LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 4:01 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
799
FXUS64 KLIX 012201
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
401 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024
The first few days of the forecast will be generally quiet. High
confidence in a slightly below normal temperature and dry forecast
through Tuesday. After Tuesday the forecast gets a little more
active and uncertain. As for today it has been a sunny and
pleasant day. By 19z most locations were in the lower to mid 60s.
Over the next few days we will remain in northwest flow aloft as the
L/W trough remains entrenched over the eastern CONUS with the trough
axis slowly working closer and closer to the Atlantic coast. This is
helping to usher in a reinforcing front which at 19z appears to be
just entering the CWA. This front won't bring much in the way of
colder or drier air but it will keep the area from moderating and
there may even be one more reinforcing cold front late tomorrow as
the very cold airmass in Canada quickly starts to surge down the
Plains tomorrow and may provide a glancing blow to the Lower MS
Valley overnight Monday and into Tuesday. This is where we start to
see the forecast begin to diverge in the models but more on that
after we get through the next 36 hrs.
Our first front will move through tonight but with it not being
strong and not necessarily ushering in cooler or drier air and
mainly just putting the brakes on any moderation/recovery overnight
lows will probably be fairly similar to last night. Overall freezing
temps were not quite widespread however the places that did may have
the better chance to do so again and did so Saturday morning and
with those sites already having hit freezing a few times and the
potential of seeing widespread freezing temps we will hold off on a
freeze warning tonight.
Tomorrow just like the overnight low tonight, temps will be rather
similar to todays. High pressure will continue to build in with
offshore wind and LL temps remaining steady. H925 temps of 8-10C
would mix down to around 17-19C which is in the 60s and see no
reason to disagree with that.
Tuesday morning lows could be interesting as these could be dictated
by that airmass we mentioned earlier. We will see another
reinforcing front but how fast can it get here and how much of the
airmass it is associated with push into our area. As mentioned the
last few days the mid lvl pattern would tend to favor this airmass
being shunted off to the northeast of our area however, it is a
fairly dense airmass. As it work south-southeast across the Plains
it may have just enough momentum to nudge into the our area. The
airmass will also move faster as it is surging south during the
overnight hours which should help it get over the Ozarks unlike if
it was trying to move through that area in the middle of the day. If
it can get down here fast enough it could bring another shot of
light freezing conditions to the region but the bigger implication
could be more on Tuesdays highs and Wednesday mornings lows.
Again this would only glance the area so would not expect a great
deal of CAA but it would bring another good shot of drier air and
that is the problem heading into Tuesday night. If it filters more
into our area we could see lows from the upper 20s to near 40
however if this airmass stays just off to our northeast and east and
that drier air does not filter into the region lows Wednesday
morning could range from the mid/upper 30s to lower 50s. Yes thats
right the range of possibilities is about 15-20 degrees and this is
only about 60 hrs out. 1 thought here on the forecast, even though
it makes more sense for this airmass to remain well off to the
northeast we will still remain dry and likely won't see any real
recovery till Wednesday during the day. That already promotes a
decent shot or radiational cooling overnight. With that we will
trend below the NBM deterministic as it tends to try and have us
recover too fast. The forecast for now will show temps ranging from
the lower 30s to mid 40s but don't be surprised to see some sizable
shifts in this forecast if things only deviate slightly. /CAB/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday night)
Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024
As for the extended portion of the forecast we have mentioned
that the forecast gets a little more uncertain as the models
really struggle with how to break down the Pacific coast Rex Block
and whatever works south down the windward side of the Rockies
towards northwest Mexico late in the week. With so much
uncertainty and where we are located with respect to the L/W
trough to the east and chaos over the southwestern CONUS and
northwestern Mexico it is hard to deviate much from the latest
NBM.
Wednesday and heading into next weekend the key is what happens with
the closed low that is expected to develop along the US/Mexico
border near the Baja region. As the L/W trough axis slides a little
more east and that low deepens it will cause us to go from northwest
flow to zonal flow to weak southwest flow by mid/late Thursday.
This has been somewhat consistent with models suggest for days that
the next best chance for rain could be overnight Wednesday and
through Thursday but how fast does that pull out and we dry out
again? Well, that is becoming more of a question mark now as the
models and even the ensembles show that closed low not necessarily
lifting out across the southern Plains like before. Now they are
suggesting as it tries to lift to the east-northeast another potent
s/w coming down the east side of the ridge and south towards the
Baja. This would re-establish the closed low over the Baja with the
energy from the previous low now shooting more east across the Gulf
coast. If that happens it would keep us in a cool and wet pattern
with possibly locally heavy rain into the weekend. This is the time
of the year the models may struggle especially when we have blocking
patterns and large deep L/W's in place. Patterns like this trying to
break down can take time and the models will struggle with it.
Typically it is better to lean towards a slower and more gradual
changing pattern and not the drying out that the models were showing
yesterday so it would not be a surprise to see a rather dreary cool
wet pattern in place Thursday and through the weekend. /CAB/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Sun Dec 1 2024
Again there are no concerns aviation wise. All terminals will
remain in VFR status through this TAF package. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Dec 1 2024
The reinforcing front will move through tonight with northerly winds
becoming re-established. High pressure will build in before sliding
east Wednesday while weak low pressure develops along the TX coast.
Winds will turn onshore Wednesday, gradually becoming southwesterly
into Thursday. The frontal passage Thursday will turn winds offshore
again into next weekend. At this time, Small Craft Advisories don't
appear to be necessary this week, although brief periods of Small
Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 32 62 32 54 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 38 67 39 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 34 65 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 46 63 44 58 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 37 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 31 67 30 60 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 1, 4:01 PM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412012201-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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