JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 8:33 PM EST
024
FXUS63 KJKL 230133
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
833 PM EST Sun Dec 22 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cold temperatures will continue through tonight, followed by a
warming trend through the rest of week.
- There will be a potential for rain at times from Monday night
through Saturday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 833 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
A quiet and seasonably cold night is ahead for eastern Kentucky.
No changes were needed up other than freshen up nighttime wording
in the text forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 557 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
Forecast remains on track. Patchy high clouds over far
southeastern Kentucky should exit in the next hour or two, leaving
clear skies in place. Still expect low temperatures ranging from
the mid 10s in northeastern hollows to the mid 20s along the
thermal belt slopes/ridges.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
There remains good agreement in the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the area of high pressure centered across the Great
Lakes this afternoon to push east toward the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast parts of the CONUS. This high pressure will still leave
the area under an ample inversion aloft tonight leading to another
cold night particularly in the valleys. The coldest valleys can
expect lows in the teens once again and especially in the areas with
north facing slopes that might still have a bit of snow left over.
High pressure will be posted up to the north and east on Monday this
will help user in southerly flow at the surface and warm air
advection will take hold. This will warm afternoon maximum
temperatures into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees, with some
valleys seeing 30 plus degree swing in temperatures in some case. We
will also see an increase in mainly high clouds ahead a weakening
cold front.
Monday night that weakening cold front pushes toward the Ohio
Valley and there is some small chances we could see some very
light rain late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Overall this
activity will mainly remain north of the Mountain Parkway and
really overall better chances north of I-64. Again this would be
quite light with most struggling to measure based on the HREF
Probs with Fleming County the only one seeing around 30 to 40
percent chance in the northern parts of the county. Otherwise,
expect increasing clouds area wide Monday night and cooler
temperatures to the south given the lesser cloud cover and still
nearby high pressure. Overall overnight lows will drop into the
low to mid 30s.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
Generally amplified, progressive flow aloft through the extended.
A series of troughs/lows will track generally west to east across
the TN/OH valleys during the period. However, overall wind fields
will be relatively weak through the extended, which speaks to the
general strengths of these systems being somewhat unimpressive.
At the surface, a weak frontal zone...at times frontal boundary
will be in the vicinity of the forecast area. The frontal zone in
combination with these weak disturbances (toughs aloft) will be
enough to kick of some isolated to scattered showers at times
through the period. However, our next best chance of significant
weather will hold off until the end of the week, or even next
weekend.
Sensible weather features a warming trend, with a small chance of
rain at times through the period. There is little if anything
with respect to hazardous weather. There is no indication of
thunder and ensemble probabilistic data does not highlight any
significant threats. Temperatures will run above normal, and daily
highs climbing to around 60, or possibly into the lower 60s by
the end of the week. Our temperatures, including overnight lows
will likely remain above freezing from Wednesday through the
remainder of the period. Total QPF through the period ranges from
around a half inch our far east to around an inch across our
western zones.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 622 PM EST SUN DEC 22 2024
High pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes is nosing into the
Ohio Valley. This will keep conditions in the VFR range for the
TAF period. Clear skies prevail tonight before high clouds creep
in from the west during the day on Monday. Winds will remain light
and variable under 5 kts tonight into Monday morning before
increasing to between 5 and 10 kts (strongest toward Central
Kentucky) from the south on Monday afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEERTSON/DJ
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 22, 8:33 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412230133-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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