ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 10:05 AM EST
077
FXUS61 KILN 071505
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1005 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure south of the region will keep the area dry with a
warming trend through the weekend. A storm system will bring
rain across the area Sunday night into Monday with a continued
threat of rain into Tuesday when a cold front moves through.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will remain centered over the Tennessee Valley,
keeping the area dry but with southwest flow resulting in warm
air advection. High clouds associated with a short wave tracking
into the Great Lakes will spread into the region, but for the
most part there should be a good deal of filtered sunshine.
Highs will rise into the upper 30s to mid 40s, but with winds
gusting over 20 mph at times, it may feel up to ten degrees
colder.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Low pressure passing across the upper Great Lakes will cause
the pressure gradient to pinch a bit tonight. So after a brief
diurnal reduction, wind speeds will actually increase. However,
not expecting much in the way of gusts as an inversion sets up.
There will still be some high clouds passing across the region.
Temperatures will only fall into the lower 30s, but wind chill
will be in the lower to mid 20s.
As the low and short wave to the north depart, the high to the
south will nudge a bit further north again for Sunday. So
expecting fewer clouds until late in the day when high clouds in
advance of the next storm system approach from the southwest.
And temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
On Sunday evening, a compact closed upper low will be located
in southeastern Kansas. As this feature opens into a wave, it
will move ENE into the Ohio Valley by Monday morning. As this
wave moves into the Ohio Valley, there will be quite a bit of
theta-e advection in the 850mb-700mb layer, with some slightly
weaker theta-e advection below 850mb as well. As a result of the
upper forcing and moisture transport, widespread rainfall is
expected to blossom over the region Sunday night, especially in
the 06Z-12Z time frame heading into Monday morning. Temperatures
look easily warm enough to keep this all rain for the area. In
terms of rainfall amounts, the most likely scenario from the
blend of models is around an inch in the southern CWA, with
about a half inch (or a little more) in the northern CWA.
Probabilities for rainfall amounts of 1.5" or greater are very
low at this time.
The stronger upper/mid level forcing associated with this
initial shortwave will be departing by Monday afternoon, and
there will likely be a period of dry weather (or only spotty
light precipitation) after 18Z Monday. However, the overall
weather pattern will be amplifying more significantly Monday
night into Tuesday -- with a large trough developing upstream of
the region. It is likely that there will be additional periods
of steady precipitation at some point during the time period
from Tuesday morning through Wednesday. A surge of higher
theta-e in the boundary layer will also move northward along the
western edge of the Appalachians on Tuesday afternoon, though
this moist air will likely remain just east of the ILN forecast
area. By Tuesday evening, a surface cold front will begin
passing through the region. Once the cold advection has kicked
in behind this front, some of the precipitation could end up
turning to snow. However, timing and precipitation type
forecasts out by Wednesday are of relatively low confidence, and
the strongest forcing will likely be departing. Thus, snowfall
amounts are not expected to be much of anything.
Temperatures will be above normal on Monday and Tuesday, before
cooling significantly behind the cold front for Wednesday and
Thursday. Behind the cold front, as the upper trough moves away,
the flow pattern will turn more zonal -- but with dry
conditions expected through the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will persist with just some high clouds passing across the
area. Southwest winds will increase a bit during the day with
some gusts over 20 kt. While gusts will diminish, sustained
winds will continue through the night. In addition, low level
wind shear will occur starting around 01-02Z.
OUTLOOK...IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are likely late
Sunday night into Monday. MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely
linger through Monday night into Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 10:05 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412071505-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!