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SPC issues Tornado Watch 194 till 13:00Z for portions of PAH

797 
WWUS20 KWNS 070550
SEL4  
SPC WW 070550
ILZ000-MOZ000-071300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Western Illinois
  Eastern Missouri

* Effective this Tuesday morning from 1250 AM until 800 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A line of strong-severe thunderstorms will continue to
pose a threat for severe gusts and a few embedded tornadoes as it
moves eastward into the Mississippi River Valley through early
morning.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
east and west of a line from 40 miles west southwest of Poplar Bluff
MO to 20 miles north northeast of Quincy IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...WW 192...WW 193...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27045.

...Edwards

Source: SPC issues Tornado Watch 194 till 13:00Z for portions of PAH

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LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 12:36 PM EDT

835 
FXUS63 KLMK 071636
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1236 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*   Potential for multiple rounds of strong to severe storms today 
    through early Thursday. All severe hazards will be possible. 
    There is some potential that a significant severe weather event 
    could develop Wednesday afternoon and night. 

*   Localized flooding potential will exist where repeated rounds of 
    heavy rainfall occur, especially Wednesday night into early 
    Thursday.

*   Below normal temperatures return by Friday and persist into
    the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Environment outside of ongoing convection is uncapped. This is 
concerning for points west of I-65, where shear is steadily 
increasing. Will be watching the heating out ahead of current 
convection as well, where we could see some strengthening in the 
line. Cloud tops continue to cool with this line, so we may to 
switch from current SPS issuance to SVR warnings.  Shear is not 
quite as strong in this area yet, so thinking is that damaging winds 
and perhaps some hail would be the main threats. Progression of this 
line is enough that it seems to be precluding flood concerns, but 
given the very moist airmass in place, precipitable waters of 1.5-
1.7" in that northeast batch, quick ponding of roadways is likely.

Have updated the gridded forecast based on current radar trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

The short term forecast discussion is broken down into two sections 
that will handle the potential waves/rounds of strong to severe 
storms today. 

====================================================

Round 1 Timing: 15z (11am EDT) - 20z (4pm EDT) 
Confidence on severe potential: Low to Medium

====================================================

The same line of storms that impacted portions of the central and 
southern Plains yesterday will come racing toward us this morning, 
but it will be nowhere near as potent. Convective allowing models 
(CAMs) are in good agreement with a general weakening trend during 
the morning hours as the line outraces the better shear and 
instability that helped to sustain it. Most models prog what's left 
of the line to arrive on our western CWA border close to ~15z. 
Guidance begins to diverge on how it may evolve in the afternoon 
hours, with some CAMs suggesting isolated/scattered redevelopment 
along the outflow boundary while others keep things fairly quiet. 
Environmental parameters by early afternoon would certainly support 
severe storms should they develop as stronger shear gradually builds 
in from the west while instability increases from surface heating 
(low level lapse rates steepening) and moisture advection from 30-
40kt LLJ. Severe storms would be capable of all severe hazards. 
Guidance that does lean toward a 'quieter' or drier scenario tend to 
have a slightly stronger cap around 850-750mb that would impede 
convective development, so that will be something worth monitoring 
through the morning hours to see which models are 'capturing' the 
atmosphere better... and ultimately, give us, the forecaster, more 
confidence in which scenario may play out.

====================================================

Round 2
Timeframe: 20z (4pm EDT) - 09z (5am EDT)
Confidence on severe potential: Medium

====================================================

The next potential (and much more concerning) round of strong 
to severe storms will come ahead of a cold front to our west. 
Storms could start firing off by mid afternoon and push eastward
into the western CWA border starting around 20-21z. HREF 
guidance progs an axis of ~70 degree dewpoints to nudge in from 
the southwest ahead of the front, and with low level lapse rates
at their steepest levels due to peak heating, HREF MUCAPE 
generally range from 2,000-3,000 J/KG. Strong deep layer shear 
of 45-55kts will be co-located with this higher instability 
axis, which will support organized convection that includes 
supercells. 

Like this first round, there remains some uncertainty with respect 
to convective initiation. Some models/CAMs keep initiation to a 
minimum, and within those same models any convection that does 
attempt to fire off struggles and remains unimpressive looking. 
These models, unsurprisingly, have a slightly stronger capping 
inversion in the 850-750mb layer. Other models/CAMs with weaker 
capping inversions tend to result in strong convective cores 
developing with severe potential. Should severe storms develop, all 
severe hazards would be possible. 

Additional re-development along the front overnight as it slides 
into the region remains possible. Confidence is low on the severe 
potential with this activity, though, as the earlier afternoon and 
evening storms (assuming they develop) could leave cold pools or 
stabilize the atmosphere in their wake. Assuming the storms have 
access to an untapped or 'recovered' warm sector, all severe hazards 
would be possible with severe activity. 

It's important to note that the severe weather environmental 
parameters we'll observe this afternoon into the overnight hours are 
very unusual for this region and something we typically see only a 
handful of times per year. If we get severe supercellular storms 
today, some will be capable of producing very large hail in excess 
of 2 inches. Modest low level shear and helicity in this moderately 
unstable environment could result in a strong (+EF2) tornado as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

==== Significant Severe Weather Outbreak Possible Wednesday 
afternoon-Wednesday Night ==== 

==== Local Flooding Possible Wednesday Night ====

Moderate to high confidence remains for a significant regional 
severe weather event Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night for 
parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. 

Synopsis: Closed upper low centered over the northern Plains 
Wednesday morning will gradually work eastward towards the Upper 
Mississippi Valley during the day as a weak shortwave ridge builds 
over the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary 
will be located just along the Ohio River as an elongated area of 
sfc low pressure over the central plains slowly works towards 
central IN by Thursday morning. As the sfc low works towards the 
Ohio Valley, the stalled boundary will become a warm front with dew 
points south of the boundary over southern IN and central KY in the 
mid/upper 60s to even a few areas to the south near 70. As 
temperatures warm into the low/mid 80s during the afternoon, the 
atmosphere will quickly destabilize with SCAPE values ranging 
between 1500-3000 J/kg. HREF ensemble soundings indicate 0-6km bulk 
shear > 50 kt. 

The main challenge will be timing and placement of initial 
convection during the day Wednesday. While the setup for a 
significant severe weather threat continues over the Ohio Valley as 
indicated by the SPC enhanced outlook (3/5) over our entire county 
warning area, there are a few elements that could potentially impact 
the overall severe threat during the day Wednesday. 

Hi-res models are in agreement of remnant boundaries associated with 
Tuesday nights storms to be located across central TN Wednesday 
morning. This boundary looks to be the focal point for convection 
initiation during the day Wednesday. Timing and location of 
convective activity Wednesday morning into the early afternoon could 
play a large role in just how strong storms get later in the 
afternoon and evening over central KY and southern IN. Some of the 
hi-res convective allowing models want to develop convection over 
far western KY while others start to develop activity over MO 
Wednesday morning. Any cloud cover and potential outflow from this 
activity arriving early in the day before maximum heating would 
likely limit storm severity towards the afternoon. Another limiting 
factor with early convection to our south and southwest early 
Wednesday would be to limit the LLJ which is indicated by the 00z 
HRRR and to some extent the NAM3K. Finally, placement of the stalled 
boundary and its northern progression allowing for the CWA to be in 
the deep warm moist sector behind increasing instability over the 
area. A lot of the above mentioned factors will be determined by how 
the storms Tuesday into Tuesday night unfold over the area. With all 
that being said, all threats are still possible Wednesday afternoon 
with initial cellular development before becoming more of a QLCS 
ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday night into Thursday 
morning.

Tornado threat: Model sounding continue to indicate low-level 
curvature on hodographs showing the potential for plenty of 
streamwise vorticity ingestion by storms, with some eSTP values for 
tornadoes >=EF2 Wednesday afternoon. 

Hail threat: With forecast soundings showing large CAPE in the -10 
to -30C hail growth zone. Strong deep layer shear and steep mid 
level lapse rates keep large hail a possibility. 

Wind threat: While we may not have a strong LLJ to work with, high 
PWAT values leading to precipitation loading along with steep low-
level lapse rates increase the threat of strong damaging wind gusts. 

Flash Flood threat: With PWAT values above 1.50" and numerous 
clusters of storms Wednesday afternoon along with a line of storms 
Wednesday night into Thursday moving through the area. Add to that 
already wet ground from rains over the last couple of days will 
increase the threat and concerned for localized flash flooding. 
Especially in areas that will see heavy rain on Tuesday then again 
on Wednesday. 

With the above mentioned limiting factors, confidence is higher for 
linear severe storms associated with the approaching cold front than 
the development of supercells during the afternoon and early evening 
on Wednesday. 

**Like any forecast, there are sources for potential bust. Any 
convection that might get going Wednesday morning could decrease 
instability for afternoon redevelopment, as would cloudiness being 
more widespread, or stronger capping in our position well within the 
warm sector. While a significant severe weather event is still a 
possibility, this isn't a done deal. Stay tuned to the latest 
forecast information between now and Wednesday afternoon to keep 
abreast of changes.**

Thursday - Monday:

Amplified pattern develops Thursday through the remainder of the 
forecast period with a large ridge building to the west and deep 
trough across the eastern US. This will keep occasional 
shower/storms chances in the forecast thanks to a series of 
shortwave disturbances moving through the northwest flow aloft. 
Temperatures during this period will be below normal for early May 
with highs in the 70s and even 60s on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Wide range of cigs/vis across the region this morning, with the 
worst (LIFR) conditions generally near the I-75 corridor while areas 
farther to the west are mostly VFR. The stratus/fog should gradually 
lift to VFR levels by mid to late morning with surface heating.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms are anticipated today. The 
timing of these rounds is somewhat reflected in the TAFs, though 
there could be showers/storms outside of the highlighted periods 
where confidence in development and/or coverage is not very high. 
Any TAF site that experiences a shower or storm today could see 
brief gusty winds as well as reduced cigs/vis.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RJS
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...DM

Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at May 7, 12:36 PM EDT

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JKL issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at May 7, 4:52 AM EDT

867 
FLUS43 KJKL 070852
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
452 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-080900-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
452 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, especially this afternoon to early this
evening and again late tonight. Some of the storms could be severe
and produce damaging wind gusts and hail. An isolated tornado is 
also possible, especially for areas near and north of Interstate 64.

Locally heavy rainfall from these storms could also lead to isolated
instances of flooding this afternoon and tonight.

See our website for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms should affect the area at times from Wednesday into 
Thursday evening. Some of these storms could be severe, mainly from 
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The greatest threats 
are large hail and damaging winds, but there is also a risk of 
tornadoes. See our website for more information.

Locally heavy rainfall from these storms could also lead to isolated
instances of flooding from Wednesday into Thursday.

In addition, there is a potential for thunderstorms on Sunday, 
mainly during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any instances of damaging winds,
large hail, heavy rain, or flooding that may occur through Wednesday
night or Thursday morning. 

$$

JP

Source: JKL issues Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) at May 7, 4:52 AM EDT

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ILN expires Tornado Warning for Fayette, Franklin, Union [IN]

391 
WWUS51 KILN 080027
SVSILN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
827 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

INC041-047-161-080036-
/O.EXP.KILN.TO.W.0038.000000T0000Z-240508T0030Z/
Franklin IN-Union IN-Fayette IN-
827 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN
SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN UNION AND SOUTHERN FAYETTE
COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA WILL EXPIRE AT 830 PM EDT...

The Tornado Warning that was previously in effect has been reissued 
portions of Franklin, Fayette, and Union counties and is in effect 
until 9:00 PM EDT. Please refer to that bulletin for the latest 
severe weather information.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM EDT for southeastern
and east central Indiana.

Please report previous tornadoes, wind damage or hail to the National
Weather Service by going to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submitting your report via social media.

Remember, a Tornado Warning still remains in effect for portions of 
Franklin, Fayette, and Union counties until 9:00 PM EDT.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 8499 3948 8501 3951 8525 3962 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 271DEG 29KT 3958 8507 

$$

Aiena

Source: ILN expires Tornado Warning for Fayette, Franklin, Union [IN]

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