LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 11:15 AM CST ...New AVIATION...
780
FXUS64 KLIX 101715
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1115 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
The next line of sh/ts is developing to our west and will eventually
move into our area slowly this morning. The environment over the
gulf south is primed for advective fog and there is some around. The
problem is cooling it to maximize the amount of droplets. There is
also some ripples of omega(lift) moving through the boundary layer,
so that doesn't help in production either. But there will be some
patchy fog and it could be dense in isolated locations but not for
long periods. The cold front can be seen very well from near SHV to
just west of Victoria TX at 230a. This front will work its way into
our area starting around noon today and should be out of the land
zones by midnight tonight. The line of sh/ts is well ahead of the
front, but the front will catch up with it. There has been no issues
with any of the storms associated with this scenario so far, but as
the front catches up, it will provide conditions promoting sfc based
storms. This means all issues will be on the table such as severe
and heavy rainfall. This line of storms will become more
progressive, but since this will be high rainfall rates falling over
already saturated ground, it could cause flooding issues again
today. We will leave the flood watch as is in areal extent but will
extend the time to 6pm since the front will be an important
factor with this scenario. As far as the severe wx that could be
produced, numbers are not impressive such as CAPE(max800) and
SRH(max220) but they are enough. But the only place these numbers
are found along with being sfc based is right along the line of
sh/ts. Anything out ahead of this line will be elevated. Once the
front moves through, we will stay cloudy a bit longer but should
begin to clear overnight tonight with strong CAA and DAA being
pumped into the area on strong NW winds for Wed.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
Temps will fall back into the 50s for highs Wed and Thu and struggle
to get into the 60s Friday. Some light freezing conditions for
the northern portion of the area Wed night otherwise just cold
with a slow warming trend by the end of the week as winds shift
from northerly to easterly then southerly as the sfc high moves in
Thu and exits east Fri. The next front looks to approach by the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
A line of mostly showers ahead of an approaching cold front is
slowly moving south and east. As this line passes over terminals,
expect visibilities and ceilings to drop into IFR or LIFR
categories. Once the line moves out, visibilities will improve
and ceilings to some degree. It'll just take more time for higher
cloud decks to rise. VFR conditions will take over later this
afternoon and evening as the actual cold front moves through. It's
then that winds shift to the northwest and can expect to see
gusts around 20 knots, even in the overnight period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Dec 10 2024
We will be changing the SCA to Gale warnings for most open gulf
waters from midnight to noon Wed. Winds should be sustained around
30kt with frequent gusts well above gale force. Even the nearshore
zones will be included but should see these winds toward the out
limits of those zones. Winds will ease through the day Wed and
should be low enough Thu morning to drop all headlines. Winds will
shift to easterly by the end of the week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 73 38 55 31 / 70 10 0 0
BTR 77 43 59 36 / 60 10 0 0
ASD 74 43 58 34 / 80 60 0 0
MSY 74 46 57 41 / 80 60 0 0
GPT 71 43 56 36 / 80 90 10 0
PQL 76 44 60 33 / 90 90 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ039-056>060-
064>071-076>090.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
for GMZ530-532-534-536-538.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
GMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ550-
552-555-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Wednesday
for GMZ557.
MS...Flood Watch until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ077-083>088.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday
for GMZ532-534-536-538.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for
GMZ552-555-570-572-575-577.
Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ552-
555-570-572-575-577.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 11:15 AM CST ...New AVIATION... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412101715-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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