IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 27, 5:40 PM EST
277
FXUS63 KIWX 272240
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
540 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild conditions will prevail through early next week, with
Saturday the warmest day as highs reach well into the 50s.
- Periods of rain this evening, late Saturday night into Sunday,
and again on Tuesday. The heaviest widespread rain is expected
on Sunday with an inch or more of rain likely.
- Colder, seasonable air arrives by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024
Occasionally wet and remaining mild through Tuesday as several
shortwaves lift through in moist/mild southwest flow. First wave is
shearing out as expected with moisture convergence on the nose of a
40-50 kt low level jet supporting periods of light rain and drizzle
this afternoon. Another shortwave and attendant weak sfc
reflection, quickly on the heels northeast through the western
Great Lakes, clips areas mainly along/west of Interstate 69
this evening into the early overnight with additional rain
showers in the vicinity of an incoming weak front.
Saturday still appears to be a mainly dry and mild day in between
systems. The aforementioned weak boundary and lingering boundary
layer moisture may allow for a few light showers/drizzle during the
AM hours with slight PoPs (20%) retained. Remaining cloudy to mostly
cloudy otherwise with highs into the mid to upper 50s.
12z model guidance has continued to trend toward a stronger and
farther west track to Sunday's deepening cyclone (EVV-FWA-DTW
track...or just east for the sfc low). The associated potent
shortwave has some room to breathe this time while taking on a
negative tilt and picking up an abundance of gulf moisture. A
healthy deformation rain band sets up over the area later
Saturday night through early Sunday evening with a 1" plus rain
event likely along and just west of the sfc low track. Where
exactly this sets up remains in question given lingering model
spread. There could be just enough dynamic cooling to allow for
a late mix with wet snow within the deformation zone late
Sunday. Chances are low but worth a passing mention here.
The final is this parade of pacific shortwaves still on target to
move through on Tuesday with rain likely. A pattern change to colder
(seasonable) northwest flow follows in time to start 2025 with
periodic lake effect snow shower chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 PM EST Fri Dec 27 2024
Predominant IFR flight rule overnight as weak moist ascent
spurning areas of dz and sct showers continues across the
terminals in response to disturbance aloft rotating through.
Some marginal improvement expected Sat morning commensurate with
arrival of mid lvl dryslot and better mixing within sw sfc
flow.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...T
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 27, 5:40 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412272240-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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