MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 4:15 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
610
FXUS64 KMOB 031015
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
Latest water vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough encompassing
much of the eastern CONUS, with an upper ridge building across the
Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure building into the
Tennessee Valley was keeping a light northerly flow across the local
area. Under mostly clear skies, temperatures have fallen into the
lower to mid 30s, with expected lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s
by daybreak. Dry conditions will persist through the day, as high
pressure and northwesterly flow keeps drier air filtering across the
region. Temperatures will be a bit cold across the area, as highs
struggle to climb into the lower to mid 50s. Clear skies and calm
winds will continue into the overnight hours, with lows falling into
the upper 20s to lower 30s once again tonight.
The aforementioned ridge to our west will move eastward tonight,
with flow becoming southwesterly during the day Wednesday. Surface
high pressure will also move east of the area, with surface flow
veering to the south as well. Meanwhile, an upper low will begin to
dig from Canada into the Great Lakes region early on Wednesday, with
a surface cold front trailing from its parent low well to our north.
Several weak shortwaves are expected to rotate around the base of
the trough beginning Wednesday night. This, along with the cold
front moving into the area, will allow an increase in rain chances
from west to east Wednesday night, with the better chances after
midnight. Temperatures on Wednesday will be closer to seasonal norms
as southerly flow increases, with highs warming into the upper 50s
to lower 60s and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. /73
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
The extended period is expected to be active with several
upper level shortwaves moving across the region. Most notably we
start the period with a cold front moving across the area early
Thursday bringing scattered to locally numerous showers that will
gradually shift offshore during the day Thursday. In its wake, a
very cold airmass moves in with surface high pressure over the
area Thursday night into Friday night bringing temperatures
comparable to our most recent cold spell with lows in the middle
to upper 20's inland and lower to middle 30's nearer the coast,
and highs in the upper 40's to lower 50's. This cold shot should
be relatively brief as our next upper trough begins to approach
the region late in the weekend and surface high pressure shifts
east of the area. A warm advection regime sets up Saturday through
Monday, allowing for temperatures to gradually moderate back to
the upper 60's and lower 70's for highs by Monday, and overnight
lows warming back into the lower to middle 50's inland and upper
50's to lower 60's Sunday night. With the warm advection comes an
increase in rain chances and thunderstorms during the weekend,
most notably as we head into early next week on Monday as a cold
front approaches the region from the west. It's too early to
pinpoint details as there remains some degree of variance between
the global guidance, but a low end threat for severe weather
could materialize owing to ample shear, modest forcing, and at
least some level of instability over the area, particularly if you
account for the typical model biases this far out on moisture
return. For now, it remains something to watch as we enter a much
more amplified and active pattern next week, with more systems of
interest following after Monday. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Dec 3 2024
No marine hazards anticipated the next couple days. Offshore flow
is anticipated to increase and seas begin to gradually build later
in the day Thursday following a frontal passage. /10
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 57 32 64 53 64 36 55 42 / 0 0 0 50 80 20 0 20
Pensacola 57 39 63 55 66 38 57 46 / 0 0 0 30 60 30 0 10
Destin 59 40 64 56 68 40 59 47 / 0 0 0 20 60 30 0 10
Evergreen 52 25 60 45 58 28 52 36 / 0 0 0 50 60 10 0 10
Waynesboro 52 27 61 47 57 28 51 36 / 0 0 10 70 60 10 0 20
Camden 48 25 58 45 56 26 49 35 / 0 0 0 70 60 10 0 20
Crestview 57 26 62 45 65 32 56 36 / 0 0 0 30 60 20 0 10
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 3, 4:15 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412031015-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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