BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 11:51 PM EST
994
FXUS61 KBOX 260451
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1151 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will continue to provide dry weather through
much of this weekend. Ocean effect cloudiness will continue over the
Cape and Islands. An approaching low pressure will bring the
potential for mainly rain late Sunday into Monday, with perhaps a
bit of ice at the onset across the interior.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Model guidance continues to hint at an area of moisture/clouds to
move southwestward toward the east coast of southern New England
within the light NNW/N flow. So far (this afternoon), the more N/NW
flow has kept the main bank of clouds off the east coast while
clouds still drape across the Cape and Islands. There is still
potential for the clouds to move on shore as surface flow weakens
further this evening. As this area of clouds/moisture moves westward
into this evening the Cape may see a stray light snow shower,
possibly mixing in with some freezing drizzle ("snizzle").
Otherwise, quiet weather is expected overnight with surface high
pressure and light northerly flow. Most areas will be mainly clear
tonight allowing for optimal radiational cooling. Temperatures drop
into the teens across the interior with single digits in the higher
elevation spots. It will stay warmer closer to the coast, especially
across the Cape and immediate east coast where lower clouds will try
to anchor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday will feature high pressure and dry conditions. Lower
clouds across the east/SE MA will gradually scatter mid to late
morning. The Cape will be slower to erode with improvements into
the afternoon. Otherwise, expect a mainly sunny day in most
areas with high temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
Another clear night Thursday night with dry conditions and
temperatures dropping into the teens for the interior and 20s
elsewhere.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* High pressure continues to support dry/mild weather across
southern New England Friday
* Mild conditions persist into this weekend, but with increasing
cloudiness and precipitation chances
* Trending unsettled early next week with the potential for multiple
substantial precipitation events
Have rather high confidence in the forecast details through
Saturday, then some differences creep into the overall synoptic
pattern. Overall, expecting a warming trend through the end of this
year. Thus, the majority of any precipitation we see should be rain.
The exception to that statement may be Saturday night into Sunday
morning, when a period of freezing rain is possible. This will all
come down to the precise location of a warm front. With a departing
high pressure off to our east, this remains an uncertain aspect to
this forecast. It would not be much of a surprise to find later
forecasts have a slower timing, which would mitigate this risk.
Additional low pressures Monday into Tuesday, and again towards
Wednesday should provide more opportunities for rainfall. This is
not to say it will be precipitating this entire time, but the trend
is there for more unsettled weather.
Temperatures continue to trend above normal into early next week,
especially beyond Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06Z TAF:
Through 12Z: High Confidence
VFR except MVFR at Cape/Islands under light north/northwest
winds. Moderate confidence that cigs at BOS will eventually
reach MVFR levels.
Thursday: High Confidence (stratus departure)
MVFR cigs at BOS scatter out by 13Z. MVFR persists over
Cape/Islands. VFR elsewhere with light winds.
Tonight and Tomorrow...High Confidence
VFR. Light north/northwest winds tonight become light out of the
west/southwest by Friday evening.
KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence
Moderate confidence in MVFR ceilings developing by 09Z and
eventually scattering out by 13Z. High confidence in VFR
thereafter.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. VFR with light N winds.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: VFR.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA, slight chance FZRA.
Saturday Night through Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible.
Chance RA, chance FZRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. RA likely.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Small Craft Advisories continue in effect (east outer waters)
through early tonight. This evening, winds continue to weaken
with seas dropping to 2-4 ft by Thursday morning.
High pressure will lead to calm conditions with wave heights 2-4
feet and N winds 10-15 kts.
Outlook /Friday through Monday/...
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain.
Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.
Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Mensch
NEAR TERM...Belk/Mensch
SHORT TERM...Mensch
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Loconto/RM
MARINE...Belk/Mensch
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 11:51 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412260451-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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