LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 9:08 PM CST ...New UPDATE...
672
FXUS64 KLIX 190308
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
908 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 858 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
Frontal boundary appears to be somewhere close to the Interstate
10/12 corridors, but any significantly drier air hasn't made it
much further south than Natchez or McComb through 9 PM CST. Most
of the earlier precipitation across the northwest portion of the
area has pretty much dissipated, although can't entirely rule out
a sprinkle or two right along the boundary. With the cold air not
in the area yet, it's too early to justify a change in the
overnight low temperature forecast.
Will be issuing update shortly to remove the precipitation from
the forecast and eliminate the afternoon portion.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
The incoming cold front is knocking on our northwestern doorstep
this afternoon. The front should sweep through the area by
midnight, bringing down temps and drying us out. A few factors are
against rainfall with this front: a weak front, unfavorable
diurnal timing, and weakening dynamic. Thus PoPs were lowered to
blend with the HREF guidance. Temps were also slightly lowered to
account for the cold air advection behind the front.
Cold air advection looks to still be over the area Thursday and
Friday morning, so temps were also lowered to account for that
during that timeframe. Otherwise, continental dry air will keep us
dry for the short-term and closer to normal temperatures.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
The main story of the long term period will be an arctic front
approaching the area on Friday. This will cause overnight low
temperatures to return to freezing or below, mainly for far northern
areas and drainage areas. Dropped temperatures some in these areas
as the NBM tends to struggle with those areas and strong CAA behind
fronts. Afternoon high temperatures also return to the 50s after a
period of being a good 10 degrees above the climate normals. No
precipitation is expected with this front. Our next rain chances
arrive through early week ahead of the next frontal system. While a
white Christmas is definitely out of the question at this point, a
wet Christmas may be in store.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
Prefrontal trough appears to be close to a KASD to KHUM line, with
frontal boundary on the leading edge of the cooler, drier air
moving into the northwest portion of the CWA at forecast issuance
time. All terminals were reporting VFR conditions at that time.
Precipitation was approaching KBTR, but earlier TSRA near KHZR had
weakened and have removed VCTS out of the KBTR terminal and
replaced it with VCSH. Ceilings are expected to deteriorate later
this evening behind the front as lower levels become saturated.
Cloud bases of the lower deck are likely to lower to around FL008
to FL015 from west to east. Could also be some minor visibility
restrictions for a few hours, even as light rain gradually
dissipates. Cloud deck expected to mix out by mid to late morning
Thursday as drier air pours into the area. Beyond midday Thursday,
most terminals may not even see a cloud below cirrus level through
the weekend. Northerly winds could briefly gust to 20 knots or a
bit higher to the south of Lake Pontchartrain at KNEW and KMSY
later tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 231 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024
Following the front moving through later tonight we will see winds
pick up out of the north. Winds strengthen to exercise caution
criteria, around 15-20kts, after midnight tonight. A much stronger
front pushes through Friday, bringing another increase in winds. We
likely start to approach Small Craft criteria by late Friday night
through early Saturday. Winds ease once again over the weekend ahead
of our next system into early next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 43 60 37 60 / 30 0 0 0
BTR 47 66 41 66 / 30 0 0 0
ASD 50 67 40 65 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 53 64 45 65 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 51 65 41 65 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 51 69 38 68 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...HL
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 18, 9:08 PM CST ...New UPDATE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412190308-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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