IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 11:57 AM EST
326
FXUS63 KIND 071657
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1157 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warming trend continues this weekend
- Brisk conditions today and tonight with wind gusts peaking at 25-
30mph
- Rain returns late Sunday night into Monday with heaviest rain
across southern Indiana
- Additional precipitation chances through midweek, ending with a
drop in temperatures and potential transition to snow
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Satellite shows cirrus moving south into and across central Indiana
this morning, and webcams show that some of the clouds are thick.
Upped sky cover based on these trends today.
Otherwise the forecast is in good shape. Warm advection and some
sunshine will bring temperatures to near normal values. Winds will
increase some today as the pressure gradient tightens, and mixing
will bring down gusts over 20 mph.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Tranquil weather continues early this morning with the Ohio Valley
under the influence of broad high pressure over the Tennessee
Valley. Skies were clear with one exception...a small area of
stratus focused over southwest Indiana. 08Z temperatures were
predominantly in the low and mid 20s aided by southwest winds
holding largely in the 5 to 10mph range.
The surface high will sag into the southeast U S through the course
of the day as low pressure tracks across the northern Great Lakes.
This will produce a progressively tighter surface pressure gradient
which will translate to a breezy afternoon and night.
The small area of stratus in our southwest counties will move out of
the area within the next hour or two leaving skies clear over the
entire forecast area through daybreak. As mentioned above...the
tightening of the pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds
closer to 15mph with gusts peaking at near 25mph by this afternoon.
Mainly clear skies will continue throughout the day with model
soundings and RH progs both highlighting deep subsidence present
below 500mb for most of the day. May see a subtle increase in cirrus
by late day and continuing into tonight but that will be it with
respect to clouds through the short term.
A 50+kt low level jet will pivot around the base of the surface low
over the northern Great Lakes tonight and move through the region.
This in tandem with the continued sharp pressure gradient in the
near surface layer will keep gusty winds over the forecast area
throughout the night with a primary focus across the northern half
of central Indiana in closer proximity to the core of the jet. Peak
gusts will likely persist at 25mph and may even uptick to around
30mph for a few hours during the evening.
Temps...increased warm advection aided by the brisk southwest flow
will help highs boost back to normal levels in the low and mid 40s
this afternoon. Temperatures will be held up in the low to mid 30s
tonight by the stronger winds in the near surface layer.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Central Indiana will be back on the temperature roller coaster a bit
during the long term period, with early week warmth giving way to
another quick hit of cold mid week. Some moderation in temperatures
appears likely by the end of the week.
Dry and relatively warm conditions are expected Sunday, with highs
largely in the low to mid 50s across the area under ample sun. A
southern stream shortwave will move out of the Southwest and through
the Ohio Valley and mid-Appalachians Sunday night into Monday,
bringing strong chances for rainfall, particularly for Sunday night
into Monday morning. Highest amounts with this event look to be
a little over a half inch of rain in our far SE.
While model uncertainty will necessitate some lingering low rain
chances through mid-week as the northern and southern stream jets
phase and a larger scale longwave trough swings through the eastern
CONUS, forecast confidence here is somewhat low, and the highly
amplified nature of the pattern leads to significant uncertainty
with respect to the longitudinal position of any secondary low
pressure system that develops early to mid-week. Recent model runs
show that this mid-week precip sets up further east than previous
runs. Will keep lower PoPs across the eastern edge of the forecast
area for now and monitor as things become clearer. Nevertheless,
with the strong upper trough and cold advection swinging through the
region, there will be at least a low chance for some flurries or
light snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday, though nothing of
significance appears for the time being.
The highly amplified trough will sweep out of the area relatively
quickly and should allow for moderation of temperatures as the end
of the work week and next weekend approach, and the blend depicts
this reasonably well.
Mid-week should be the coldest portion of the coming week, Tuesday
night into Wednesday night, with max temps as cold as near or below
freezing Wednesday and lows Wednesday night in the teens.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1157 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Impacts:
- Southwest wind gusts peaking at 20 to 25kts this afternoon and
tonight
- Low level wind shear tonight
Discussion:
VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Winds will
increase aloft into the night. Mixing of some of these winds this
afternoon into tonight will bring wind gusts of 20 to 25kt to the
sites. Tonight winds aloft will be strong enough for some non-
convective low level wind shear.
Mainly high clouds are expected through 12Z Sunday, with some lower
to middle cloud moving into the southern sites by 18Z Sunday.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...KF/Nield
AVIATION...50
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 11:57 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412071657-KIND-FXUS63-AFDIND)
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