JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 6:23 PM EST
523
FXUS63 KJKL 052323
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
623 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures are expected through Saturday night.
- Temperatures will warm over the weekend, with above normal
readings expected early next week, along with wet weather.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 359 PM EST THU DEC 5 2024
Late this afternoon, a mid and upper level trough extended from
north of Hudson Bay into eastern Canada and the eastern Conus.
An upper level low was over the St Lawrence Valley vicinity with
an associated shortwave south into New England. An upper level
ridge extended from the eastern Pacific north and then northeast
into portions of the western Conus to western Canada. A couple of
shortwaves were in northwest flow between the upper trough and
the ridging, with the first over the upper MS Valley and another
upstream of that over Manitoba. At the surface, an area of low
pressure was working into the Maritimes with a cold front east of
the eastern seaboard to near the GA/FL border and into the Gulf of
Mexico. Further west a ridge of high pressure at the sfc extended
through the Plains to the mid and upper MS Valley with ridging
extending east into the Lower OH Valley to portions of the
southern Appalachians. Some cumulus and stratocumulus lingers
across the area, with these more prevalent nearer to the WV
border and then east into WV.
This evening through Friday, the first of the upstream shortwaves
will approach the Lower and Middle OH Valley late tonight and then
pass east of the area on Friday with the shortwave further
upstream progged to cross the Great Lakes. Once this first
shortwave crosses eastern KY, the axis of the upper level trough
will move east of the area on Friday afternoon with gradual height
rises through Friday night. At the surface, the ridge of high
pressure will build south and east and become centered in the
vicinity of the Ozarks late tonight and then the TN
Valley/Memphis TN areas through Friday evening. This ridge of high
pressure will settle southeast of the area Friday night.
With high pressure building into the area, dry weather is
anticipated along with continued temperatures on the order of 15
to 20 degrees below normal all the way into Friday night. Some
linger of stratocumulus may occur this evening and into tonight or
redevelopment near the VA border and perhaps WV border per some
recent RAP and NAM runs with some moisture remaining in the 925 to
850 mb layer. This could affect low temperatures tonight/hold them
up in some of the more southeastern locations. Otherwise, with
afternoon mixed dewpoints in the single digits above zero, the
upper single digits in the normally colder locations to low to mid
teens are attainable for lows tonight assuming sufficient
decoupling. Temperatures, especially during the afternoon will
moderate about 5 to 7 degrees for Friday compared to today.
The pattern of ridging settling southeast of the area and west to
southwest flow for ridgetops will be favorable for a potentially
larger ridge/valley split on Friday night compared to tonight.
For now we have continued with mid teens deeper valleys to low 20s
coalfield ridges, though the normally colder spots could end up
closer to 10.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 PM EST THU DEC 5 2024
Saturday, high pressure builds in over eastern Kentucky. This will
lead to mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and highs in the low to mid
40s. Lows will generally remain in the mid 20s, with warm spots
around 30.
Sunday, warmer weather can be expected, with clouds increasing
through the afternoon. Highs generally in the low to mid 50s. An
upper level low will work its way across Mexico/Texas and advect
moisture north and east. The cold front will arrive around sunset,
bringing showers to the area. Rain will continue through Monday.
Lows Sunday night are expected to be warmer, in the lower 40s.
Monday, rain continues through the evening, with highs in the upper
50s to low 60s, and lows in the upper 40s, nearing 50 in spots.
During the day Monday, a secondary trough begins to dig southeast
out of the Pacific Northwest. This trough will follow the same
track as the previous, digging as far south as Mexico and Texas,
and drawing moisture poleward from the Gulf Of Mexico. Shower
chances will remain through mid week.
Tuesday, highs will warm into the mid 50s to low 60s, with rain
showers continuing through the day. Temperatures at night drop into
the low to mid 30s. A wintry mix could result heading into
Wednesday. Little to no impacts are currently expected at this time.
Highs Wednesday will remain chilly, in the upper 30s to low 40s.
Rain and snow showers continue with breezy conditions. Lows Wednesday
are expected to dip into the low to mid 20s.
Thursday, snow showers look to taper off as the frontal system is
modeled to push east of the state by mid afternoon. Highs are
forecasted in the mid to upper 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 623 PM EST THU DEC 5 2024
VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites and will remain
VFR through the TAF period. Passing high clouds may move across
the area tomorrow afternoon but nothing of consequence. Light and
variable winds will persist through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 6:23 PM EST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412052323-KJKL-FXUS63-AFDJKL)
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