MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 3:57 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
390
FXUS64 KMOB 280957
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
A massive upper-level longwave trough is beginning to evolve over
the eastern CONUS. As it continues to amplify, an embedded
shortwave (currently located over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley) is rounding the base of the developing trough. This
shortwave is expected to quickly pass to our north across the
Tennessee River Valley throughout the morning hours. As it passes,
it will help to send a strong cold front through the area. Timing
of the front continues to speed up, in that the front should now
be through the entire area by the early afternoon hours. Once it
passes, a Canadian high will build in from the north, helping to
advect in a much colder, drier airmass.
Current radar imagery shows a thin, broken line of showers and
thunderstorms moving through central Mississippi/Alabama along the
cold front. Although the environment out ahead of the front appears
favorable for additional storm development and even storm
organization (ample moisture, decent instability, and plenty of deep
layer shear in place), the biggest limiting factor continues to be
the lack of large scale ascent. This is due to the best forcing
remaining displaced to the north and quickly lifting further away
from the area. In fact, the only forcing mechanism present is
convergence along the cold front itself, so therefore, not expecting
coverage to increase all that much as the front sweeps through the
area. With coverage remaining very low, the overall severe threat is
also quite low. If a deeper storm does manage to develop along the
line, then gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning cannot be
ruled out. We generally dry out in the wake of the front through the
remainder of the near term period, although a few isolated showers
may attempt to develop along the immediate coastline Friday morning
as another shortwave moves to our south.
After a very mild morning, temperatures behind the front will
plummet. In fact, for most areas west of I-65, we have likely
already reached our max temperatures for the day. Lows tonight will
drop into the 40s. For Friday, most areas will stay in the mid to
upper 50s before dropping significantly into the upper 20s inland to
the mid 30s along the coast. Freeze products will likely become
necessary Friday night for counties that have yet to drop to below
the freezing mark this season. A Moderate risk of rip currents drops
to a low risk by tonight. /96
&&
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
Winter makes its presence known during the short and long term
periods Saturday through Wednesday as a cold airmass pushes into
the region Saturday and Sunday, followed up by another reinforcing
shot of colder air Monday into Tuesday. Dry weather will prevail
through Wednesday with perhaps an isolated shower or two late
Wednesday as warmer air and moisture begins to push back north
into the area.
Temperatures will be quite cold with our coldest airmass of the
season so far expected this weekend into early next week. Expect
Saturday night to be in the lower to middle 30's for most
locations, coldest over the interior. A reinforcing shot of cold
air sends overnight lows plummeting into the middle to upper 20's
over the interior Sunday night and Monday night, with upper 20's
to lower 30's elsewhere. We begin to rebound Tuesday night with
lows in the lower to middle 30's inland and upper 30's to near 40
along the coast. Frost and freeze products will likely be needed
during this period perhaps as far south as our coastal counties.
Highs will generally be steady state in the upper 50's to lower
60's Saturday and Sunday, dipping to the middle to upper 50's for
Monday in the wake of that reinforcing cold front. Tuesday begins
the rebound to highs in the upper 50's and lower 60's, with
Wednesday being notably warmer in the middle to upper 60's. A Low
risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024
Moderate southwesterly flow will continue through this
morning before a strong cold front sweeps through the area during
the afternoon hours. Moderate to strong northerly winds will develop
in the wake of the front through Friday night, along with building
seas offshore. A Small Craft Advisory is in place starting tonight
for the local Gulf waters, as well as Mobile Bay and the Mississippi
Sound. Winds and seas decrease on Saturday and a light to moderate
offshore flow is expected for the remainder of the weekend. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 70 43 57 34 60 35 64 34 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pensacola 73 47 59 38 60 40 64 38 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Destin 77 49 62 41 60 43 63 42 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
Evergreen 67 43 57 29 59 30 60 28 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Waynesboro 65 40 55 28 58 30 60 28 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Camden 64 40 55 28 58 29 60 28 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Crestview 72 45 60 31 59 29 62 30 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Saturday
for GMZ630>632-650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source: MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Nov 28, 3:57 AM CST ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... (https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=202411280957-KMOB-FXUS64-AFDMOB)
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