PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 5:44 AM CST
989
FXUS63 KPAH 251144
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
544 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- More light rain expected today and tonight across the region.
- Unsettled weather returns Thursday night through Saturday as
multiple weather systems move across the area.
- Above normal temperatures are expected the rest of the week
and especially the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
The upper level pattern on this Christmas morning features a
couple of disturbances, one moving into the Rockies, and another
centered across the plains. Early morning radar shows scattered
light rain across much of the area associated with low level
warm air advection. The disturbance across the plains will
slowly edge eastward today, with a weak surface reflection
across the Arklatex region. An inverted trough will extend
north of this feature, across Arkansas and into Missouri. Some
jet support aloft will overspread the region today and along
with the inverted trough will favor light rain. The highest
PoPs will be favored across SEMO and southern Illinois. Areas of
fog may also develop today. This activity will slowly spread
eastward into tonight as the trough axis moves across the region
and de-amplifies.
Attention quickly turns west as the trough previously mentioned
in the Rockies digs into the plains. This system will drive a
weak surface low into portions of the region Thursday night into
Friday. Guidance has this system taking on a negative tilt as
it pushes across the region with increasing upper level ascent
overspreading the region. Rain showers will spread eastward
through the region late Thursday and into Friday. Instability
looks minimal with this system as dewpoints struggle to climb
into the 50's, at least until later Friday. There is a signal
for localized moderate to heavy rainfall as low level wind
fields increase. With the region on the nose of the low level
jet, moisture flux may become locally maximized. This system
pushes through fairly quickly though limiting the flood threat.
Another system moves in behind it for Friday night into
Saturday. Again, this system looks to take a negative tilt as it
pushes through the region. Guidance actually depicts just a bit
more instability with this system as dewpoints climb into the
low to mid 50's. However, confidence on even this amount of
instability is low given the short time between systems likely
limiting recovery. Another round of showers and maybe storms
will accompany this system but better chances may be confined to
eastern portions of the area. A third system is on tap to
rotate into the plains and make a pass through the region late
Saturday into Sunday. A surface low is advertised to develop in
the southern plains and lift through the midsouth. This will
keep rain chances in the forecast through Saturday night, with
higher PoPs further east.
Temperatures this week and weekend will be on the rise. Highs
reach the upper 50's to low 60's on Friday and make a run for
the mid 60's on Saturday. After the late Saturday system high
pressure settles in from the west beneath northwest flow aloft.
This will bring drier conditions back to the area with cooler
temperatures to start next week. Looking toward the end of the
extended, models suggest another storm system will take shape
across the plains which should bring more unsettled weather to
end the year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CST Wed Dec 25 2024
Light rain will move through the region today with highest
chances across western terminals. MVFR cigs & vsbys will begin
to build in from the west later this morning into the afternoon
hours, impacting terminals KCGI/KMVN. VFR is forecast elsewhere,
although temporary reductions in visby or cigs are possible
under any heavier rains. Coverage becomes more scattered tonight
with lower confidence IFR conditions at KCGI/KMVN. Winds will
be light through the period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 5:44 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412251144-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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