BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 2:49 PM EST
676
FXUS61 KBOX 121949
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
249 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry, blustery and seasonably chilly temperatures are on
tap for the rest of today. Cold/Below normal temperatures with
dry weather will be in place for Friday and Saturday. Pattern
trends more unsettled later Sunday through next week with
periods of precipitation possible. Temperatures moderate to
above normal levels for the early part of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* Breezy and much colder this afternoon and overnight.
* Rouge flurries, mainly across northern MA are possible due to
ongoing lake effect snow.
Cold and quiet conditions this afternoon across the northeast with
an occasional light snow shower as the region is under cyclonic flow
due to the mid-level low pressure system and deepening 976mb low in
northeastern Canada. As mentioned, a few flurries are possible
through the afternoon and evening due to the metaphoric "snow guns"
blasting snow eastward off of Lake Ontario and Lake Eire. With steep
low-level lapse rates, gusts between 20-30 mph continue this
afternoon. When you combine the wind and the seasonably cooler
temperatures which are in the 30s and low-40s, have apparent
temperatures in the 20s and low-30s.
Heading into the overnight hours the gusts diminish, but will remain
elevated with occasional gusts 15 to 20 mph. While sky cover is
trending more clear, the elevated wind gusts should preclude true
radiational cooling - that said, overnight temperatures dip into the
teens to low-20s. Slightly warmer for the immediate coast and urban
centers like Boston are in the middle 20s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
* Robust surface high pressure system brings clear skies and below
normal temperatures Friday into Friday night.
Lots of sunshine expected for Friday and clear skies on Friday night
due to a robust high pressure system. Model guidance suggest 1040mb
centered across the eastern Great Lakes by early afternoon. Any wind
from the morning hours diminish in the afternoon and winds become
light from the west/northwest. With below normal 850mb temperatures
will have below surface temperatures from the upper 20s in the high
elevations to the low and middle 30s for the coastal plain.
Clear skies Friday night with light northwest wind should promote
radiational cooling, did blend in colder CONSMOS guidance, which
has lows in the teen, while urban centers like Boston remain in the
lower 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages
* Quiet weekend with dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures
* Milder temperatures next week with a few rounds of unsettled weather
Saturday and Sunday
Large area of surface high pressure builds over The Northeast this
weekend. This will support dry/quiet weather with plenty of sunshine
on both days. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be below
normal for mid-December as continental polar air mass characterized
by 925 hPa temps between -5 and -10 Celsius will remain over the
region through Sunday evening. Expect chilly starts to both Saturday
and Sunday with low temps between 10 and 20 degrees F across
interior southern New England. Coolest temperatures below 15 degrees
will be focused across northwestern MA/western CT, while the coastal
plain will be milder in the 15 to 20 degree range. Areas along the
immediate coast will be kept warmer by the proximity to the ocean
with lows in the low 20s. The Cape and Islands will be substantially
milder with lows in the mid to upper 20s. High temps in the
afternoon peak in the low to mid 30s on Saturday and mid 30s to low
40s on Sunday.
Sunday night and Monday
High pressure should begin to shift east of the region by Sunday
night. This will allow return flow from the south to advect milder
air over New England. As southerly flow overruns the cool air mass
in place, we would expect increasing cloudiness Sunday night into
Monday morning. This will be accompanied by increasing moisture as
well. As warm advection ensues, a 500 hPa short-wave trough will
traversing across New York/PA and will provide forcing for a modest
precipitation event that will result in a wet/unsettled day on
Monday. If this system arrives during the pre-dawn hours, some
snow/wintry mix precipitation will be a possibility at the onset.
However, as southwest flow advects warmer air into the region on
Monday, we should see any frozen precipitation change over to rain
by Monday afternoon as temperatures climb into the 40s.
Tuesday through Thursday
West/southwest flow looks to prevail next week which should keep
temperatures in the above normal range (lows in the 30s, highs in
the 40s/50s) for most of next week. Global models and ensembles are
hinting at a relatively active week with ongoing WAA driven
precipitation on Tuesday, followed by a cold frontal rain event
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This may be followed by yet
another low-pressure system that could produce significant
precipitation late next week. Details are vague at this time range,
so stay tuned for further details.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 00z...High confidence.
VFR, despite SCT to BKN deck of stratocumulus clouds between 4,000
and 5,000 feet. Gusty west to west/northwest 25-30 knots. A low
chance for a snow flurry or light snow shower for the terminals in
northern and northwestern Massachusetts.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. West to west/northwest gusts 15 to 20 knots for the first half
of the night with a lull in gusts after 08z to 10z. Sustained winds
are 8 to 12 knots overnight.
Friday and Friday Night...High confidence.
VFR. West/northwest wind 8 to 12 knots, after 15z gusts to 20 knots
for most terminals. Easing winds developing 21z to 00z with wind
becoming less than 5 knots from the west/northwest Friday night.
KBOS TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Sunday: VFR.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. RA
likely.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Friday Night...High confidence.
* Gusts continue to ease, allowing for remaining Gale Warnings to be
converted to Small Craft Advisories.
* Small Craft Advisories for all waters through this evening with
improving conditions Friday.
Through Tonight: Dry conditions. West to west/southwest gust through
the rest of today are near 30 knots, although, an isolated gust to
Gale Force does remain possible through late this afternoon. Near
shore seas are 4-7 ft, while the outer water seas are 8-12 ft.
Overnight, gusts ease and fall below advisory criteria for all
waters, but seas remain elevated and allow for the advisory to
continue.
Friday: Dry weather continues, northwest winds 15 to 20 knots and
gusts to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisory continues for the off
shore waters due to marginal seas of 4-6 ft.
Friday Night: Dry, northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, seas settling
between 2-4 ft.
Outlook /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday through Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain.
Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain
likely.
Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain likely.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ230-
236.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ231>234-251.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ250-254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/RM
NEAR TERM...Dooley
SHORT TERM...Dooley
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...Dooley/RM
MARINE...Dooley/RM
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 12, 2:49 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412121949-KBOX-FXUS61-AFDBOX)
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