PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 27, 6:12 AM CST
205
FXUS63 KPAH 271212
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Widespread rain showers early this morning with more
scattered light rain or drizzle possible into the afternoon.
- Additional widespread rainfall expected late Saturday into
Sunday.
- Above normal temperatures through the weekend and early next
week will trend cooler by midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Rain is spreading north across the region this morning as an
upper level disturbance swings through bringing enhanced low
level flow and moisture transport. There isn't much if any CAPE
aloft to speak of with the closest lightning activity well south
of the area. The RAP does advect some weak MUCAPE across
southern portions of the area this morning, so can't rule out a
rumble of thunder. Much of the rain will be coming to an end
from SW to NE late this morning as drier mid level air works
its way in. Plenty of low level moisture will hang around today
with a chance of light rain or drizzle. QPF amounts of a quarter
to a half inch are expected for the morning activity. Highs
should reach the upper 50's to near 60 degrees.
Behind a second upper level disturbance tonight, we should see
a short break between systems as the next trough organizes off
the Rockies. Much of tonight into early Saturday looks dry. The
next trough to our west will drive a deepening surface low
across the southern plains and into the midsouth Saturday night
eventually reaching the Ohio Valley by Sunday. Any severe threat
will likely be tied to the track of the surface low and how far
north the warm front makes it. So we will need to keep a close
eye on how much instability can work its way north Saturday
night especially with more than enough shear. As of now though,
the strong to severe storm chances remain to our south. Rain
will once again spread through the area associated with this
disturbance with better chances toward the eastern half of the
area. Clouds and light rain may stick around into Sunday as
additional disturbances push through northwest flow aloft.
Moving into next week, surface high pressure will move across
the northern Gulf with upper level height rises across our
region. Drier weather is expected for Monday with highs in the
mid 50's to lower 60's. Another upper level disturbance will
drive a surface low across the plains and Quad State on Tuesday.
We should see another chance of rain with this system with
better chances across the northern half of the area. Cooler
temperatures expected from Tuesday into Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024
Rain showers, some heavy at times, is pushing north and will be
impacting MVN/EVV/OWB over the next few hours. More isolated to
scattered activity develops behind this through the rest of the
morning with possibly some drizzle activity during the
afternoon. MVFR to IFR cigs and visby is expected much of today,
especially with any shower activity. Southeast winds will
increase in the morning and then become south in the afternoon.
Gusts 20-25kts will be possible through the day.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 27, 6:12 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412271212-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!