JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 2:06 AM EST
044
FXUS63 KJKL 210706 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
206 AM EST Sat Dec 21 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow showers are expected to bring light accumulations to some
locations into this morning, with the greatest accumulations at
higher elevations nearer to the VA border.
- Temperatures will warm early next week, with a possibility of
rain from Monday night through Thursday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
High resolution models are handling the ongoing precipitation
poorly. Drizzle is transitioning over to snow showers and
flurries across the area late this evening. Upstream snow shower
activity over Southern Ohio, associated with more substantial
925/850 mb cold air advection is poorly or not resolved at all in
the recent CAMs. In general, still anticipate an uptick in snow
showers as this cold air advection spreads across eastern Kentucky
after midnight and begins squeezing out the low-level moisture.
Will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for the southeastern
high terrain; any notable impacts will likely be closer to 2,000
feet elevation and above.
UPDATE Issued at 746 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
Cloud layer appears to have lost ice crystals this evening as weak
warm air advection has caused light precipitation in the form of
drizzle (and freezing drizzle at higher elevations) to redevelop
ahead of a weak surface trough. Still anticipate that
precipitation will transition back over to all snow showers once
the trough passes and low-level cold air advection resumes late
this evening and overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 528 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
A shortwave trough and associated surface low traveling east
southeast passed by just to our northeast this afternoon, bringing
rain and snow to most of the region. The last of the initial round
of significant precipitation with the system has departed, with
only some very light precip still lingering. Redevelopment of
snow showers is expected during the night as cold air advection
again strengthens. However, moisture will be relatively shallow
below the post cold frontal inversion. This will limit the amount
of moisture extending into the dendritic growth zone, which will
limit the snow. The best shot at meaningful accumulations will be
in southeast KY where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.
Any remaining flurries or isolated snow showers will taper off on
Saturday as low level moisture abates due to mixing and dry
advection. Surface ridging should be building in by Saturday night
as high pressure passes to our north. Under mostly clear skies,
winds are expected to die down enough to allow for a much colder
night, with valleys forecast to settle into the teens, and
readings around 20 elsewhere.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 335 PM EST FRI DEC 20 2024
The upper level flow pattern to begin the extended will feature a
strong trough exiting New England and much of the eastern seaboard
on Sunday. Meanwhile, large ridge of Canadian high pressure will be
spreading over the region behind the departing trough. This ridge
will keep cold temperatures in place across the eastern CONUS to
finish out the weekend. Broad ridging aloft will extend across the
western Great Lakes, northern and central Plains, and the southern
branch of the Rocky Mountains on the eastern side. Another trough
will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and north central west
coast to begin the period as well. High pressure will keep the
weather dry across eastern Kentucky Sunday through Monday. As the
ridge continues to push southeastward through the Great Lakes and
into the Ohio Valley, we will see temperatures temperatures steadily
increase across the area, especially as winds shift around to the
south. After seeing highs in the upper 40s for most locations no
Monday and Tuesday, we will see a steady warm up through out the
rest of the week. In fact, highs should max out in the mid and upper
50s Wednesday through Friday.
The dry weather will come to an end Monday night, as a series of
weather systems move through the region. The first system will move
through from the northwest Monday night through Wednesday. Based on
the latest model data, it appears that a frontal boundary may stall
out over the region on Wednesday. An area of low pressure is
forecast to form along the west end of the front, and would move
through our area Wednesday night through Friday, bringing more
rounds of rain to eastern Kentucky. No weather hazards are expected
in the extended at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
Conditions at issuance time were generally a combination of low
end MVFR to LIFR at the beginning of the TAF period, with some
drizzle or freezing drizzle although radar is suggesting a
transition to more in the way of snow. Any remaining drizzle will
transition back over to snow showers within the first hour or so
of the period. As the first 6 hours progress, the heavier and
steadier snow showers should become mostly confined to the higher
terrain near the Virginia/Kentucky border. However, given upstream
radar trends of snow showers in OH, we cannot rule out a few snow
showers affecting KJKL and KSJS after 12Z, but confidence and
coverage were too low to mention at this time. Gradual improvement
in the ceilings back to MVFR should occur around or just after
12Z, with MVFR spreading southeast across the area from about 18Z
on as high pressure builds in.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
KYZ087-088-113-115-117-118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 21, 2:06 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412210706-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL-AAC)
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