CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 6:43 AM EST
140
FXUS61 KCLE 141143
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 AM EST Sat Dec 14 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle to the east of the area as weakening
low pressure lifts across the Middle Mississippi Valley tonight
into early Sunday before tracking across the Great Lakes during
the day Sunday. A warm front will lift north across the area
Monday which will be followed by a series of cold fronts that
will cross the region through mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level ridge axis will shift over the region today as surface
high pressure settles east of the local area. Expect dry weather
with some high clouds during the day today before a vertically
stacked low lifts northeast out of the mid-Mississippi Valley
tonight. Isentropic lift ahead of this low will result in increasing
clouds from the west late this afternoon and increasing
precipitation chances from the southwest late tonight with rain
chances spreading eastward across the CWA Sunday as the surface low
weakens and the upper low tracks over the CWA. Precipitation may
become a bit more scattered in western zones by Sunday afternoon,
but it will still be quite a damp and dreary end to the weekend for
the majority of the local area.
There are still a number of challenges with the precipitation type
forecast, particularly at the onset of precipitation. Forecast
soundings indicate warm air above the surface with a relatively low
inversion so cold rain is the favored precipitation type for
most of the CWA. Surface temperatures across portions of the
area (primarily in the Toledo area and east of the I-71
corridor) will be near or just below freezing as the
precipitation shield moves into the area which could result in a
brief period of freezing rain before dew points and surface
temps rise above freezing. If this occurs, a trace to a few
hundredths of an inch of ice could accumulate in the area of
concern. However, it's possible that precipitation starts off as
virga since dew points will be in the 20s and there's a chance
that surface temps rise above freezing before any precipitation
manages to reach the surface. On the other hand, cooler air may
become trapped under the inversion and temperatures could be
slow to rise especially if evaporative cooling occurs as the
column saturates, which could result in more freezing rain than
currently anticipated. Can't rule out a Winter Weather Advisory
for eastern locations late tonight and Sunday morning, but as of
now confidence in the timing of precipitation onset and surface
temperatures/dew points is too low to justify any headlines.
Any freezing rain should only last 1-3 hours before
transitioning to rain.
A warming trend will unfold starting today with highs climbing into
the mid 30s to possible around 40 degrees in southern communities.
Expect overnight lows in the 20s in eastern zones and lower 30s in
the west tonight. Sunday's highs will reach the upper 30s to lower
40s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered rain showers are expected Sunday evening, courtesy of
moist isentropic ascent ahead of a shortwave trough axis poised to
sweep E'ward across the eastern Great Lakes and Upper OH Valley. Wet
snow may mix with rain in interior NW PA, but any snow accumulation
should be no more than a trace. Primarily fair weather is expected
after midnight Sunday night as a subtle shortwave ridge builds from
the western Great Lakes. At the surface, a ridge will continue to
exit slowly and generally E'ward as a warm front approaches from the
Lower and Mid OH Valley. A few additional rain showers may occur,
especially toward daybreak, courtesy of moistening isentropic ascent
along the upper-reaches of the warm front. Lows are expected to
reach the 30's in NW PA and mainly the mid 30's to lower 40's in
northern OH late Sunday evening. Temperatures are forecast to
moderate slightly by daybreak Monday as low-level WAA strengthens
ahead of the surface warm front.
Cyclonic SW'erly to W'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances are expected to impact our region on Monday through
Monday night. At the surface, net troughing is expected. The warm
front will sweep N'ward through our CWA on Monday and be followed by
a cold front set to sweep E'ward trough our region Monday night.
Low-level WAA will contribute to highs reaching the upper 40's to
mid 50's Monday afternoon, ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows
are forecast to reach the roughly 35F to 40F range around daybreak
Tuesday as net low-level CAA follows the front. Periods of rain are
expected courtesy of isentropic ascent preceding the shortwave
trough axes and along the upper-reaches of the warm front, and low-
level convergence/ascent along the cold front. All of the
aforementioned forcing for ascent will coincide with abundant low-
level moisture originating over the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, rain will
be steady to heavy at times. Rain is expected to end quickly
following the surface cold front passage as stabilizing subsidence
accompanies a surface ridge expected to build from the north-central
United States and Mid MS Valley. Widespread rainfall totals of 0.75"
to 1.25" are forecast Sunday night through Monday night.
Current odds favor fair weather Tuesday through Tuesday night as a
narrow ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the north-central
United States and Mid MS Valley, and eventually crests E'ward over
our region. Highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 40's
Tuesday afternoon. Overnight lows are forecast to reach the upper
20's to mid 30's around daybreak Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A potent shortwave trough and attendant surface cold front are
expected to sweep E'ward across our region on Wednesday and generate
widespread rain. Daytime highs should reach the upper 30's to lower
40's ahead of the cold front. Low-level CAA behind the front and
nocturnal cooling should allow the rain to mix with or change to
snow during the evening before widespread precip ends. Overnight
Wednesday night, lake-effect precip, mainly in the form of snow,
should occur over and downwind of Lake Erie courtesy of NW'erly mean
low-level flow of sufficiently-cold/moist air over/downwind of the
~4C lake. Overnight lows should reach the mid 20's to lower 30's
around daybreak Thursday.
Forecast confidence remains low this Thursday through Friday due to
continued large variability in forecast model guidance. In general,
cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave
disturbances should allow net surface troughing and slightly below-
normal temperatures to impact our region. Sufficiently-cold/moist
mean low-level flow, varying between NW'erly and W'erly, should
allow lake-effect snow to persist over/downwind of Lake Erie,
in/near the snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA. Elsewhere, periodic snow
showers may accompany the aforementioned shortwave disturbances.
Given reduced forecast confidence, it is too soon to mention
potential snow accumulation values during the long-term period.
Daytime highs should reach the lower to mid 30's on Thursday and
Friday, respectively. Overnight lows should reach the 20's around
daybreak Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR is anticipated east of a line from roughly KCLE to KMFD
through 12Z. VFR will persist at western terminals through this
evening before conditions begin to deteriorate as rain moves in
from the southwest overnight. Precipitation will likely begin
at KTOL/KFDY at around 06Z before reaching KMFD/KCLE by 12Z
Sunday. Surface temperatures may be cool enough for a brief
period of freezing rain at KTOL and KCLE (and possibly KCAK if
precip manages to arrive by 12Z), but confidence in the freezing
rain potential remains low so opted for PROB30 for -FZRA for the
time being. The rain will be combating quite a bit of low level
dry air so expect flight conditions to start off as VFR before
ceilings/visibility gradually decline to MVFR as the column
saturates. Heavier rainfall rates will likely produce IFR
visibilities late in the period.
Winds will be out of the east/southeast to 6 to 12 knots before
increasing to 10 to 15 knots at KERI after about 03Z and
elsewhere towards the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to
about 20 knots cannot be ruled out early Sunday morning.
Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are possible through Monday with
rain showers moving into the region. There is a low probability
of light icing at CAK/YNG as rain continues to spread east
Sunday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Primarily E'erly to SE'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots are expected
over Lake Erie through Sunday night as a ridge exits slowly E'ward.
Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 to 5
footers will occur in open U.S. waters. A warm front will sweep
N'ward across Lake Erie on Monday, allowing SE'erly winds around 10
to 20 knots to veer to S'erly and freshen to about 15 to 25 knots.
The current forecast has the strongest winds over open U.S. waters.
Waves are expected to remain 3 feet or less in nearshore U.S. waters
and be as large as 3 to 5 feet in open U.S. waters. Given the
aforementioned expected conditions, do not anticipate the need for a
Small Craft Advisory, but will continue to monitor forecast trends.
S'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots veer to WSW'erly Monday night as
a cold front sweeps E'ward across Lake Erie. Given the expected
evolution of fetch, waves are expected to build to as large as 4
feet in the western basin and as large as 5 to 9 feet farther east.
A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. On Tuesday, WSW'erly
to W'erly winds ease gradually to about 10 to 20 knots by sunset as
a ridge builds from the Middle MS Valley. Waves subside gradually to
3 feet or less in the western basin and 6 feet or less farther east.
SW'erly to WSW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected Tuesday
night as the ridge begins to exit toward the Mid-Atlantic States.
Waves are forecast to subside to 3 feet or less basin-wide by
daybreak Wednesday. On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to sweep
E'ward across Lake Erie and cause SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots
to veer to W'erly or NW'erly. Waves are expected to remain 3 feet or
less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Maines
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Jaszka
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 14, 6:43 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412141143-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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