JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 6:55 AM EST
475
FXUS63 KJKL 151155
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
655 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures persist through Wednesday.
- Periods of rain are forecast to impact the area at times tonight through
Wednesday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
An early morning update is out, primarily to remove pre-first
period wording from the text forecasts. Other changes were minor.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 251 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
The upper low/trough responsible for the current round of rain will
lift out to the northeast today, with transient upper-level
ridging moving overhead tonight. The next system in the pipeline
of active weather then moves into the area Monday bringing another
round of widespread rain/shower activity. The period ends early
Monday evening with a cold front approaching from the west moving
east across the Ohio Valley and across eastern Kentucky Monday
night.
The current round of rain will taper off to isolated to scattered
showers by late morning or early this afternoon, with soundings
suggesting a prolonged period of low clouds and drizzle/mist along
with the occasional shower Sunday afternoon through much of
Sunday night, before the next round of rain arrives by Monday
morning in the far northern and western parts of the forecast
area, particularly the Bluegrass region, with a passing warm
front. An initial round of rain with the warm frontal passage will
give way to increasingly showery activity toward evening as
marginal instability moves toward the area from the southwest
ahead of the cold front.
Temperatures will continue an overall upward trend, with lower to
mid 50s for highs today and mid to upper 40s tonight. With
stronger warm advection Monday owing in part to increased south-
southwesterly winds reaching as high as 10 to 15 mph sustained
with gusts 20 to 25 mph, highs will jump into the upper 50s to
lower 60s, warmest where more widespread rain or shower activity
holds off until late afternoon or early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
The forecast period begins with the area in the midst of cold FROPA.
An occluded surface low tracking across southern Canada will drag a
surface cold front through the Commonwealth. This is the front
that'll be crossing through the CWA at the start of the period. The
front should be through the CWA by early Tuesday afternoon before
surface high pressure begins to nudge in from the west. The
aforementioned cold front will be abandoned by upper-level forcing
to the south of the area but as another system develops in the Ark-
La-Tex region, the front will lift back into the region as a warm
front Wednesday morning and bring another round of showers with
isolated thunderstorms through the day Wednesday. Before frontal
passage occurs late Wednesday night, total QPF for the event will
range from 0.50" across the Bluegrass to around 1.25" for areas
south of the I-64 corridor. As the system ejects off to the east,
colder air will filter into the region and lingering precipitation
will be in the form of rain-snow mix before coming to an end by late
Thursday morning.
Surface high pressure will build back into the region for Thursday
and persist through the day but to the northwest, an upper-level
trough will bring a Clipper system into the Great Lakes for Friday.
While the bulk of the impacts with this Clipper will remain mostly
in the Ohio Valley, the associated cold front will bring increased
chances of snow showers early Friday morning before warming causes
snow to transition to rain for Friday afternoon. Colder air will
filter back into the region for Friday night and those rain showers
will transition back to all snow for Friday night into Saturday
morning. The system will quickly eject out of the area by Saturday
afternoon but some lingering upslope snow showers will be possible
Saturday afternoon before high pressure reestablishes itself for the
end of the weekend.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlight by multiple
disturbances moving across the CONUS bringing rounds of rain and
snow showers by the end of the period. High temperatures for the
period will be above average for the start of the period but as the
cold front passes on Wednesday, highs will return to more seasonal
levels. The clipper will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air for
the weekend. Overnight lows will follow this pattern with lows
bottoming out in the teens by Sunday morning.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EST SUN DEC 15 2024
VFR conditions prevailed at KLOZ, KJKL, and KSJS to start the
period, with MVFR conditions at KSME and KSYM. There is not much
change from the previous discussion, as eventually the lower
levels are still expected to saturate enough for MVFR ceilings to
spread east through 18Z to include all the TAF sites. During that
time, some more western and northwestern areas should also
experience a period of IFR after 14Z, with a few hours of IFR
possible especially for KSME, KLOZ, and KSYM. From 18Z on, a
mixture of mainly MVFR and IFR should then prevail even though
showers should become more scattered from west to east between 16Z
and 22Z. Within the steadier and heavier showers between 12z and
18z, visibility will be reduced to MVFR levels with times of IFR
in some cases. Winds will average southeast to south at generally
less than 10KT through 18Z, before becoming south at 10KT or less
to end the period. Though lower confidence, there remains a threat
of LLWS through 18Z for portions of the region.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...CMC
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 15, 6:55 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412151155-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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