee side of the Rockies on
Sunday and takes an eastward track through the lower Ohio / upper
Tennessee Valleys. Given the more southern extent of this low
pressure track (and the cold ambient air temperatures already in
place), we are expecting wintry precipitation for all of our
counties throughout this event. One consistent feature in global
models has been a maximum QPF axis developing over the southern half
of our CWA. In fact, PWATs become 150-200% of normal by Sunday
night, highlighting the abundance of moisture present with this
system.
The challenging aspect to message with this system is that there
will likely be a notable gradient that develops in our southern OH/
northern KY counties on snowfall totals. This gradient will develop
as an H850 warm nose develops, leading to thermal profiles that
would favor more of a freezing rain and perhaps sleet scenario for
some counties during a portion of the event. Will have to monitor
trends in models as headlines may be needed to specifically
highlight ice impacts.
From a probabilistic view, it does appear likely that greater than 6
inches of snow is expected for a portion of our southern OH /
southeast IN counties. This would eventually warrant the need for a
Winter Storm Warning if this trend continues. Probabilities for the
same locations are around 50% for greater than 8 inches of snow,
highlighting the growing certainty for an impactful winter storm.
Snow totals in models start to gradually decrease as you head north
of the I-70 corridor.
After the winter storm moves through, our focus then shifts to an
extended period of bitterly cold temperatures. An Arctic air mass
settles into the region and continues to be reinforced with very
cold air throughout the work week and perhaps into the following
weekend (and beyond).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR stratocumulus across the region this morning will gradually
decrease in coverage through today as weak surface high
pressure moves across the Ohio Valley. A cold front will drop
southeast across the area later tonight through Friday morning.
As it does, snow will develop across the area tonight. This will
lead to MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs developing through the end
of the TAF period. Winds will shift around to the northwest
with gusts increasing to around 25 knots behind the front Friday
morning.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger through Friday evening. IFR
conditions in snow are becoming more likely from Sunday through
Monday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...JGL
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jan 2, 5:57 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202501021057-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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