ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 10:01 AM EST
094
FXUS61 KILN 061501
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1001 AM EST Fri Dec 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold weather will continue into tonight. Then a warm up will
occur through the weekend into early next week. However, it will
become wet as rain spreads into the region Sunday night and
lingers into Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few flurries will be possible this morning across northeastern
portions of the region in central Ohio. Otherwise expect dry
conditions across the area. Most of the cloud cover will be
limited to northern portions of the region. Went close to the
blend for high temperatures today with highs in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will pass south of the region during the period.
Meanwhile, a low will track across the Great Lakes on Saturday.
This will result in an increased pressure gradient although
winds do not look too gusty. However, it will result in warm air
advection. So after another night in the teens, maybe around 20
in urban areas, highs on Saturday will nudge up into the lower
40s, although with wind chill it will feel nearly 10 degrees
colder.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
On Saturday evening, surface high pressure over the southeastern
states will be flattening in amplitude, as an area of low pressure
moves eastward across southeast Canada -- with no impacts to the
Ohio Valley. The mid level pattern will briefly become pseudo-zonal
over the region going into Sunday, in advance of a period of more
active weather beginning on Sunday night. With persistent
southwesterly boundary layer flow, the temperature trend through the
weekend and into Monday will be upward. Highs on Sunday are expected
to be in the lower 50s, with middle to even upper 50s on Monday.
The bigger item to mention through this part of the forecast is that
Sunday night into Monday will be a fairly wet period. There is high
forecast confidence in this general scenario -- with a closed low
weakening into a wave as it moves from Texas into the middle
Mississippi Valley region on Sunday evening. As this wave moves into
the Ohio Valley, there will be quite a bit of theta-e advection in
the 850mb-700mb layer, with some theta-e advection below 850mb as
well. As a result of the upper forcing and moisture transport,
widespread rainfall is expected to blossom over the region Sunday
night, especially in the 06Z-12Z time frame heading into Monday
morning. Temperatures look easily warm enough to keep this all rain
for the area. In terms of rainfall amounts, the most likely scenario
from the blend of models is around an inch in the southern CWA, with
about a half inch (or a little more) in the northern CWA. There are
lower (but reasonable) probabilities of up to an inch and a half
of rain in the Cincinnati metro area as a result of this system.
The stronger upper/mid level forcing associated with this initial
shortwave will be departing by Monday afternoon, but some light rain
may continue at times into Tuesday. By Tuesday, however, the overall
weather pattern will be amplifying more significantly -- with a
large trough developing upstream of the region. It is likely that
there will be additional periods of steady precipitation at some
point Tuesday night through Wednesday, along with a surface cold
front crossing the region at some point by Wednesday morning. Once
the cold advection has kicked in behind this front, some of the
precipitation could end up turning to snow. However, timing and
precipitation type forecasts out by Wednesday are very low
confidence, so there are no immediate signs of any impactful snow.
It is more likely that only weak forcing will remain in place once
temperatures are cold enough for snow.
Temperatures will fall below normal again by Wednesday and Thursday,
with dry conditions likely for the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR will continue. A 5-6kft deck will affect KDAY to KCMH/KLCK
early in the period. Otherwise, just some mid clouds passing
across the region from time to time. Southwesterly winds will
increase to around 10 kt today and only decrease slightly after
00Z.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may develop on Sunday. MVFR ceilings
are likely Sunday night into Monday and will probably linger
into Tuesday. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities are possible
late Sunday night into Monday morning.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...
Source: ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 6, 10:01 AM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412061501-KILN-FXUS61-AFDILN)
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