IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 12:31 PM EST
328
FXUS63 KIWX 251731
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1231 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Remaining cloudy with areas of drizzle or light rain accompanied
by patchy fog into Thursday.
- Several quick moving systems along with periods of rain will
track across the area from Friday through next Wednesday.
- Temperatures will be much above normal, especially Friday
through Sunday when highs will reach into the 50s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
A weak upper level system was just south of the forecast area.
The GFS isentropic 300K surface showed weak lift today into
tonight with reasonable saturation over southern areas. Dual-
pol radar showed the melting/freezing layer from about 4K to 7K
feet which matches the HRRR sounding near Logansport. An AWOS
reported light snow according to the sensor, but indications are
precipitation should be either drizzle or more probable...
light rain. Surface temperatures have dipped below freezing over
northern Indiana early this morning with Angola falling well
below freezing with some breaks in the clouds there. Can not
rule out a brief instance of freezing rain, but have kept just
rain or drizzle in the forecast for now. No weather related
travel issues are expected and even the fog is not expected to
become widespread or dense.
Otherwise, mild air will continue to spread over the forecast
area from the southwest causing temperatures to rise much above
normal. Several weaker systems in the large scale flow are
expected to bring subsequent rounds of rain through the end of
the year next Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
No significant changes were made with the 18Z TAFs with a
continued high confidence in LIFR/IFR conditions through much of
the period. Broad warm, moist advection continues across
northern Indiana this afternoon downstream of an upper level
short wave lifting northeast out of the Lower MS Valley. This
advective forcing will continue to provide some low level lift,
especially this afternoon through the early parts of the
overnights. Light rain, drizzle, fog, and lowering cigs will
accompany this pattern, with a trend to cigs below 500 feet
through the afternoon/early evening. Low level subsidence beings
to increase late tonight, but there will be little impetus for
dramatic aviation weather improvement. By mid-late morning on
Thursday, low level flow should ramp up somewhat which could
provide enough low level mixing to improve conditions to MVFR,
particularly at KFWA.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Marsili
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 12:31 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412251731-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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