IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 28, 11:34 AM EST
855
FXUS63 KIWX 281634
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1134 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warm and primarily dry conditions expected today with highs in
the 50s.
- Widespread moderate rain arrives late tonight into Sunday
with many locations receiving an inch of rain.
- More rain is likely on Tuesday with a brief rain/snow mix
possible Tuesday night.
- Colder air returns for the end of next week with periodic lake
effect snow possible.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Pockets of drizzle or light rain have moved NE as dry slot
settles in across the area. All pops that were lingering this
morning have been removed as a result. Vis satellite does some
breaks in the clouds that may allow some filtered sunshine,
especially this afternoon which will help temperatures warm well
into the 50s (already there in some locations). While more
details will come with the afternoon package, have started a
slower onset to the expected rainfall, moreso towards 6Z and
after. Solid soaking rainfall still appears in store although
some finer details to sort out as we continue to peruse the 12Z
data.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Morning water vapor shows robust wave rapidly lifting into the
northern Great Lakes. Associated dry slot/occluded front is already
pushing through our area with an abrupt end to widespread precip. A
few isolated sprinkles/drizzle remain possible through the early
morning before dry air advection fully erodes residual low level
moisture around 11-14Z. Rest of today will be dry and could even see
some pockets of filtered sun if stratus deck erodes but this is
unlikely per latest hi-res forecast soundings. Temps will remain
roughly steady through the day with highs only a few degrees warmer
than current values.
Next shortwave lifts NE late tonight into Sunday. Similar dynamics
(deepening PV anomaly with a negatively-tilted trough axis) noted
with this wave but the track will be much further east...allowing
strong deformation band to set up over our CWA. Very deep and strong
fgen signal noted in model cross-sections with ample moisture. Still
anticipate around an inch of rain in the favored zone just NW of the
surface low track. Latest guidance in reasonable agreement on a
track along/just south of a line from IND-FWA-DTW placing our center
CWA in the favored region (though our SE will still see a good bit
of rain as well with the initial slug of warm/moist air advection
late tonight). No significant impacts noted given rivers still
running low and the ground remains unfrozen. Some ponding in typical
low spots is about all to be expected. Despite a strong wave and
ideal track...thermal profiles still appear just too warm for
anything other than rain. Despite very strong northerly flow on the
back-end Sun evening there is just not enough cold air upstream to
support anything more than a low chance of a brief rain/snow mix
before precip ends Sun night.
After mild and tranquil weather on Mon, next trough arrives Tue.
There remains considerable variability in model guidance regarding
the track and strength of this wave as well as the details of the
building Great Lakes longwave trough/upper low late next week. Much
of Tuesday's system will be just rain and chances for accumulating
snow remain low New Year's night despite a potential changeover just
before precip ends. LES will then be possible through much of the
second half of the week but important details such as flow
trajectories and instability profiles remain unresolvable at this
time range. Do expect a return to seasonable temps with highs in the
20s and low in the teens by Thu/Fri.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2024
Southwesterly winds will continue to diminish this afternoon,
becoming light and variable for a time this evening into the
early overnight. Some slightly drier air in between waves
should also allow for some improvement to high MVFR to low VFR
cigs during this time. Flight conditions then rapidly diminish
late tonight into Sunday morning as widespread rain overspreads
in advance of an approaching low pressure center.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Fisher
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 28, 11:34 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412281634-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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