IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 6:26 PM EST
534
FXUS63 KIWX 252326
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
626 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Remaining cloudy with pockets of drizzle, light rain, and fog
tonight and into Thursday.
- Locally dense fog possible tonight into Thursday morning,
especially along and north of US 24.
- Unseasonably mild with periodic rain chances Friday through
this weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 115 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
Dreary wx will persist into tonight and most of Thursday as moisture
remains trapped beneath a resident subsident inversion. An increase
in drizzle and spotty light rain coverage is also expected this
afternoon into tonight thanks to ongoing low level moist isentropic
upglide associated with a disjointed mid level shortwave lifting
through from the lower MS Valley. Temperatures will luckily
remain above freezing with no travel impacts outside of locally
dense fog that could materialize tonight into Thursday morning,
especially along and north of US 24. Drizzle/fog chances then
diminish into Thursday afternoon-night as slightly drier-warmer
air attempts to advect in as winds take on a more southerly
trajectory, and the aforementioned weak shortwave exits.
Friday into this weekend will feature a mild and occasionally wet
pattern. This will occur in response to a strong pacific jet carving
out troughing across the Rockies and Central US, with a parade of
shortwaves lifting through in moist/mild southwest flow locally.
High confidence remains with the first shortwave and associated
ascent/moisture plume to lift through on Friday with a period of
light to moderate rain. Additional rounds of vorticity/moisture
advection keeps rain chances in the forecast into Saturday and
Sunday, though much lower confidence by this time given model timing
differences of small scale shortwaves and the potential for deeper
moisture to get shunted off to the southeast. Unseasonably mild
otherwise with Saturday likely the warmest day (highs in the mid to
upper 50s).
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
With high pressure to the east of the area, moisture flux is towards
the region from the south out in front of a low pressure system. A
lobe of high pressure pokes back eastward, which often indicates a
stagnant pattern so it makes sense that moisture would get stuck in
the area in the form of fog, drizzle, and mist. The dryness
just north of the area coinciding with the stagnant lobe of the
high pressure system peels off to the northeast Thursday morning
and that should allow for some moderation back into MVFR flight
conditions. Aviation guidance does appear to slow the
moderation until midday or the afternoon on Thursday. Winds do
appear to pick up so perhaps this just becomes stratus Thursday
afternoon.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 6:26 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412252326-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!