PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 2:51 PM CST
340
FXUS63 KPAH 212051
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and dry weather expected through
Sunday.
- Rain chances and temperatures then start to increase for
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
- Multiple systems will bring multiple rain and possibly storm
chances to the region through the remainder of the week and
into weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
The eastern half of the CONUS remains underneath cyclonic flow
aloft with a weak upper level disturbances moving across the
Quad State. High pressure at the surface extends across the
Mississippi River Valley this afternoon with a light northerly
flow underneath mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies.
Temperatures remain cool, with readings in the upper 30's to
lower 40's. Surface ridging slides east through Sunday beneath
northwest flow aloft. Low level flow begins to shift toward the
south resulting in warming temperatures.
Next week still looks active with wave after wave impacting the
region. Forecast confidence on timing and location of
individual waves is fairly good into mid week but begins to
diverge toward late week and into the weekend. Northern stream
energy makes a dive southeast out of Canada Sunday into Monday
pushing downstream troughing east resulting in more zonal flow
across the region. This wave and associated surface low will
move into the Great Lakes with a trailing front extending into
the Ohio Valley. This front will act as a focus for rain
showers Monday night into Tuesday.
Behind this, another upper disturbance is advertised to move
off the Rockies around midweek with a resulting surface low
moving out of the plains. Eventually this wave and low makes its
way across the area, although there is some questions on
timing. Generally expecting Christmas Eve and Christmas Day to
be unsettled with scattered rain and overcast skies. Rainfall
amounts should be light.
Even more waves will be expected to bring additional chances of
showers and maybe storms late in the week into the weekend.
There is still healthy spread in timing of individual waves and
even location. As the previous discussion mentioned, while there
isn't a clear consensus on if and which wave may bring strong
to severe storms to the area, the synoptic pattern could result
in convection with increasing kinematics and moisture
overspreading the area. Some of the ensemble members are showing
some instability as well so this will be something to keep an
eye on. Temperatures will be increasing this week with highs in
the 50's expected on Christmas Day, and highs in the upper 50's
to lower 60's Friday into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024
VFR forecast next 24 hours. With the region under the influence
of high pressure, light winds and mostly clear skies will
result. Northerly winds between 4-7 kts will become light and
variable overnight. Winds should shift toward the south and east
during the day Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 2:51 PM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412212051-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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