IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 12:21 PM EST
933
FXUS63 KIWX 221721
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1221 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wintry mix is likely to cause travel impacts Monday,
especially near and north of the Michigan border.
- Very mild weather is ahead Thursday through this upcoming
weekend with highs mainly in the 50s.
- There are numerous chances for rain Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
Snow flurries in the Ft Wayne area caused by industries will end
today with virtually no impacts. A much better chance for weather
related travel impacts is ahead Monday as the leading edge of
mild air reaches the forecast area and rides over a retreating
cold wedge of air. Isentropic lift per GFS and NAM 295K & 300K
surfaces will stay relatively weak and will limit precipitation
amounts. The warm layer will be very close to the rain/freezing
rain and snow threshold. There is potential per colder HRRR that
Hillsdale may receive 3" of snow. After coordination with WPC
and neighboring NWS offices have kept snow amounts under an
inch. Given very cold surface/ground/pavement temperatures at
the onset of this event, believe there is a window of a few to
several hours for for roads to become slippery as the light wintry
mix moves over the area. The cold ground temperatures will lag
the warming air temperatures bringing the potential for the
formation of a thin layer of ice. Conditions should improve
Monday afternoon as temperatures rise above freezing. Otherwise,
very mild air will overspread the area Thursday and persist
through this upcoming weekend. There is a lot of energy in
the form of short wave trofs mainly of Pacific origin that will
bring numerous chances for rain during this period.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
VFR conditions through the rest of today and likely the
overnight period with just some mid and high clouds due to weak
ridging over the area. Bigger problems will arise on Monday
morning with mid-level warm air advection and cold temperatures
still at the surface giving a chance of freezing rain at SBN
between 12Z and 16Z. FWA should warm up enough before the rain
makes it there around 17Z that they will probably just see all
rain. Southerly winds will become breezy with gusts 20 to 25 kts
on Monday morning.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Cobb
Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 12:21 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412221721-KIWX-FXUS63-AFDIWX)
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