IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 28, 6:15 PM EST
012
FXUS63 KIWX 282315
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
615 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Unseasonably warm temperatures as well as a soaking rain in
store overnight, lingering into Sunday.
- Another chance of light rain Tuesday, possibly mixing with
snow Tuesday night.
- Temperatures trend colder, especially into next weekend with
chances for lake effect snow showers at times.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Dry slot/subsidence in the wake of the departing wave has allowed
some breaks in the clouds with temperatures warming into the 50s,
well above normal for late December. Clouds will quickly fill back
in this evening ahead of the deepening trough moving through eastern
TX which will be responsible for a possible severe weather outbreak
across portions of MS/LA/AL prior to ejecting NE and become
negatively tilted as it tracks over the area Sunday afternoon. Sfc
low appears to track over SE parts of the area Sunday afternoon, but
some timing/final track differences linger. Where stronger agreement
seems to exist is with the track of the 700mb low, which tends to
focus the highest QPF amounts in a deepening/negatively tilted
system. This suggests that the highest precipitation is likely
to center somewhere between South Bend and Ft Wayne, especially
as the deformation zone sets up. That being said, overall QPF
amounts vary between the models with a potential tight gradient
in the NW that could be under an inch (maybe a fair amount
lower) and also a dry slot working into SE areas in the
afternoon. Forecast will still lean towards between 1 and 1.5",
heaviest in the area noted above. Trend has been for for a
somewhat slower arrival to the rainfall, with far southern
areas beginning to see precip arrive near/after 6Z and then
rapidly expanding N with the peak period between 9Z and 18Z. As
noted, depending on the final track of the sfc low, a dry slot
may advance across portions of the area, favoring parts of NW
Ohio that could reduce overall QPF somewhat and may (I stress
may) set the stage for a few thunderstorms around 21Z if enough
moisture arrives and heating occurs (steepening mid level lapse
rates). As the low wraps up, winds will increase Sunday and
linger into Sunday night with colder air filtering in behind the
low. Deepest moisture should be departing as this occurs, so
not concerned about any wintry precip at this point and even if
it did the warm road/ground temps would preclude
accumulations/impacts.
The upper low will settle into Ontario Monday with a brief lull in
precip prior to the arrival of another wave set to move from the
central Plains Monday morning to Kentucky by 12Z Tue with a sfc low
taking a similar track. While the highest potential likely resides
south of us, an area of light rain still looks to impact at least
the southern third to maybe half of the area Tuesday. Thermal
profiles still point towards rain (although a colder rain with 850
mb temps more +1 to +3 C) and maybe some mixing of snow towards the
end of the precip.
While some signals exist for lake effect snow showers in the Wed-Fri
time frame, have kept pops limited despite the arrival of
increasingly colder air (850 mb temps -10 C or low and resultant
delta Ts in the mid to upper teens) as moisture will be rather
sparse. Plenty of time to sort out those details, but suffice to say
temperatures trending back below normal will result in a much more
typical feel to the start of the new year.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
The short term we will see VFR conditions this evening before a
low pressure system will begin to move into the area later
tonight and bring widespread rainfall and MVFR conditions after
6-8z Sunday and further lowering of cigs/vsbys in moderate
rainfall will provide for IFR conditions after about 10-14z Sun
through the rest of the TAF period.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Andersen
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 28, 6:15 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412282315-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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