LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 2:54 PM EST
008
FXUS63 KLMK 071954
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
254 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Warmer for Sunday, with temperatures in the 50s by the afternoon.
* The next chance for widespread precipitation comes as rain Sunday
night into Monday. Around 1 to 1.5" of rain is expected across
much of the area.
* Additional rainfall is expected Tuesday and may end as a period
of light snow/flurries Tuesday evening/Wednesday morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Broad sfc high pressure has kept clear skies across our area again
today, with temps close to 50 in the west, and slightly cooler to
our north and east. We'll continue with a dry forecast for this
evening and into the overnight, with the sfc high centered over the
southeastern US providing a steady southwesterly sfc flow and weak
WAA regime.
For tonight, clear skies are expected as our atmospheric column
remains rather dry. However, a 45+kt LLJ will be rounding the base
of a sfc low that will be pivoting across the northern Great Lakes
tonight. The core of the LLJ will be focused over portions of
northern Indiana and Ohio, and strong nocturnal inversion will keep
us decoupled and prevent any of these higher winds from mixing down
to the sfc. We'll still have weak WAA as sfc winds will be from the
southwest, and as a result our overnight temps will not be as cold.
Forecast mins in the 30s, with some locations possibly remaining
above or near the freezing mark.
For tomorrow, dry conditions will continue through much of the day,
and temperatures will be trending warmer as well. Our southwesterly
flow and WAA ramps up tomorrow ahead of an approaching shortwave and
associated low pressure system that will be ejecting out of the
southwestern US. We'll start off sunny tomorrow, but clouds will be
increasing from the southwest to the northeast throughout the day.
With the WAA in place, our temps will be several degrees above
normal, with readings in the mid to upper 50s. Low end rain chances
will begin to filter into our far southwestern corner of the
forecast area by late afternoon as moisture transport increases, but
the best rain chances will arrive in the Long Term period.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...
Latest suite of model guidance continues to support the ongoing
forecast of widespread rainfall for our area Sunday evening into
Monday. A strong low-level jet axis of 40-50kts will transport rich
Gulf air into the region with PWAT values approaching 1.25 inches.
Overall, a good soaker of a system is on tap for the area with
decent amount of rainfall. Rainfall will exhibit a gradient across
the region with southern Indiana seeing a half to one inch of
rainfall. Across Kentucky, a solid 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall is
expected with the heaviest totals SE of a line from Bowling Green to
Somerset. Instability remains pretty much non-existent, so
thunderstorms will not be added to the forecast. Lows Sunday night
will be in the mid-upper 40s.
Early Monday rainfall is still expected, but this activity is
expected to move off to the northeast Monday morning with much of
the day Monday being fairly dry. Highs on the day will be in the
upper 50s across southern IN and the northern half of KY. Across
southern KY, temps are expected to reach the lower 60s. Scattered
showers are expected across the region Monday night with lows
ranging from the upper 30s over southern Indiana to the mid-upper
40s over southern KY.
As we head into Tuesday, the upper level pattern is forecast to
amplify significantly with another surface low moving northeast
through the Ohio Valley. The upper trough looks to fully phase with
the southern stream a bit east of the MS River, which makes sense
given that the MJO is in phase 5. The net result in terms of
sensible weather will be another day of rain showers with a cold
front pushing through the region Tuesday night. Highs ahead of the
front will be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s across southern IN
and northern KY, across southern/southeastern KY, highs may spike
into the upper 50s to near 60. With the cold front pushing through
Tuesday temperatures are expected to fall into the upper 20s/lower
30s Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation behind the front
probably will end as a period of snow showers Tuesday night and
early Wednesday. Current thinking is that we'll be hard pressed to
get much in the way of accumulation back in the I-65 corridor, though
some minor accumulation may occur out east of I-75.
Wednesday will likely be a cold and raw day with northwesterly winds
blowing along with scattered snow flurries about. Highs will be in
the mid 30s for most locations north of the Cumberland Parkway.
South of the Cumberland Parkway, we could see upper 30s to near 40
for highs. Lows Wednesday night will be in the upper teens to lower
20s.
Thursday through Saturday...
The remainder of the long term period continues to look quiet as we
will remain in a post frontal, cold cyclonic flow. A weak
perturbation may work through Thursday afternoon/eve with some snow
showers/flurries. After that, the flow becomes more zonal as the
upper trough lifts out. Friday continues to look rather quiet as of
this writing, but another upper wave/surface boundary looks to push
into the region by Saturday/Saturday night.
Highs Thursday will be in the upper 30s to around 40, with overnight
lows lower-mid 20s. Highs Friday should moderate a bit into the mid-
upper 40s with highs on Saturday warming back into the upper 40s to
near 50.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2024
VFR conditions will continue as high pressure sits across the
southeastern US. SSW winds are somewhat breezy this afternoon, but
no impacts are to be expected. By this evening, a LLJ will be
strengthening over the entire Ohio Valley, and will likely produce
LLWS at all terminals for tonight. However, these winds are not
expected to mix down to the sfc, so SSW sfc winds will remain under
10kts. VFR conditions will continue tomorrow, though clouds will be
increasing from the southwest tomorrow morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CJP
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 7, 2:54 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412071954-KLMK-FXUS63-AFDLMK)
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