CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 1:06 AM EST
477
FXUS61 KCLE 100606
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
106 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure clips the area Tuesday followed by a colder blast
of air moving in Wednesday night and Thursday. Winds increase
and lake effect snow returns for some areas with more winter
like temperatures Thursday. Drying out for the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
12:30 AM Update...
The forecast continues to look less pessimistic for fog coverage
tonight. The latest Infrared satellite loops show widespread
high and mid-level clouds spreading across the region,
especially in north central and NE Ohio into NW PA, so this will
further limit radiational cooling. Just expect patchy fog near
river valleys since there is plenty of lingering low-level
moisture despite the greater cloud cover, but most visibilities
won't get below 3 miles.
930 PM EST Update...
Guidance is backing off on fog potential tonight, most likely
due to lack of radiational cooling. Either way, there will
likely be enough moisture trapped at the surface and winds will
be light enough for a chance of patchy fog primarily in river
valleys early Tuesday morning. Made a few adjustments to the
fog forecast to make it a bit more optimistic, but otherwise no
changes needed with this update.
Previous Discussion...
Isentropic lift exiting the area and will see a brief period of
drying while another area of low pressure develops over the
lower Mississippi Valley tonight, moving quickly northeastward
Tuesday. Low level f-gen coupled with q-vector convergence aloft
brings a shield of rain on the northwest side of the surface
low as it clips the eastern portion of the CWA. The passage of
this low east of the area will begin the next round of cold air
advection into the CWA Tuesday night with temperatures falling
towards freezing, especially in the western zones. Low POPs
Tuesday night in the cold air advection, but will see rain
showers changing over to snow showers by Wednesday morning.
Little to no accumulation during this transition phase with
winds increasing out of the west during this time.
Looking back to tonight, sharp surface inversion and low
temperature/dewpoint spread with decreasing winds will allow for
patchy fog development across the CWA. Near surface forecast
soundings are not perfect for the setup, but think there should be
enough trapped near surface moisture for it to materialize at least
in places like valleys etc. Peak timing is late tonight, just before
sunrise, and still may end up needing fog products in places during
this time.
Slightly cooler tonight, and still above normal prior to the passage
of the aforementioned surface low to the east into Tuesday night
when the cold air filters in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A sharp and deep upper level will be moving through the central and
eastern CONUS on Wednesday. A developing low pressure system will
track from the Mid-Atlantic region into New England on Wednesday.
Behind this developing storm system will be a strong cold front that
will push through on Wednesday with strong cold air advection. The
high temperature on Wednesday like likely occur very early in the
morning with temperatures tumbling during the day. We may start out
with some rain over NEOH and NWPA in the morning and light snow over
NWOH on Wednesday. As colder air moves in, the rain will change to
light snow for all of northern Ohio and NWPA through the morning
hours. There may be a light dusting to half an inch of snowfall
during the day.
By late Wednesday afternoon, much colder air aloft will start
pushing in across the Great Lakes. 850 mb temperatures will drop
into the -13C to -19C with lake effect snow developing
Wednesday afternoon into the overnight. The low level wind flow
will become west- southwesterly late Wednesday afternoon and
continues through Thursday nigh. This wind flow will favor LES
for areas closer to the lakeshore of the Snowbelt region
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. Winter Storm Watches
for heavy lake effect snow has been issue for the lakeshore
zone of Ashtabula and all of our Erie County PA from 21z
Wednesday through 12z Friday. 6 to 12 inches of snowfall may be
possible in the winter storm watch area for heavy lake effect
with the heaviest amounts along and north of I-90. Area of the
snowbelt outside of the watch area may see 1 to 4 inches across
far NEOH and NWPA. Temperatures will be very cold in the teens
for overnight lows Wednesday night and Thursday night. High
temperatures on Thursday will only be in the low 20s. Gusty
winds from the west 15 to 30 mph cause wind chill values to drop
to around zero at times.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The overall mid-level flow will flatten out by Friday with a
moderation in temperatures. A southeasterly wind flow will return on
the backside of the exiting high pressure. Any lake effect snow
should have faded away by early Friday morning. Temperatures will
climb into the 30s on Friday. Another fast moving mid level trough
will track from the Midwest into the Great Lakes region on Saturday.
A low pressure system will track from the Midwest into the Great
Lakes region next weekend. Our area will be on the milder side of
this system which will bring a chance of cold rain next Saturday
through early Sunday. Temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s next
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Went slightly less pessimistic on the coverage of fog and mist
early this morning since mid and high level clouds will limit
radiation fog development. Could still see some 3 to 6 mile
visibilities at KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG this morning, but
dense fog is not expected. Otherwise, mainly VFR will prevail
until a wave of low pressure developing over the Appalachians
spreads rain into north central and NE Ohio and NW PA this
afternoon and evening. This should stay east of KTOL and KFDY,
but IFR to LIFR conditions in rain, mist, and low clouds will
affect all other terminals this afternoon and evening. The rain
will gradually end from west to east this evening and early
tonight, but mist/drizzle and IFR conditions will persist until
after the TAF period until the colder, drier air works in toward
Wednesday morning.
Light S to SW winds this morning will turn W to WNW and increase
to 5-10 knots this afternoon and evening.
Outlook...Non-VFR expected in post cold frontal snow/lake
effect snow in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania
Wednesday through Thursday and possibly into Friday. Additional
non-VFR possible in rain showers Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine conditions will start out quiet this afternoon through
Tuesday night before rough conditions return for the middle of the
week. Winds will start out from the southwesterly to westerly
between 10-15 knots gradually veering northwesterly late Tuesday. On
Wednesday, a deep upper level trough and strong cold front move
across the Great Lakes region leading to increased westerly winds 20
to 30 knots through Thursday night. There remains some potential for
gale force winds, especially behind the cold front Wednesday night
into Thursday over the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie. At a
minimum, small craft advisories will be needed Wednesday through
Thursday night. High pressure will be near by the lake on Friday
with a light southeasterly flow 5 to 15 knots.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
morning for OHZ089.
PA...Winter Storm Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Friday
morning for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Maines/26
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...Griffin
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 10, 1:06 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412100606-KCLE-FXUS61-AFDCLE)
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