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31
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:42 PM CDT

106 
FXUS63 KPAH 291942
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through
  Monday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be
  possible.

- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal
  highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Lower heights extend across the northern tier of the US this
afternoon with an upper level disturbance to the northwest.
A few showers and storms have resulted and will continue into
the evening hours. PW's remain very high with values over 2
inches and will result in periods of heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding. A few isolated or scattered showers/storms may
continue into the night as low level waa remains atop the
region. Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across
the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the
region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Increasing wind
fields aloft may lead to a strong to severe risk with any
thunderstorm complex with damaging winds the primary hazard.
Once again, localized flash flooding will be possible.

We finally see some drier weather behind the front Tuesday.
Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper
level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the
forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins
to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures
in the upper 80's early to mid week will rise into the low to
mid 90's by the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Lower confidence forecast on timing and coverage of convection
this afternoon. Cloud cover and earlier rain has slowed
destabilization today. Can't rule out SHRA or maybe isolated
thunder but don't have more confidence to introduce any higher
probs than prob30 at least for now. AMD may become necessary if
higher confidence develops. Additional isolated shower or storm
activity is possible overnight. A cold front will move in from
the northwest late in the TAF period, most likely after 18z but
could offer scattered showers or storms toward the end of the
TAF period. Winds from the southwest around or less than 5
knots are expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD

Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:42 PM CDT

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32
LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 71 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing

274 
CDUS43 KLMK 300025
CLILOU

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
825 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025

...................................

...THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 29 2025...
VALID AS OF 0825 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                 
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE  FROM      YEAR                 
                                      NORMAL                       
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                         
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         88    517 PM  87      1       92                   
  MINIMUM         71    518 AM  68      3       80                   
  AVERAGE         80            78      2       86                 

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  TODAY            0.00          0.17  -0.17     0.00                 
  MONTH TO DATE    2.40          4.51  -2.11     2.88                 
  SINCE JUN 1      2.40          4.51  -2.11     2.88                 
  SINCE JAN 1     29.08         25.28   3.80    24.79                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                             
  TODAY            0             0      0        0                   
  MONTH TO DATE    1             0      1        5                   
  SINCE JUN 1      1             0      1        5                   
  SINCE JUL 1   4032          4146   -114     3674                   

 COOLING                                                             
  TODAY           15            13      2       21                   
  MONTH TO DATE  338           300     38      308                   
  SINCE JUN 1    338           300     38      308                   
  SINCE JAN 1    467           483    -16      509                   
.......................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    16   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (210)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    22   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.8                                       


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                   
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  THUNDERSTORM                                                       


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    94           100 AM                                     
 LOWEST     57           600 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    76                                                       

..........................................................


THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   87        MM        MM                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   69        MM        MM                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE   622 AM EDT   SUNSET   910 PM EDT     
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE   623 AM EDT   SUNSET   910 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

$$

BJS

Source: LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 71 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing

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33
The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 29, 8:18z for portions of JKL

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

Source: The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 3 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 29, 8:18z for portions of JKL

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34
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #554 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

172 
AWUS01 KWNH 300633
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z.  Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently.  Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs.  The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall.  The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so.
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region.  Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846
            38858809 39258725

Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #554 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

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35
More 'soft power signals': On heels of King's visit, Prince Edward takes week-long trip to P.E.I., Ontario

'A

Prince Edward, King Charles's younger brother, is focusing on a range of issues during his week-long trip to Canada, including support of young Canadians and the military. His visit will also focus on issues that have become a priority for the Crown in Canada and send signals of the soft power the monarchy can try to wield.


Source: More 'soft power signals': On heels of King's visit, Prince Edward takes week-long trip to P.E.I., Ontario

-----------------------
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36
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 1:14 AM EDT

795 
FXUS61 KBOX 260514
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
114 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning cooler Thursday through Saturday, then warming Sunday
into early next week, with daily chances of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:


* Widely scattered thunderstorms wind down with the loss of daytime
  heating

* Temperatures and dewpoints rapidly fall overnight behind backdoor
  cold front

Relief from excessive heat and humidity is well on its way as a cold
front currently located across portions of central New Hampshire
continues to move south. A few widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the next few hours. The best chance
of this activity will be across portions of central and eastern
Massachusetts where the seabreeze boundary will act as a focus for
activity. Generally expecting storms to remain below severe limits
as MLCAPE values wane behind the front. Falling temperatures and
dewpoints will allow the Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of
our CWA except the Worcester Hills and coastal areas to expire
at 7 pm. Outside of the lingering heat-related statements, the
Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management has issued
an Air Quality Action Day for Ground Level Ozone, that will
remain in effect through 11pm EDT this evening. An Air Quality
Action day means that Ground Level Ozone concentrations within
the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Much cooler behind backdoor cold front
* Weak upper disturbance and WAA brings widely scattered showers

Temperatures on Thursday will be about 25 to 30 degrees lower than
today as southward moving high pressure allows for an easterly flow.
Highs will struggle to get out of the upper 60s and lower 70s for
much of the region. In terms of precipitation, high-res guidance is
advertising a band of showers across much of the region. These
showers are due to upper mid-level WAA around the periphery of the
backdoor cold front. Not expecting a washout, but low clouds and
cooler temps will make for a somewhat gloomy day on Thursday. Cool
and cloudy conditions continue Thursday night with lows falling into
the upper 50s and lower 60s regionwide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages:

Key Messages...

* Significantly cooler weather continues Friday and into the weekend
  before temps return to the upper 80s and low 90s early next week.

* Daily chances of rain and some thunderstorms possible each day
  through Sunday, drier Monday, then more unsettled weather
  possible around Tuesday. 

Relief from the heat continues Friday into the weekend with a
flattening of the ridge and surface high pressure expanding south
from Canada. Cool northeast/onshore flow will be directed off the
Atlantic over southern New England. This results in high
temperatures about 30 degrees colder than we experienced earlier in
the week, below normal for late June. Highs on Friday and Saturday
will remain in the low to mid 70s, helped by plenty of cloud cover.
Things begin to change by Sunday and beyond as a trough of low
pressure approaches, turning winds back to the southwest. This
advects warmer air north as highs return to the mid to upper 80s Mon-
Wed. At this point ensembles indicate only a very slight (<20%)
chance of seeing 90s again. Stay tuned. 

As for rain chances, we'll see periods of wet weather return to the
forecast Friday and through the weekend. Flow will be quasi-zonal ,
lacking any big significant storm systems. Moreso we'll see several
weak disturbances moving through between Thursday and early next
week. The best chance of seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain
in any 24 hour period according to ensemble guidance is Saturday (of
course) with both the EPS and GEFS showing a 70%+ chance, greatest
further north, less to the south. There remains a decent
discrepancy in the placement of the front Saturday which will
determine how wet it may be, but should see increasing
confidence over the next 24 hours. Brief ridging follows Monday
which keeps things dry before another more robust shortwave
toward Tuesday brings renewed rain and thunderstorm chances. &&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z: High Confidence.

VFR. Shower chances are highest across the southern coastal
waters. Wind shifts to the northeast, less than 10 knots across
the interior and 10 to 15 knots across eastern Massachusetts and
Rhode Island.

Today: Moderate Confidence.

VFR. Periods of showers are possible, leading to MVFR
conditions though confidence is lower in exact location and
timing. Northeast to east winds around 10 knots. localized gusts
along the east coast of MA to 18-20 knots.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA,
chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Monday: Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and Thursday: High Confidence.

Weak cold front approaches from the north, increasing clouds and a
few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Northern waters have northerly
winds while the southerly waters have a southerly wind. Wind becomes
northeast for all waters Wednesday night and increase to 10 to 15
knots. Seas are less than 2 feet. Cold front settles south of the
southern outer waters with east/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and
gusting to 20 knots. Seas building from the south 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...FT

Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 1:14 AM EDT

----------------
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37
6 SW Biloxi [Gmz532 Co, MS] Broadcast Media reports Waterspout at 9:27 AM CDT -- A video showed two waterspouts in the Mississippi Sound simultaneously just south of Biloxi.

589 
NWUS54 KLIX 271627
LSRLIX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1127 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     Waterspout       6 SW Biloxi             30.34N 88.97W
06/27/2025                   GMZ532             MS   Broadcast Media 

            A video showed two waterspouts in the
            Mississippi Sound simultaneously just south
            of Biloxi.


&&

$$

MEFFER

Source: 6 SW Biloxi [Gmz532 Co, MS] Broadcast Media reports Waterspout at 9:27 AM CDT -- A video showed two waterspouts in the Mississippi Sound simultaneously just south of Biloxi.

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38
MOB issues Flood Advisory for Okaloosa, Santa Rosa [FL] till Jun 28, 8:45 AM CDT

587 
WGUS84 KMOB 281145
FLSMOB

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

FLC091-113-281345-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0054.250628T1145Z-250628T1345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Okaloosa FL-Santa Rosa FL-
645 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of northwest Florida, including the following
  counties, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa.

* WHEN...Until 845 AM CDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.
  Ponding of water in urban areas is imminent.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 640 AM CDT, Doppler radar and nearby rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is expected
    to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches
    of rain have fallen in a very short period of time.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB,
    Valparaiso, Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Navarre,
    Shalimar, Cinco Bayou, Navarre Beach, Longwood, Eglin
    Village, Wynnehaven Beach, Postil, Harper, Seminole and
    Holley.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8666 3059 8639 3038 8639 3039 8663
      3039 8674 3037 8692 3037 8694 3044 8695
      3052 8697


$$

Source: MOB issues Flood Advisory for Okaloosa, Santa Rosa [FL] till Jun 28, 8:45 AM CDT

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39
DUBOIS PA Jun 28 Climate Report: High: 82 Low: 66 Precip: 0.09" Snow: Missing

566 
CDUS41 KPBZ 290622
CLIDUJ

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
222 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025

...................................

...THE DUBOIS PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 28 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1960 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST     
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                         
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         82   1156 AM  90    1971  78      4       81       
  MINIMUM         66    515 AM  46    1970  58      8       53       
  AVERAGE         74                        68      6       67     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                   
  YESTERDAY        0.09         MM      MM   0.14  -0.05     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    5.63                      4.38   1.25     2.39     
  SINCE JUN 1      5.63                      4.38   1.25     2.39     
  SINCE JAN 1     21.20                     20.36   0.84    21.72     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        0                         1     -1        0       
  MONTH TO DATE   45                        71    -26       35       
  SINCE JUN 1     45                        71    -26       35       
  SINCE JUL 1   5691                      6672   -981     5080       

 COOLING                                                             
  YESTERDAY        9                         4      5        2       
  MONTH TO DATE  126                        73     53      151       
  SINCE JUN 1    126                        73     53      151       
  SINCE JAN 1    153                       105     48      211       
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                           
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    17   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (240)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    23   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION     W (270)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     6.8                                       


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                   
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  THUNDERSTORM                                                       
  RAIN                                                               
  LIGHT RAIN                                                         
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST   100           700 PM                                     
 LOWEST     69          1200 PM                                     
 AVERAGE    85                                                       

..........................................................


THE DUBOIS PA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   78        91      2021                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   58        48      1989                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                   
JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE   546 AM EDT   SUNSET   852 PM EDT     
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE   546 AM EDT   SUNSET   852 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: DUBOIS PA Jun 28 Climate Report: High: 82 Low: 66 Precip: 0.09" Snow: Missing

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40
The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 30, 9:47z for portions of CLE

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Source: The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 1 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 30, 9:47z for portions of CLE

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41
The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 29, 8:18z for portions of IWX

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Source: The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 29, 8:18z for portions of IWX

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42
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:53 PM EDT

341 
FXUS63 KIND 291853
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storm chances persist through Monday night with the
  greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening hours

- Localized flooding is the primary threat through Monday night,
  but isolated strong wind gusts are also possible Monday
  afternoon and evening

- Drier and slightly cooler weather expected towards the middle of this
  week before more humid conditions return Friday into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday Night)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Yet another afternoon with scattered convection over the region with
a moist and unstable airmass in place. 18Z temperatures are lower
than the last several days courtesy of the convection and plentiful
cloud coverage...running generally in the low to mid 80s.

Unsettled weather will continue through Monday as a series of upper
level waves track through the Ohio Valley followed by a cold front
Monday night. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will persist as a
result...with highest coverage expected Monday afternoon and
evening.

Showers and storms are pockmarked across the forecast area this
afternoon and will likely increase in coverage over the next few
hours as instability levels peak. The KIND ACARS sounding shows poor
lapse rates present through the column...meaning stronger winds from
collapsing downdrafts are likely to be less of a concern into the
evening. The greatest impact remains the potential for localized
flooding from slow moving convection producing torrential downpours.
PWATs are already near 2 inches and are likely to tick up further
into the evening. Best potential for storms remains across the
southern half of the forecast area where deepest moisture resides
but convection really could pop up anywhere across central Indiana.

The loss of diurnal heating this evening should lead to convective
coverage diminishing but that respite is expected to be brief and
last only into the early overnight. The first of the series of upper
level waves associated with a broader trough aloft will arrive
during the predawn hours with scattered convection increasing yet
again prior to daybreak. This will parlay into Monday as the
combination of the forcing aloft with an approaching cold front will
interact with the moist unstable airmass across the Ohio Valley for
numerous to widespread convection peaking during the afternoon and
evening.

The risk for a few storms producing damaging winds is greater by
late day with the infusion of slightly better BL shear present
immediately ahead of the upper trough axis but an overall skinny and
elongated CAPE profile with unidirectional shear profiles is
supportive of a generally messy multicellular convective mode for
the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain and localized flooding will
remain primary concerns as well. Showers and storms will continue
into Monday night ahead of the frontal boundary with rain ending
from west to east overnight as the front sweeps off to the east.

Temps...lows tonight will fall mainly into the lower 70s. Highs are
expected in the mid 80s on Monday. As cooler air advects into the
region behind the frontal passage Monday night...lows will drop into
the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Unsettled weather for the early part of this week will shift
east Tuesday morning as a drier and slightly cooler airmass builds
in courtesy of broad surface high pressure and drier northwest flow
aloft. Upper level ridging will return by late next week with a
likely return to isolated to scattered diurnal convection Friday
into the weekend as a hotter and more humid airmass reestablishes
across the Ohio Valley.

Tuesday through Thursday..

Other than a few lingering showers Tuesday morning...mostly quiet
weather conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday as high
pressure settles across the region. Dewpoints will finally fall back
into the lower and middle 60s and perhaps even down into the upper
50s in northern portions of the forecast area for midweek...a
refreshing respite from the oppressive air of the last week or so.
While largely dry conditions are expected...a few showers and storms
are possible focused mainly across northern counties by Thursday
afternoon as a weak front drifts into the lower Great Lakes. Highs
will mainly reside in the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday
before beginning to rise on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...

The arrival of ridging aloft coinciding with a weakening of the
surface high will enable deeper moisture to advect back into the
Ohio Valley for late week with growing confidence in higher dewpoint
air at or above 70 degrees making a return for Independence Day into
next weekend. Instability will increase in response with isolated to
scattered pulse intensity...short lived and slow moving convection
developing during the afternoon and evening ...mainly Saturday and
Sunday. May see an increase in overall convective coverage late next
weekend into early next week with signals in the ensembles for a
cold front to approach the region from the northwest. Highs will
rise back into the lower 90s for next weekend with heat indices
again approaching 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms through the afternoon, then more
  numerous coverage late tonight into Monday
- Patchy fog possible near daybreak Monday
- MVFR ceilings at times early this afternoon then again on Monday

Discussion: 

Moist and unstable airmass across the region will again aid in
scattered convective development through the afternoon...especially
across the southern half of central Indiana. Brief restrictions will
be possible with any heavier shower or storm. Ongoing pockets of
MVFR stratocu will lift to VFR levels over the next few hours as
well.

There may be a brief lull in convection this evening as diurnal
heating is lost but a series of weak upper level waves set to move
through the Ohio Valley overnight and into Monday will bring
additional convection to central Indiana likely to be more
widespread in coverage on Monday.

MVFR ceilings are again a possibility in the predawn hours through
the first half of Monday. Winds will generally be light and
southerly through much of the forecast period...veering to southwest
on Monday and increasing closer to 10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan

Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:53 PM EDT

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43
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #547 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

233 
AWUS01 KWNH 290802
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-291400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
401 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kansas into central and south-central
Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 290800Z - 291400Z

Summary...A few areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand in coverage across the discussion area.  Areas
of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected through at least 14Z/9a CDT
this morning, which could prompt flash flooding.

Discussion...Scattered convection was developing along an axis
from east-central Kansas (near Emporia eastward to near Sedalia
and southeastward to the MO/AR border near Cherokee Village.  The
storms were being forced by ascent on the nose of stronger 850mb
flow located across Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, with speed
convergence providing lift amid a marginally unstable (1000 J/kg
MUCAPE) but plenty moist (1.5+ inch PW) environment.  The storms
are developing amid weak steering flow aloft, resulting in slow
movement and redevelopment within the axis of best low-level
convergence.  The slow movement was already enabling spots of 1
inch/hr rain rates to materialize in central Missouri, which may
result in isolated excessive runoff in the near term despite
values falling short of hourly FFG.

Models/observations suggest that persistent low-level convergence
across the discussion area will continue to promote redevelopment
and expansion of convection through the early morning hours.  An
attendant increase in rainfall rates (into the 1.5 inch/hr range
in spots) is also expected.  These rain rates will threaten FFG
thresholds and promote a risk of flash flooding especially in
urban and sensitive locales through 14Z/9a CDT this morning.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   39749527 39699367 38599109 37209056 36509081
            36309167 36869256 38309426 38429556 39089600

Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #547 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

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44
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:39 PM EDT

469 
FXUS63 KLMK 291839
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but
  most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far
and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and
unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to
develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate
this evening as the sun sets.

Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light
southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog
development especially in protected valley areas.

Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio
Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will
increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing
to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of
showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will
likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning
through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered
showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as
the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access
to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates
compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for
storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of
the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the
first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet
microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain.
Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and
instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily
weaken overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday - Thursday...

The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing
lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid
week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time.
High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Independence Day - Next Weekend...

An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week
bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over
the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high
pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping
conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late
Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region
and precip chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated showers are beginning to develop over the western portion
of the region. These showers will continue to increase in coverage
to widely scattered showers and storms. A storm would be capable of
gusty winds and heavy rain. Diurnal convection will begin to
dissipate with sunset. The first half of the overnight will remain
dry with light southerly winds. The latter half of the night will
feature a cluster of showers and storms moving in and dissipating as
it continues east across the region. This cluster of showers would
help to lower CIGs in the morning. After sunrise, CIGs will begin to
lift and winds will pick up out of the southwest. Another round of
showers and storms (some strong) is expected to develop in the
afternoon on Monday and last through the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW

Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:39 PM EDT

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45
The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 29, 8:18z for portions of JKL

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Source: The Weather Prediction Center issues Day 2 Marginal Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jun 29, 8:18z for portions of JKL

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