LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 4:01 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
796
FXUS64 KLIX 251001
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
401 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
So trying to fcast fog production is this hard. Everything is
perfect for radiation fog this morning. We have to look at very
small scale variations in different variables and these can and do
change within minutes to hours or the time scale. Previous model
runs had winds remaining up tonight, but we have decoupled which
brings that variable in line. These previous runs also had a strat
deck at 3-4kft coming inafter daylight today. And this was occurring
in these models right up to the midnight run. But this deck is ahead
of schedule. Vis has been down temporarily before this deck moves
over each site, then immediately rises back to 3+SM as it moves
over. This is the only variable keeping fog from forming and trying
to fcast where this deck will move dissipate or form is a headache
in any fog fcast. We will watch this closely this morning and it
will dictate the issuance of a dense fog advisory. No worries for
tonight as the environment is setting up for an advective pattern
and there are a few variables that are not falling in line for this.
There will be the possibility of fog along and just ahead of the
frontal boundary as it moves through overnight though. The next
thing to look at is sh/ts and to what extent these will play in the
fcast. Overall forcing weakens rapidly as this front moves through.
Sfc forcing is strong, but there is no support above and the front
starts to get capped as it moves through so even the showers that
will line the front will start to dissipate while moving through.
The probability of thunder is extremely low for all locations. The
highest of these numbers(~2%) is found along the front as it starts
to move through, basically over the NW section of the area. But i
would still be surprised to see any tonight. The front stalls by Tue
morning along the coast or just offshore. This will not last long,
and the front will quickly do an "about face" moving back to the
north as a warm front by Tue evening. This is when conditions could
provide a better chance for fog if cloud cover can break.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
The next front to visit looks to do so by Thu. The environment does
not look supportive of surface based severe storms, but elevated
storms will be likely but whether hail is produced will need to be
looked at closer to the event. Upper winds are oriented across the
frontal boundary to support layer lifting(isentropic lift). If this
were a slower front. At the moment, solutions are centered around
this front clearing the area with some cloudiness and light showers
left for the day and possibly night Thu. Timing shows the strong CAA
with this front moving through during the daylight hours. If this is
the case, temps would rise til the front moves in to each location
then fall steadily during the day. High pressure will then take over
for the weekend with cool temps, dry air and sunny skies.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
A few terminals may see some tempo IFR or LIFR vis this morning but
this will rapidly move in and out of IFR to VFR at times due to the
3-4kft cig moving through. May need to insert a tempo group for this
morning for this. Otherwise, VFR should mainly be the rule through
the day. Cigs will lower starting this evening from NW to SE and
will be at IFR cigs by midnight over the NW and by daylight SE.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024
A cold front is expected to rapidly move into the northern gulf
waters before stalling and may stay around the nearshore waters Tue.
This will bring a temporary wind shift from SE to N early Tue before
the front moves back north Tue night. These winds are expected to be
very light around 10kt as forcing become less with time causing this
front to stall. The next front is expected around Thu which should
clear the northern gulf with much stronger northerly winds and cold
temps.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 77 53 67 50 / 0 50 0 0
BTR 82 60 73 55 / 0 40 0 0
ASD 79 61 74 55 / 0 20 10 0
MSY 80 63 73 60 / 0 20 0 0
GPT 77 62 73 57 / 0 20 10 0
PQL 81 61 78 55 / 0 20 10 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...TE
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 25, 4:01 AM CST ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411251001-KLIX-FXUS64-AFDLIX)
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