ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 9:19 PM EST
472
FXUS61 KILN 120219
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
919 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves into the area this afternoon and evening,
snow showers are expected, along with much cooler temperatures.
A warming trend is expected going into the weekend, as an area
of low pressure brings the next chance of rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A cold front will continue progressing through the area this
evening. Snow showers are being observed just head of the front with
brief, local visibility reductions to a half mile or so in the
heaviest showers. Dropping temperatures combined with the intense
nature of the showers is resulting in quick accumulations on roads,
including interstates, where snow rates are heaviest. If out
traveling tonight, please be prepared for rapidly changing
conditions and slick spots.
Temperatures continue to drop tonight behind the front and winds
pick up out of the west. Dropping temperates aid in the development
of slick spots where moisture from this evenings snow showers
refreezes. Breezy conditions combined with temperatures falling into
the middle teens north of I-70 result in wind chills near 0 by the
morning across the north. Warmer temperatures and more moderate wind
chills are forecast south of I-70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure builds southeastward into the Ohio Valley
Thursday, allowing for winds to gradually decrease into the
evening hours. Temperatures are below normal for afternoon
highs despite the mostly sunny conditions.
While high pressure would typically bring quiet conditions,
increasing clouds will be noticeable Thursday afternoon and
early evening. A weak shortwave pivoting through the base of the
mid-level trough provides enough lift within the cool conditions
supporting the potential for a band of snow. Initially, dry air
would limit snow accumulations, but the residence time of the
lift supports light accumulations wherever the band becomes
established. In addition, forecast soundings are favorable with
a deep dendritic growth layer within the area of weak forcing.
Given temperatures are in the teens to lower 20s, a mention was
added in the HWO for the likelihood of slick conditions into
Friday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions will start out the long term. Models continue to
struggle with timing of the weekend system, however they have
in general slowed the onset. There will be some WAA on Friday,
however there will be a range in temperatures with highs below
freezing on Friday across the far northern portions of the
region and then in the 40s near and south of the Ohio River.
Warmer air will move in for Saturday with highs in the 40s to
around 50 degrees. Rain will start to move in late in the day on
Saturday, with more widespread rainfall Saturday night into
Sunday.
There will be a decrease in precipitation overnight Sunday
night, however this will be short lived as a strong storm system
will approach on Monday. Widespread rain and gusty winds will
move into the region Monday night. Increased wind gusts at this
time, however will have to monitor trends as some models are
indicating some stronger wind gusts. Depending on how quickly
precipitation moves out of the region, there will be the
potential for some snowfall going into Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An area of snow showers will progress through the Ohio Valley from
2300z Wednesday through 0400z Thursday. VFR conditions will likely
persist outside of snow showers. Brief MVFR or lower visibilities
are likely inside of snow showers this evening. After 0400z
Thursday, snow showers end to as a cold front pushes east signaling
a return to VFR conditions for the TAF period. There is a chance
that some snow showers or lowered ceilings briefly return along I-70
after 0000z Friday with another disturbance.
Breezy westerly winds around 20 knots with higher gusts persist
through 1200z. After 1200z, westerly winds start to subside
gradually through the rest of the TAF period.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions for DAY/CMH/LCK possible Thursday
evening due to snow. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hatzos/McGinnis
NEAR TERM...Campbell
SHORT TERM...McGinnis
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Campbell
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 11, 9:19 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412120219-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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