LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 26, 12:15 PM EST
572
FXUS63 KLMK 261715
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1215 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Drier weather this afternoon and evening, with above normal
temperatures peaking in the 50s by this afternoon
* Active pattern brings waves of rainfall Friday through Sunday
and then again Tuesday
* Well above normal temperatures through at least Monday
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 911 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
Weak surface trough remains across the area, with main noticeable
feature being just enough lift to force an east west line of high-
ceiling rains across our area. NAM time height sections shows some
subsidence this afternoon and thinning of the moisture layer
associated with this band, so expect a drying trend the later in the
day we get. Did bump pops up a little for the rest of the morning
hours though. Not seeing much in the way of visibility reductions
via area METAR's, so the chances for measurable rainfall still are
fairly low (~20 percent) over our southern IN and the north half of
our KY counties. Rest of the forecast looks good. Will send out
updated products shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
Light rain and drizzle are across the region this morning as a weak
inverted sfc trof sits overhead. Aloft, a 300mb shortwave axis is
pushing east of us, with upper ridging following for later today.
Expect light precip activity to diminish through this morning as
this sfc trof washes out. Drier weather is expected for late morning
and through the afternoon and evening, with any additional precip
activity for today focusing on areas to our west later. It's
possible we could see a few isolated patches of light rain or
sprinkles linger in our far western counties into the early
afternoon, though chances remain below 25%.
Increased cloud cover will linger for most today, but could see some
breaks in the clouds this afternoon, especially in our east. With
southeasterly flow continuing to provide a WAA regime, temps for
this afternoon will peak in the 50s region-wide. South-central
Kentucky counties will be close to 60, and may reach it if they get
any decent breaks in the cloud cover later today. These temps will
place us about 10-15 degrees above climate normals.
Dry weather continues for most of the night, though it will remain
very mild thanks to strengthening WAA ahead of a sfc low pressure
system. A deep upper shortwave over Texas will pivot towards the
Ozarks tonight and take on a negative tilt, which will promote
increasing southerly low-level jetting and moisture transport for
the Deep South and Tennessee Valley, with the Wabash River Valley
and lower Ohio Valley being on the far northern extent tonight. This
will keep temps in the 40s tonight.
There remains good model agreement on nighttime storms approaching
the area early Friday morning from the west-southwest, but
fortunately the timing will not be favorable for sfc-based
instability. General consensus here is that we will most likely see
a fading line of embedded thunderstorms arrive sometime Friday
morning. Due to this, we'll return PoPs back in the forecast by 09z
Friday morning, with an eastward progression up to 12z. However,
better overall chances will be from 12z and beyond, which is in the
Long Term Discussion below.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
Friday through Sunday Night...
Friday through Sunday continues to look quite active with at least a
few noteworthy waves of rainfall. A series of shortwave disturbances
aloft are forecast to swing northeast from the southern
Plains/Ozarks across the Ohio Valley. Wave 1 arrives Friday morning,
characterized by strong low to mid-level wind fields, robust deep-
layer ascent, and potent moisture advection. Expect breezy
conditions and a band of moderate rain translating eastward across
central KY and southern IN during the daylight hours. Forecast
instability is nil, so the thunder chances are low despite strong
forcing. Rainfall totals of 0.30-0.70 inches will be possible from
12Z Fri to 00Z Sat, with the higher totals in that range across
south-central KY. Temperatures are forecast to be well above normal,
with highs in the mid/upper 50s.
Will maintain chance to likely PoPs Friday night, though QPF is much
lower with the arrival of a dry slot of the wave lifting northeast
over the MS Valley. Deep southerly flow will keep conditions very
mild for late December, with lows in the low to mid 50s.
A somewhat deeper wave organizing over the southern Plains on
Saturday is forecast to swing northeast across the Ohio Valley
through Sunday. The dynamics late Saturday into early Sunday look
pretty healthy, with sfc cyclogenesis favored near the Lower OH
Valley beneath the right entrance region of an intensifying upper
level jet streak over the Great Lakes. With somewhat anomalous
(NAEFS PW standardized anomaly > 1) moisture still in place, swaths
of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. There is at least a
slight chance for thunderstorms, and the convective nature could
locally boost rainfall totals. However, the degree of
destabilization (if any) is the big question mark given less than
ideal diurnal timing and potential for deep convection across the
South. An additional 1-2 inches of rainfall will be possible over
the weekend in central KY, with locally higher amounts not out of
the question. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s will be common over
the weekend, with lows mostly in the 50s.
Monday through New Year's Day...
We'll see a brief lull in the action in the wake of the departing
weekend storm system, with upper level flow transitioning to a more
zonal pattern. Monday looks dry and mild, with highs in the mid 50s
to near 60 degrees. However, yet another Pacific wave is forecast to
strengthen in the lee of the Rockies and bring additional rain
chances by Monday night or early Tuesday. A switch to a colder
pattern then looks likely to kick off the new year. Much colder air
could flood the region by the latter half of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM EST Thu Dec 26 2024
Continue to have a band of light rain showers along the I-64
corridor this hour. That band is making progress northward and
should be clear of those terminals by 18Z, so will not include in
this forecast. Not seeing any vsby or cig concerns along it. Rest of
the afternoon/evening should be quiet for all terminals. Winds will
start to pick up from the south just above the surface overnight,
but not quite to LLWS mention. A line of showers is expected to move
in from the southwest Friday morning, reaching the KLEX terminal
around lunchtime. Expect lower cigs, likely at least MVFR-level,
that likely will persist behind the initial wave of rains at all
sites.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...EBW
AVIATION...RJS
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 26, 12:15 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412261715-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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