IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 2:27 PM EST
629
FXUS63 KIWX 231927
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- The risk of freezing rain has ended as temperatures are now at
or above freezing.
- A brief period of rain is expected from west to east this
evening. Drying out overnight.
- Notably warmer with chances for rain starting Wednesday. Highs
will be in the 40s Thursday followed by 50s Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
The freezing rain winter weather advisory has failed to materialize
thus far and has been canceled. Persistent mid-level dry air, lagged
forcing, and ultimately hourly temperatures warmer than expected
have allowed the FZRA risk to end. The upper-level low responsible
for this risk of wintry weather is over southern WI where rain and
snow is being reported. This will arrive to our area near/after
sunset and a brief period of rain is anticipated before ending.
By that time, however, temperatures are forecast to remain in
the mid-30s and the overall precipitation duration will be brief
(perhaps 3 hours or less). In the wake of that low, cold air
briefly appears before warm air advection resumes Tuesday
afternoon bringing highs in the upper- 30s.
There is a 30% chance of rain Wednesday, primarily in the afternoon
as a trough gradually ejects into the Souther Plains. Cluster
analysis reveals discrepancies with the magnitude of the trough and
its eastward progress. In addition to this, lingering 700mb dry air
over our region is slow to retreat. This is especially true across
far northern areas. Therefore, have done my best to advocate lower
pops toward the Michigan state line. Those south of US 24 have the
greatest chance of rain.
There is some concern that drizzle or mist could persist area-
wide Wednesday through the end of the week. This, as lobes of
vorticity interact with lingering low-level moisture. For now,
increased sky cover in this pattern and set POPs to a minimum of
10% for now.
The better chance of area-wide rain is Friday night through
Saturday. Amid an active mid-latitude jet stream yet another trough
ejects into the Southern Plains and is buckled northward against a
Southeast ridge. A notable slug of rain falls across the Ohio Valley
due to excellent Gulf moisture and the deepening trough. By this
time, high temperatures will be in the 50s negating any winter-
weather concerns. Cooler, more seasonable, air briefly returns early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM EST Mon Dec 23 2024
Have continued the trend from the previous forecaster of being
pessimistic with cloud cover, especially at KSBN this afternoon
and evening. The NBM has high probabilities (70-80%) of MVFR
ceilings at KSBN this afternoon and about a 25% probabilities
for IFR ceilings at KSBN this evening. Low and mid level clouds
will likely persist as the upper level clipper system moves
through the area. Light rain showers and patchy drizzle will be
possible today; with perhaps some fog and mist lowering
visibilities to 2 to 4 miles this afternoon through 06Z Tuesday.
Winds could gust as high as 25 kts today before subsiding
overnight.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 23, 2:27 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412231927-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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