MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 3:52 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
917
FXUS64 KMOB 120952
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
352 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday night)
Issued at 352 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
A rather cold start to the day in the wake of the cold front
leading to widespread frost across the area. Zonal flow will
quickly develop across the area as upper troughing digs into the
western US. Shortwave ridging will build over the southeast
through Friday night leading to dry conditions across the area.
Forecast will mainly be a temperature forecast with slowly
moderating temperatures through Friday. Today will remain cool
after a cold start with highs only climbing into the 50s. The
warmup will be noticeable on Friday as the surface high moves
east and a more easterly surface flow sets up. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 50s to low 60s on friday. BB/03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 352 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
An upper trof over the central/southern Plains lifts into the
interior eastern states through Sunday, and an associated surface
low over Kansas is anticipated to weaken and later dissipate while
progressing towards the Great Lakes. A strong surface ridge
meanwhile remains in place over the southeastern states and will
promote an easterly to southeasterly surface flow over the forecast
area. Saturday will be mostly dry except for small pops mostly near
the Alabama coast, then chance to likely pops follow for Saturday
night along and west of I-65 due to improving deep layer moisture
and isentropic lift seen in the 290-305K layer. Slight chance to
chance pops are expected east of I-65. Isentropic lift weakens by
Sunday though looks sufficient to support mainly slight chance pops
generally along and west of I-65. A larger upper trof advances into
the central states Sunday night then progresses into the interior
eastern states on Tuesday. An associated surface low looks to pass
well north of the region and brings a weak trailing cold front
through the forecast area Tuesday morning. Dry conditions prevail on
Monday, then have gone with slight chance to chance pops for Monday
night with chance pops for Tuesday as the front moves through. The
upper trof over the interior eastern states moves off into the
western Atlantic Tuesday night, then another large upper trof looks
to evolve over the central CONUS on Wednesday. A return flow sets up
over the forecast area on Wednesday and have opted to keep in slight
chance pops for Wednesday afternoon. Instability looks rather
limited through the entire period, so continue to not anticipate any
severe weather. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 352 AM CST Thu Dec 12 2024
Offshore winds will continue to slowly subside before turning
easterly on Friday. Winds will once again increase this weekend
and advisory headlines are possible by late Friday night into
early Saturday for the Gulf waters. Easterly flow will prevail
through most of the forecast. BB/03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 56 37 61 47 67 54 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 20 30 20 10
Pensacola 57 41 61 51 67 57 70 56 / 0 0 0 10 10 30 10 10
Destin 58 44 65 53 71 59 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 10 10
Evergreen 56 33 61 42 67 52 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 10
Waynesboro 55 33 59 42 66 51 69 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 20 10
Camden 54 33 57 42 64 50 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 50 20 10
Crestview 57 32 64 45 70 52 74 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 10 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 3:52 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412120952-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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