CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 6:29 AM EST
993
FXUS61 KCLE 251129
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
629 AM EST Wed Dec 25 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through Friday. A low pressure
system will move northeast into the Upper Midwest on Saturday,
lifting a warm front north across the region. This low will
then extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Much of the near term period will continue to be dreary and
mild with periods of light rain and widespread clouds as high
pressure persists across the Eastern Great Lakes, trapping
abundant low-level moisture underneath a shallow inversion.
Clouds may begin to dissipate by Thursday afternoon as upper-
level ridging becomes more established across the area with an
increase in southerly winds resulting from warm air advection.
For today, a weakening upper-level shortwave will move east
through the Great Lakes, though the influence of surface high
pressure and mid- level dry air should limit precipitation to
mainly isolated light rain showers. Have also been dealing with
some patchy dense fog this morning and given the light flow
influenced by high pressure, it will likely take until mid-
morning before full dissipation takes place where fog currently
persists.
By Thursday, a developing low pressure system across the
Central and Southern Plains will allow the upper-level ridge
across the Eastern CONUS to become more established and
amplified, increasing warm air advection into the region. In
response, high temperatures should increase into the mid to
perhaps upper 40s by Thursday afternoon, though will be largely
dependent on how fast residual cloud cover takes to dissipate.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A series of troughs lifting out of the southern Plains will bring
increasing moisture, chances of precipitation, and above normal
temperatures to the area during the short term. Surface high
pressure will continue to influence the region into Friday before
the first shortwave approaches the Great Lakes Region. Pops increase
Friday afternoon into Friday night as a warm front lifts north. The
highest pops during this time are in the west where low levels are
faster to moisten. Mid-level dry slot does wrap in from the south on
Friday night with any remaining precipitation becoming light in
nature. Temperatures on Friday will be solidly in the mid to upper
40s while temperatures on Saturday will be mostly in the 50s (except
portions of NW Pennsylvania). Southerly winds will be breezy on
Saturday but an inversion is likely to keep the stronger winds of 30-
35 knots near 925mb from mixing down. Another good push of moisture
arrives on Saturday afternoon and evening with rainfall amounts of
0.50-1.00 inch expected. Given the moist and mild conditions have
trended overnight lows up closer to raw model guidance.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures during the long term are likely to still be above
normal although trending cooler with time. In addition the pattern
looks active as a longwave trough progresses eastward from the
Plains states. On Sunday a weak area of surface low pressure will
cross the Upper Great Lakes and move north towards James Bay ahead
of shortwave energy lifting north from the Midwest. A trailing north
to south oriented cold front will cross the area on Sunday and drop
temperatures back down into the 40s for Monday.
A 140 knot upper level jet will cause the longwave trough to take on
a negative tilt as it curls northeast up the eastern seaboard Sunday
night. Discrepancies exist between long range models as to weather
low pressure tracks up the east or west side of the Appalachians
Sunday night into Monday. A western track would bring more
precipitation to end the weekend while a more eastward track would
yield lower chances of precipitation. High pressure quickly builds
in on Monday while another area of low pressure tracks out of the
Plains on Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mixed-bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR this morning, associated with
both lower ceilings and vsbys from mist/fog. Do anticipate any
sites currently at VFR to drop into MVFR at some point later this
morning. IFR conditions are most likely to persist at MFD into
this afternoon and return at TOL/FDY later this evening.
Ceilings may gradually lift to low-end VFR towards the end of
the TAF period this evening and overnight.
Winds are generally light and variable this morning. Winds will
begin to favor an easterly direction, around 5 knots, by later
this afternoon and evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR in low ceilings and/or light rain showers will
likely persist into Thursday morning. Non- VFR may return on
Saturday and Sunday in rain.
&&
.MARINE...
Quiet stretch of marine conditions for late December expected over
the next several days. High pressure will influence the eastern
Great Lakes through Friday as it builds to New England with light
winds of 15 knots or less out of the east. A warm front will lift
north on Friday night with winds veering to the south and increasing
to 10-20 knots on Saturday. A weak cold front will cross Lake Erie
on Sunday. There is still some uncertainty with regards to the track
and strength of low pressure on Sunday which could result in rougher
conditions. Stay in touch with forecasts over the coming days as we
narrow in on storm track and strength early next week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Kahn
NEAR TERM...Kahn
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...KEC
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 25, 6:29 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412251129-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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