ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 2:00 PM EST
279
FXUS61 KILN 221900
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift off to the east through tonight.
Developing southerly flow will lead to a warming trend through
the end of the week along with occasional chances for rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Some high and mid level clouds will drift across the area at
times tonight as the surface high continues to shift off to our
east. With light winds, will undercut temperatures a few
degrees again, especially across our east, closer to the ridge
axis. Will range lows from the teens in the far east to the
low/mid 20s in the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening mid level short wave will drop down across the
Great Lakes Monday into Monday night as an associated weak
frontal boundary approaches our area from the northwest.
Increasing southwest flow ahead of this will allow for some weak
moisture advection up into our area Monday afternoon and Monday
night. This will eventually lead to a developing chance for
showers across our northwest later Monday afternoon, with pcpn
chances then shifting southeast across the remainder of our area
Monday night.
Given the developing low level WAA, thermal profiles will
support all rain with this system. The one concern would be
if pcpn moves into our northwest fast enough Monday afternoon,
as ground/pavement temperatures may still be below freezing
since we are coming out of an extended cold period. As of now
the METRo road model is showing pavement temps going above
freezing by early afternoon in our north, shortly before any
pcpn moves into the northwest. Highs on Monday will range from
near 40 degrees in the far north to the mid 40s in our south.
Lows Monday night will be in the mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short wave energy and its associated surface low pressure will track
east from the Great Lakes into New England Monday night into
Tuesday. A trailing cold front will make inroads into northern
Indiana and northern Ohio, but this looks to weaken and eventually
wash out sometime on Tuesday. In any case, there will be a chance of
rain with the highest PoPs expected for our northeast zones Monday
night. Less chances for rain are forecast for Tuesday as forcing
will be fairly weak. After lows in the 30s, highs will warm into the
40s.
For Tuesday night into Wednesday, Christmas Day, another mid level
short wave will move east into the Ohio Valley region, likely
weakening as it does. It will bring a chance of rain, with highest
chances for our western zones. Otherwise, skies will be mostly
cloudy to cloudy. Lows in the 30s will give way to highs in the
40s, with perhaps a few lower 50s possible south of the Ohio River.
A lull in the precipitation threat is then expected Wednesday night
into Thursday as a weak mid level ridge moves east through the
region. This period will also mark the start of a warming trend.
After lows mainly in the 30s, highs will range from the upper 40s
north to the lower 50s south.
A couple of systems will affect our region Friday into the weekend,
with the stronger system coming over the weekend. This will result
in more chances of rain (higher PoPs) along with warm temperatures
for late December. Lows will warm into the 40s with highs in the mid
50s to lower 60s by Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some mid and high level clouds will be possible at times through
the TAF period as high pressure shifts off to the east.
Relatively light winds will prevail through tonight before
becoming southerly and increasing to 10 to 15 knots late Monday
morning and into the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Monday night, persisting
into Tuesday. MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Wednesday into
Thursday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 2:00 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412221900-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!