PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 11:03 AM CST
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FXUS63 KPAH 051703
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1103 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front's passage will bring a blast of arctic cold today
through tomorrow.
- Temperatures moderate over the weekend into early next week,
followed by another cold blast for the latter half of the
week.
- The next storm system brings widespread rainfall Sunday and
Monday with averages from almost a half inch in the northwest
to nearly an inch and three quarters in the southeast.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
A cold front making passage will down bring a blast of arctic
cold. The models show a pool of -10 to -15C air at H8 rotates
across our northeast, with sub zero H8 temps across the entirety
of the FA. The fropa is moisture starved, but there are flurries
right now being reported at KHUF, within the heart of the cold
pool that rotates over us. It's the only report upstream, and
even if it does make it into our northeast, it'll be out by
daybreak. Gusty winds that necessitated a Wind Advisory will
also have reached their peak and be going the other direction by
then as well. The cold air will keep temperatures chilly and
well below seasonal norms today, with highs in the mid to upper
20s across our north, and around 30 elsewhere. Maybe we'll reach
just above freezing in the southern part of SEMO/Ozarks, but
it'll be brief, with most of the day spent aob the 32F mark.
The arctic high pressure funneling the cold air down will move
overhead tonight, so the cold along with good radiational
cooling and decoupling of the winds will allow temps to plummet
to our coldest levels yet this season, in the mid teens. As the
high shifts east Friday, we should start to see some return flow
and a warming profile. By the end of the weekend, it's a
moistening profile as well. That's when our next pcpn event
occurs, and it'll be an all liquid event with a seasonally mild
thermal profile by then. 48 hour total qpf for Sunday-Monday
looks to range from just shy of a half inch in our north and
west, to perhaps as high as 1.70" in our far southeast; spread
out over the 2 days, it should not pose more than
minor/localized issues if any at all. Cooler air (40s/20s) comes
in behind its departure to finish out the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2024
VFR flying conditions are expected through this TAF issuance
with good flying conditions. High pressure will build across the
area through tonight, allowing the gusty winds to become light
and variable late this afternoon through much of the day Friday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...KC
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Dec 5, 11:03 AM CST (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202412051703-KPAH-FXUS63-AFDPAH)
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