MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 19, 5:23 AM CST ...New AVIATION...
978
FXUS64 KMOB 191123
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
523 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
A deck of IFR/low end MVFR stratus will continue to move south
across the forecast area today under northerly flow around 10
knot. By this evening, the status is expected to have moved south
of the coast, with winds around 5 knots expected overnight.
/16
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 328 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024/
..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
An upper level shortwave trough over the Southeast moves off today
with a cold front moving south over the Gulf into this morning.
Another upper trough passes north of the Southeast late tonight into
Friday with a reinforcing front moving south over the forecast area
late Friday into Friday night in response. Temperatures drop closer
to near seasonal norms behind the first front, with high
temperatures today ranging from around 60 north of Highway 84 to
near 70 along the western Florida panhandle coast. Tonight,
temperatures dropping into the upper 30s generally north of I-10 are
expected, around 40 to the upper 40s south to the coast. Friday sees
a bit more of a drop in temperatures, mainly along and south of I-
10. Around 60s well north of I-10 to around 65 south of I-10. Friday
night will see the biggest drop, with freezing temperatures over
most of the forecast area north of I-10, mid 30s to near 40 south.
Northerly flow is expected over the northern Gulf, with a low risk
of rip currents into Friday.
/16
SHORT THROUGH LONG TERMS...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
Another shortwave trough moves through a now mean upper trough over
the eastern Conus, shifting the mean trough east. Surface high
pressure near the Mississippi River shifts east to near the East
Coast by Sunday night in response, shifting low level flow to
easterly Sunday night into Monday night. As the surface high moves
off the East Coast in the coming week, southeasterly flow returns to
the Southeast Tuesday and Gulf moisture begins to move inland.
Guidance is advertising enough moisture for rain showers and a few
thunderstorms to begin to move north over the northern Gulf of
Mexico Monday night into Tuesday. Inconsistencies in instability and
upper support Tuesday through Wednesday make pinning down any chance
of strong to severe weather at this point very difficult, so will
continue to monitor at this time
Temperatures start the weekend well below seasonal norms, with high
temperatures Saturday generally in the low to mid 50s. High
temperatures see a rise into the coming week, with upper 60s to low
70s expected by Wednesday. Saturday night is expected to be the
coldest night, with low temperatures ranging from the mid 20s well
north of Highway 84 to mid/upper 30s south of I-10. By Tuesday
night, low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s north of Highway
84 to mid/upper 50s south of I-10 are expected.
Northerly flow is expected along the coast through the weekend
before becoming east to southeasterly in the coming week. A moderate
Risk of Rip Currents is expected Monday.
/16
MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Thu Dec 19 2024
General light to moderate offshore flow is expected into Sunday
before shifting to east to southeast in the coming week.
Periods of moderate to strong flow will mix in, especially over open
Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Friday night into
Saturday and again early in the coming week.
/16
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 19, 5:23 AM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412191123-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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