MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 2, 3:41 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
933
FXUS64 KMOB 020942
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
The axis of a broad upper trough will continue to pivot eastward
today, with northwesterly flow bringing a reinforcing shot of colder
air across the Deep South. At the surface, high pressure will slowly
build southeastward through the day, with an arctic airmass settling
across the region. Given the northerly flow through the vertical
column, dry conditions will persist for the next couple of days.
Despite mostly clear skies, temperatures will remain below seasonal
norms, as highs only warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s this
afternoon. Even colder conditions are anticipated for Tuesday, as
highs struggle to rise above 50 degrees over our interior counties.
Further south, expect temps to warm into the lower to mid 50s, still
roughly 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Meanwhile, radiational
cooling conditions will prevail tonight and again on Tuesday night,
allowing overnight lows to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s. /73
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
Upper troughing continues to prevail across the eastern CONUS with
several shortwaves rounding the base of the trough during the
period. This will allow for an active weather pattern with several
opportunities for rain and varying temperatures day to day. The
period starts off with a warming trend from prior days as highs
make it into the upper 50's to lower 60's and lows Wednesday night
only fall into the middle to upper 40's inland and lower to middle
50's nearer the coast. This is thanks to surface high pressure
shifting east and allowing for warm advection to begin across the
area in advance of the next cold front. This will also be when our
first shortwave moves across the area with scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms, primarily during the overnight hours.
The front will likely finish working its way across the area by
Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the front, temperatures should manage
to reach middle to upper 60's, with interior locations seeing
upper 50's to lower 60's as cold advection begins to work its way
into the forecast area.
There remains a large spread in the temperature forecast for
Thursday night into Friday. This is largely dependent on the
evolution of another subtle southern stream shortwave and how
potent the antecedent cold airmass is that advects into the area
the day prior. Some model guidance suggests the shortwave will
exist and move across the area while others suggest the shortwave
will be negligible with zonal flow prevailing over the gulf coast
states. This will drive whether or not we have more extensive
cloud cover in addition to what kind of advection (warm or cold)
we will see as we go into Friday. If the shortwave is weak and/or
does not exist, expect a pretty cold Thursday night into Friday
night. If it does exist, then temperatures would likely be a bit
warmer than currently forecast. For now, will continue to
advertise lower to middle 30's inland and upper 30's to lower 40's
nearer the coast for Thursday night and Fridays highs in the
upper 40's to lower 50's inland and middle 50's nearer the coast.
The next upper shortwave of interest begins to move across the
gulf coast states over the weekend. There remains substantial
variance on the evolution of this feature, with the globals
handling the subtropical and polar upper jets quite differently.
For now have taken somewhat of a middle ground of scenarios for
the forecast calling for isolated to scattered rain and
thunderstorm chances during the weekend, with best chances likely
being Sunday. Overall we should see a warm advection regime set up
into the weekend allowing for temperatures to warm back into the
middle to upper 60's for most locations for highs by Sunday. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024
A light to moderate offshore flow is expected through early this
week. Light onshore flow returns midweek. A cold front moves into
the marine waters by late week bringing a moderate to strong offshore
flow. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 63 36 57 34 65 54 66 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 70 20
Pensacola 63 40 57 39 63 55 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 30
Destin 63 43 58 40 64 55 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 30
Evergreen 61 30 52 27 60 44 61 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 60 10
Waynesboro 61 30 52 28 60 47 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 70 60 20
Camden 58 28 48 25 58 44 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 0 60 60 10
Crestview 63 32 56 27 63 44 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 2, 3:41 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412020941-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!