ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 16, 6:15 AM EST
659
FXUS61 KILN 161115
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
615 AM EST Mon Dec 16 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A mild and wet weather pattern will prevail through mid week,
with seasonably cold conditions expected to return at the end of
the week into the upcoming weekend. Following a chance for some
rain and snow Friday, drier conditions are expected this
weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
There is quite a bit of LL moisture lingering about the region
this morning, although fcst soundings would suggest it to be
rather shallow in nature -- perhaps only about 1km deep. This
has resulted in some low clouds and patchy fog, particularly
near/N of I-70, with persist at times through daybreak. The
patchy fog has shown /some/ signs of clearing a bit, owing to a
subtly-increasing pressure gradient and slightly steadier LL
flow. However, patchy to areas of fog will continue at times
through sunrise, particularly across parts of central OH from
Union Co to Licking Co OH and points to the N where the LL flow
will remain the weakest.
While some patchy DZ cannot be ruled out through 12z, most
locales will remain "dry." Clouds and southerly flow will keep
temps steady and mild overnight, with lows ranging from the
lower 40s north to around 50 far south.
Around sunrise, attention will turn to a quickly-approaching
shield of SHRA coming in from the SW. Following the departure of
the weakening closed low to the E, a deepening/digging trof in
the upper midwest will put the OH Vly in a favorable location
for increasing large-scale ascent/forcing with robust
moisture/mass transport NE into the region this morning into
this afternoon. Although this round of rain will be fairly
progressive, some brief moderate to locally heavy rain rates
will be possible, particularly near/S of the I-71 corridor. The
activity will be more showery in nature, with perhaps a rumble
of thunder or two in/near the Tri-State this morning. There
will be an initial surge of widespread showers into mid
afternoon, with additional SCT activity focusing along the
eastward- advancing front by this evening. Latest guidance,
including ensemble datasets, suggest only marginal potential for
near/greater than 1" of rain through the day, with greatest
probs (still generally <20%) near the Tri- State, particularly
within a corridor near Ripley/Switzerland Cos IN to
Hamilton/Clermont Cos OH and point further SW. Of course, the
prospect of an inch of rain typically wouldn't raise any
eyebrows, but it will be coming immediately on the heels of the
widespread 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch from Sunday, so soils are
expected to become increasingly soggy/saturated and less
receptive to absorption should an additional inch of rain fall
today. This could lead to some very isolated runoff issues
in/near the Tri-State and, at the very least, should cause some
rises on area waterways. But at this juncture, given the meager
signal for a heavier (>= 1") swath of rain, even across the SW
third of the ILN FA, there is just not enough of a signal to
warrant a bigger concern for larger- scale/widespread flooding
concerns.
The only other item of interest for the near-term period is
going to be the gusty winds that develop mid afternoon through
early evening. SW winds could gust to 25-30kts at times before
subsiding late this evening following the FROPA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Quieter conditions return to the region for the short term
period, although this respite will again be somewhat brief as
another system is expected to impact the OH Vly by Wednesday.
Regardless, dry conditions will evolve tonight through Tuesday
as weak sfc high pressure briefly builds into the TN Vly.
Temps tonight bottom out in the lower 30s (EC IN and WC OH) to
the lower 40s in the lower Scioto Valley into NE KY before
rebounding into the mid 40s to mid 50s, respectively, on
Tuesday afternoon. Latest guidance suggests we may even see the
sun once again for Tuesday, particularly S of the I-70 corridor.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The next wave in an ongoing wave train arrives to the Ohio Valley on
Wednesday, though there is lower than normal confidence with this
system. The ECMWF ensemble continues to push the highest QPF
footprint to our south, along the KY/TN border while the GFS
continues to hang onto it's more northerly solution. This is
somewhat unusual, given that we're now only ~40 hours out. Should
the GFS solution end up dominating, we may end up with some
additional hydro concerns. However, due to uncertainty at this
moment, will continue to stick with more of a blend and hold off
mention in the HWO for now.
Sensibly speaking, rainfall arrives as we head into Wednesday
morning and continues through the day on Wednesday (temps in the 40s-
50s), but highest confidence will be for areas along the Ohio River.
PoPs decrease Wednesday evening behind a much stronger cold front
and we may even see some wintry mix as things wind down. Along this
line of thought, this system carries cold air much farther south,
and our 850mb temps might end up around -10 to -12 range with
Wednesday night surface temps dropping to the 20s.
Thursday arrives much cooler, with highs only reaching the low to
mid 30s with perhaps some lingering flurries in the residual
cyclonic flow. Yet another wave moves through the northerly flow as
a clipper-type system looks to move into the region near the end of
the work week. This system will act to reinforce the cold air
advection already in place and possibly bring some snow showers to
the area, though moisture looks meager.
The coming weekend will remain cold, with highs in the 30s and
overnight lows dropping to the teens, though we should remain mostly
dry, with no strong signals for precipitation outside of the odd
flurry.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of IFR/LIFR CIGs will settle into the region through the
daytime, with some MVFR/IFR VSBYs (due to DZ/BR) to go along
with it through the 2-3 hours of the TAF period. There may be
fluctuations from time to time in the VSBYs, but prevailing MVFR
VSBYs should persist, continuing even once the solid shield of
SHRA arrives. This widespread SHRA will overspread from SW to NE
through 15z, with the steadiest/heaviest between 16z-20z,
before becoming more ISO/SCT in nature by 21z once again. There
is the expectation for additional SCT SHRA to develop along the
eastward-advancing front itself in the several hour period
around 00z, so conditions may not trend completely dry until
after 03z or so. With the SHRA, MVFR/IFR VSBYs should prevail
area-wide.
By mid/late afternoon, some SW LLWS on the order of 40-45kts
will evolve locally, complemented by a strengthening of sfc
winds as well. At the sfc, SW winds of 15-18 kts, with gusts to
around 25kts, are expected between 18z-02z before becoming more
westerly and tapering off past 06z to around 10-12kts.
VSBYs will return to VFR after the FROPA, with CIGs trending
back to MVFR before scattering out toward 06z Tuesday and
beyond.
OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions are likely Wednesday. Some
MVFR ceilings may linger into Wednesday night. MVFR and IFR
conditions possible Friday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KC
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 16, 6:15 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412161115-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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