ThreatWeb

LIX extends time of Flood Warning for Pearl River near Pearl River [LA] till Mar 25, 1:00 AM CDT

642 
WGUS84 KLIX 231455
FLSLIX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
955 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Louisiana...Mississippi...

  Pearl River Near Pearl River affecting Pearl River, St. Tammany 
  and Hancock Counties.

For the Lower Pearl River...including Pearl River...Minor flooding 
is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks.

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Additional information is available at www.weather.gov/lix.  Click 
on the Rivers and Lakes menu for forecasts and observations.

The next statement will be issued late tonight at 200 AM CDT.

&&

LAC103-MSC045-109-240700-
/O.EXT.KLIX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-250325T0600Z/
/PERL1.1.ER.250309T2130Z.250322T0100Z.250325T0000Z.NO/
955 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Pearl River near Pearl River.

* WHEN...Until early Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 14.0 feet, Secondary roads to the river and 
  throughout Honey Island Swamp are inundated. Property in the 
  vicinity of the gage is flooded threatening about 20 homes along 
  the left bank.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 AM CDT Sunday the stage was 14.3 feet.
  - Bankfull stage is 12.0 feet.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall below flood stage
    tomorrow evening and continue falling to 12.4 feet Wednesday,
    April 02.
  - Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3020 8955 3018 8964 3067 8990 3067 8976


$$

DM

Source: LIX extends time of Flood Warning for Pearl River near Pearl River [LA] till Mar 25, 1:00 AM CDT

---------------
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WHEELING WV Mar 23 Climate Report: High: 50 Low: 26 Precip: 0.25" Snow: Missing

024 
CDUS41 KPBZ 240538
CLIHLG

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
138 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

...................................

...THE WHEELING WV CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 23 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1878 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         50   1159 PM  82    2012  53     -3       42       
  MINIMUM         26    536 AM   6    1906  33     -7       28       
  AVERAGE         38                        43     -5       35     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.25          1.49 1953   0.11   0.14     0.05     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.88                      2.14  -1.26     1.53     
  SINCE MAR 1      0.88                      2.14  -1.26     1.53     
  SINCE JAN 1      4.21                      7.04  -2.83     6.96     

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       27                        22      5       30        
  MONTH TO DATE  386                       597   -211      417        
  SINCE MAR 1    386                       597   -211      417        
  SINCE JUL 1   4099                      4656   -557     3767        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    3                         0      3        0        
  SINCE MAR 1      3                         0      3        0        
  SINCE JAN 1      3                         0      3        0        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    23   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SE (140)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    35   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SE (140)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     7.6                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.4                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  RAIN                                                                
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    83          1100 PM                                      
 LOWEST     32           200 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    58                                                        

..........................................................


THE WHEELING WV CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   53        81      1910                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   34        10      1940                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
MARCH 24 2025.........SUNRISE   719 AM EDT   SUNSET   739 PM EDT     
MARCH 25 2025.........SUNRISE   717 AM EDT   SUNSET   740 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: WHEELING WV Mar 23 Climate Report: High: 50 Low: 26 Precip: 0.25" Snow: Missing

---------------
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IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 5:32 AM EDT

242 
FXUS63 KIWX 220932
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
532 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two systems move across the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing
  a slight chance for light rain showers this morning before
  snow showers mix in later today and another, more widespread
  chance for mainly rain area-wide on Sunday before again some 
  snow showers begin to mix in on Monday.

- Seasonable to slightly cooler than normal temperatures
  continue through the upcoming week with several additional
  chances for rain/snow.

- Warming trend sets in towards the end of next week. Above
  normal temperatures will be in place by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Did lower pops for this morning as 15 to 20 degree dew point
depressions has allowed most precipitation to dry before
reaching the ground. This should continue through the morning.
Any precipitation that does reach the ground will be very light. 

With the active pattern in place over the next several days we
will continue to see a see-saw pattern for temperatures with
weak troughs bringing some cooling and weak ridging bringing
some warming. Today, a weak trough will continue to move through
the area and will see highs only in the low to mid 40s. A weak
mid level ridge moving through the Midwest will begin to move in 
later today and bring a reduction in clouds with a few areas
perhaps clearing out before clouds once again increase ahead of
the next trough moving eastward into the area. Southeasterly winds
will also be on the increase tonight into Sunday bringing 
breezy to gusty conditions. Gusts on Sunday will approach 25 
mph. With dew points starting out in the teens on Sunday
moisture advection will increase dew points into the 40s by
Sunday afternoon. With this in mind precipitation will be
somewhat delayed especially on the onset as the lower levels
moisten up. By late morning sufficient moistening should allow
for rain showers to begin reaching the ground in our western
parts of the CWA and spread eastward through the day. Latest
model guidance seems to be picking up on this and recent QPF
runs have been lowered. About a quarter inch of rainfall or less
is now expected across the area. Highs on Sunday slightly warmer
in the upper 40s. 

By Monday morning, a northwesterly flow will develop across the
area and bring lake enhanced showers with some snow showers 
mixing in especially for the northern half of the CWA. The 
better chances of snow showers will be near the northern 
IN/southern MI border areas. Highs on Monday will range from the
lower 40s north to the upper 40s perhaps low 50s south. We will
see a slight warming trend in temperatures each day Tuesday 
through Thursday, with highs ranging in the mid 40s to mid 50s,
along with periods of rain showers and some snow showers mixing
in for overnight periods with the continued parade of weak 
disturbances moving through the northwesterly flow aloft. This 
is ahead of a high amplitude ridging that will be building over
the central CONUS and by Friday and Saturday high temperatures 
will jump into the 60s with a few locations most likely seeing
low 70s, especially south of SR-30. Did keep some convective 
rain showers in the forecast at this time but will continue to 
monitor this prospect as the strong ridging should limit this  
potential.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... 
Issued at 531 AM EDT Sat Mar 22 2025

Post-frontal cool cyclonic northwest flow will allow a MVFR to low 
VFR stratocu cloud deck to lock in through the early to mid 
afternoon hours. Northwest winds gust to near 20 knots as well 
during this time, becoming light tonight as a low level ridge axis 
translates east through the region. 

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Andersen
AVIATION...Steinwedel

Source: IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 22, 5:32 AM EDT

---------------
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PAH updates Tornado Watch (cancels Caldwell, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Lyon, Marshall [KY], continues Calloway, Christian, Todd, Trigg [KY]) till Mar 23, 11:00 PM CDT.

310 
WWUS63 KPAH 240033
WCNPAH

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 60
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
733 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

KYC033-075-083-105-143-157-240145-
/O.CAN.KPAH.TO.A.0060.000000T0000Z-250324T0400Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 60 FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KENTUCKY THIS CANCELS 6 COUNTIES

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

CALDWELL              FULTON                GRAVES               
HICKMAN               LYON                  MARSHALL             

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTON, CLINTON, EDDYVILLE, HICKMAN, 
MAYFIELD, AND PRINCETON.

$$

KYC035-047-219-221-240400-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.A.0060.000000T0000Z-250324T0400Z/

TORNADO WATCH 60 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN KENTUCKY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN WESTERN KENTUCKY

CALLOWAY              CHRISTIAN             TODD                 
TRIGG                 

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF CADIZ, ELKTON, HOPKINSVILLE, 
AND MURRAY.

$$

JGG

Source: PAH updates Tornado Watch (cancels Caldwell, Fulton, Graves, Hickman, Lyon, Marshall [KY], continues Calloway, Christian, Todd, Trigg [KY]) till Mar 23, 11:00 PM CDT.

---------------
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JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 5:20 AM EDT

678 
FXUS63 KJKL 240920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
520 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of sfc waves crosses the area tonight into Wednesday
  with successive rounds of showers - mainly affecting northeast
  parts of the state - but with generally a third of an inch or
  less of total rainfall.

- Near-normal temperatures are expected for much of the work week,
  but a significant warming trend is expected by next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 430 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows the cold front now southeast of the state
with a weakening area of showers and lower clouds departing the 
area, as well. High clouds remain behind while the winds are
running from the northwest at 5 to 10 mph with some higher gusts.
Colder air is is inbound on those winds with temperatures 
currently varying from the mid 40s northwest to the lower 50s in 
the far southeast. Meanwhile, dewpoints range similarly from the 
lower 40s northwest to the low 50s in the far southeast. 

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
fairly good agreement aloft despite a several quick moving waves 
of significance moving through the Ohio Valley during the short 
term portion of the forecast. They all depict the first of these 
transitioning through eastern Kentucky this morning with an 
accompanying axis from the deep 5h trough north of the eastern 
Great Lakes. While this passes quickly, another associated impulse
zips into the state on northwest flow this evening passing 
through the JKL area by midnight. Next up, a stronger trailing 
one at mid levels swings into the northern parts of the state 
early Tuesday with ample energy pressing south into eastern 
Kentucky by midday and continuing through the afternoon - a little
quicker with the GFS cluster than the ECMWF favored one. The 
still relatively small model spread aloft supported using the NBM 
as the starting point for the forecast grids through the period. 
Did make some adjustments to incorporate more CAMs guidance into 
the PoPs for later tonight and Tuesday.

Sensible weather features a breather for the area today between a 
rapid successions of clippers moving through this part of the 
state due to the anchoring effect of the nearby trough to the 
north of the region. Each of these appears enough to bring decent
rain chances to eastern Kentucky, but mainly favoring the 
northeast parts. Despite the rain of the past night, we will 
likely see some lower RH (below 30 percent) for a time in the 
east this afternoon along with breezy afternoon winds. For now, 
will highlight this in the Fire Weather forecast discussion and 
hold off on an SPS or any other headlines. The first shot of 
showers then arrives after dark this evening from the northwest 
and quickly spreads east through the night with some potential to 
linger for the tri-state region near the Ohio River as more energy
pours in aloft by midday, Tuesday. Only a brief lull between 
these waves is anticipated at this time with more showers possible
by evening from the next system. The clouds and striation in pcpn
chances will keep temperatures more uniform than typical tonight,
but a definite warmer area of the CWA will be noted to the 
southwest on Tuesday - freer of the lower clouds and sustained 
rain chances. Rainfall amounts, at best, look to be a third of an 
inch from these waves through mid week - not exactly providing 
much relief to the dry fire weather conditions of the northeast
parts of the state.

The changes to the NBM starting point consisted primarily of
lowering dewpoints a notch this afternoon for extra mixing. As 
for PoPs, mainly enhanced them with timing and coverage details 
from the CAMs tonight through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 520 AM EDT Mon Mar 24 2025

When the long term forecast period opens on Tuesday night, Eastern 
Kentucky will be in a regime of cyclonic flow around the base of a 
longwave trough aloft. A couple of shortwave impulses are likely to 
approach the forecast area in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, 
although the exact evolution of these features remains a bit unclear 
in the forecast guidance. The greatest signal for precipitation will 
come earlier in the day on Tuesday, but activity is likely to linger 
into the evening hours. Atmospheric moisture looks limited, but the 
cyclonic vorticity advection around the base of the trough could 
provide just enough dynamic lift to squeeze out more light rain 
showers overnight. On Wednesday, surface flow is expected to shift 
towards a more northwesterly orientation. This corresponds with the 
trough axis shifting to the east, resulting in cooler temperatures 
at both the surface and aloft. Moisture looks even more limited on 
Wednesday, but continued cyclonic flow and orographic lifting 
enhancements result in chance PoPs along and northeast of the KY-15 
corridor. Afternoon highs will be slightly cooler than the day 
prior, dipping down into the 50s across the entire forecast area. 
These values are slightly below climatological norms, but not cold 
enough to result in the wintery precipitation that one might expect 
on the backside of a clipper system. A few flakes cannot be ruled 
out atop Black Mountain, but most precipitation that reaches the 
ground on Wednesday will do so in the form of light rain.   

A clearing trend is expected by Wednesday evening as a surface high 
pressure system builds into the Greater Ohio River Valley. These 
clear skies will favor efficient diurnal cooling overnight, yielding 
low temperatures below freezing in the valleys and in the lower half 
of the 30s atop ridges. Combined with any leftover near-surface 
moisture from the early week showers, the clear skies and cool 
temperatures will favor frost formation on Thursday morning. 
Agricultural interests are accordingly encouraged to monitor this 
forecast closely, but the pattern begins to shift on Thursday night. 

Under mostly clear skies, temperatures should recover into the lower 
60s on Thursday afternoon. The surface high pressure system is 
expected to slide eastward as the day progresses, leading to SSW 
return flow overnight. This will be represented on the surface 
analysis map as a warm front, and its associated isentropic lift 
could produce a few showers and storms on Friday morning as the 
boundary lifts northeast. Its passage will mark the establishment of 
a warm sector, and midlevel height rises through the weekend will 
favor daytime highs in at least the mid/upper 70s by the weekend. 
The deterministic NBM data used to populate the forecast grids tends 
to under-do high temperatures during these prolonged southerly to 
southwesterly return flow regimes, but increasing amounts of cloud 
cover could limit the amount of diurnal warming that is actually 
realized. After collaboration with neighboring forecast offices, 
next weekend's highs were not explicitly raised into the 80s quite 
yet. Regardless, the noticeable late-week warming trend will prime 
the atmosphere for renewed precipitation chances as a the next 
synoptic storm system approaches on Sunday. Model spread remains too 
high to discuss timing and hazard details, but there is a signal for 
a prolonged period of southwesterly low/mid-level flow out ahead of 
this system. This moisture return could produce enough instability 
for strong to severe storms across western portions of the forecast 
area, but mesoscale features such as downsloping could mitigate that 
potential. Likewise, the magnitude and evolution of the parent low 
pressure system remains uncertain, and this will greatly affect the 
organizational abilities of any convection that forms on Sunday. We 
will keep a close eye on the evolution of these governing features 
as the latest forecast guidance comes in, and we encourage those 
with outdoor or travel plans on Sunday to stay tuned to future 
forecast updates. For now, expect a warmer and wetter end to the 
long term forecast period, with both high and low temperatures above 
the climatological averages for late March. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2025

The cold front with its showers is moving east through the area
which means the worse aviation conditions will be in place early
with rapid improvement pre-dawn. Some MVFR CIGs and visibilities
accompany this front and trail for an hour or so. Once this
boundary moves on southeast of the terminals they will all
gradually improve to VFR and stay there after 12Z - through the 
rest of the forecast period. Also, with the shower activity, south
to southwesterly winds sustained around 10 to 15 knots with gusts
up to 25 knots will pass eastern Kentucky before slackening off 
for the rest of the overnight generally from the west; however, 
winds are expected to increase out of the west toward 17Z with 
sustained winds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts 20 to 25 knots 
through the afternoon. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF

Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 24, 5:20 AM EDT

---------------
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Nepean's Mark Carney surprise further disrupts the local race

The Liberal leader is vying for a seat in Nepean. And some residents of the riding said that could sway their vote.

Source: Nepean's Mark Carney surprise further disrupts the local race

-----------------------
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BATON ROUGE Mar 22 Climate Report: High: 80 Low: 45 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0"

735 
CDUS44 KLIX 230750
CLIBTR

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS
250 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025

...................................

...THE BATON ROUGE   CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MARCH 22 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1894 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         80   3:24 PM  87    1898  74      6       76        
  MINIMUM         45   5:47 AM  29    1986  52     -7       54        
  AVERAGE         63                        63      0       65     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.00          3.43 1953   0.14  -0.14     0.41     
  MONTH TO DATE    2.65                      3.16  -0.51     7.86     
  SINCE MAR 1      2.65                      3.16  -0.51     7.86     
  SINCE JAN 1      9.31                     13.94  -4.63    18.11     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0.0                                                
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                                                
  SINCE MAR 1      0.0                                                
  SINCE JUL 1      7.6                                                
  SNOW DEPTH      MM                                                  

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        2                         4     -2        0        
  MONTH TO DATE   99                       124    -25       56        
  SINCE MAR 1     99                       124    -25       56        
  SINCE JUL 1   1150                      1446   -296     1109        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         2     -2        0        
  MONTH TO DATE   33                        43    -10       80        
  SINCE MAR 1     33                        43    -10       80        
  SINCE JAN 1     66                        81    -15      133        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    15   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION     S (190)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    22   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SE (140)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.7                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.0                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WAS OBSERVED.                                  


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    93           5:00 AM                                      
 LOWEST     29           3:00 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    61                                                        

..........................................................


THE BATON ROUGE   CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   75        86      1907                      
                                             2017                     
                                             2023                     
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   52        33      1955                      
                                             1986                     
                                             2002                     


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
MARCH 23 2025.........SUNRISE   7:04 AM CDT   SUNSET   7:18 PM CDT     
MARCH 24 2025.........SUNRISE   7:03 AM CDT   SUNSET   7:19 PM CDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

Source: BATON ROUGE Mar 22 Climate Report: High: 80 Low: 45 Precip: 0.0" Snow: 0.0"

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PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 6:50 PM EDT

997 
FXUS61 KPBZ 232250
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
650 PM EDT Sun Mar 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower chances will continue to remain elevated late this
evening into early Monday ahead of a cold front. Drier weather 
and gusty conditions are expected Monday, although afternoon 
showers are possible north of Interstate 80. Generally 
seasonable temperatures continue with several low probability 
shower chances through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES: 

- Precipitation returns later this afternoon, overspreading the
  region ahead of a cold front.
- Rain totals will range from 0.10 to 0.40 inches across the 
  region; the axis of localized higher amounts will likely be 
  south of Pittsburgh. 
- Gusty conditions expected in the wake of the front.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Light rain is currently tracking through eastern Ohio late this
evening. Despite reflectivity returns on the radar over western
Pennsylvania, dry air aloft is causing evaporation and no 
precipitation is reaching the ground. The PIT 12Z sounding 
depicted a sufficient dry layer between 2kft to 15kft that needs
to saturate before light rain occurs. 

The best time frame for accumulating rain is expected between
9pm tonight to 1am tomorrow morning. Probability of rainfall 
totals >= 0.25 inches is elevated (above 60%) for areas south of
I-70, where deeper moisture is noted on GOES-16 water vapor. A 
noted dry slot, that is tracking through northern 
Illinois/Indiana and will eventually reach our region, is 
expected to keep precipitation amounts north of Pittsburgh 
between 0.1 to 0.2 inches. With wet-bulbing, there may be a 
brief period of rain/snow mix near I-80 before dawn.

Between 4am to 6am Monday, rain will likely be focused east of 
Pittsburgh as the cold front advances into eastern Ohio.

In the wake of the cold front, expected gusty conditions
(25-30mph gusts) associated with a tight pressure gradient.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Drier overall Monday, with gusty wind. 
- Monday afternoon showers possible north of I-80.
- Low shower chances Tuesday.
-------------------------------------------------------------------

A surface low will slowly meander across Lake Huron on Monday, 
while the upper trough starts to swing our way across the 
southern Lakes. Precipitation should have largely ended, save 
for perhaps a few lingering showers near the ridges. Low-level 
flow generally remains out of the southwest in most model 
solutions, limiting cold advection. It still appears that 
temperatures will actually be a bit warmer on Monday as compared
to today, given the likely higher level of afternoon sunshine.

The arrival of the upper trough by evening allows flow to veer more 
westerly and brings an increase in moisture mostly north of 
Pittsburgh, allowing for scattered rain and snow showers. Very 
little accumulation is foreseen. Limited moisture penetration 
into the dendritic growth zone and falling inversion heights should 
limit snow rates, and the warm ground will also be a hindrance. 

Deep mixing will allow for efficient transport of wind to the
surface, leading to peak gusts in the 30 to 40 MPH range in the
lowlands. The southwest flow should keep higher gusts to our
east for the most part. Still, cannot rule out the eventual need
for a Wind Advisory in eastern Tucker County. Neighbor
collaboration and uncertainty regarding 850mb flow precluded
issuance at this time. 

The mean trough slowly moves east but continues to impact our 
weather Tuesday, with temperatures a few degrees cooler than Monday. 
Model trends still favor keeping most precipitation south of the 
region Tuesday, although scattered rain and snow showers remain
possible into Tuesday night. Some light accumulation is possible
along the ridges during the nighttime hours.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be a bit cooler as meager cold 
advection ensues.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
 
- Showers end Wednesday.
- Brief dry period under high pressure Wednesday night/Thursday.
- Shower chances return for Friday and the weekend.
- Temperatures remain seasonable through midweek before a likely
  warming trend.
------------------------------------------------------------------

Upper troughing remains in place at the start of this period with 
high confidence.  Model clusters show increasing confidence in the 
axis of the trough moving off of the Atlantic Coast by 00Z Friday, 
albeit with slight variances in speed. Uncertainty then increases 
from there, as there is disagreement among the various ensemble 
members regarding how quickly and strongly 500mb ridging then builds 
back towards the Upper Ohio Valley.

Continued, decreasing chances for rain/snow showers seem 
appropriate for Wednesday in the lingering troughing, before 
drier weather appears likely for Wednesday night/Thursday with 
crossing surface high pressure. Daily precipitation chances then
return for Friday and the weekend, tied to uncertainty with 
shortwaves rotating through the upper flow, although overall, 
precipitation becomes more likely next weekend. Current 
expectation is that most, if not all, of this potential 
precipitation would be in the form of rain as opposed to snow.

While a return to, and then a rise above, seasonal norms is the most 
likely outcome, the uncertainty regarding flow evolution is playing 
havoc with ensemble temperature spreads towards next weekend.  To 
illustrate: at Pittsburgh on Saturday, the spread between the 10th 
percentile max temperature (61 degrees) and the 90th percentile
temperature (85 degrees) reaches 24 degrees on the current NBM 
run.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A swath of generally light rain associated with an approaching
low pressure system will continue to overspread the region
through 05z before exiting east by 12z ahead of the mid-level 
shortwave. Thermal profiles will support rain, but slightly
cooler air and low dewpoints may allow for wet-bulbing of air
temperature at FKL/DUJ to briefly introduce a snow mix shortly
after onset.

Initial restrictions will be tethered to visibility drops in
heavier rain as the system begins top-down moistening of a
previously dry atmosphere. Near to shortly after the passage of
the main precipitation swath, there is high confidence (near
100%) of 6-7 hours of MVFR cigs with localized IFR possible at
FKL/DUJ. Rapid transition of a surface pre-frontal trough while
the upper axis remains to the west means a quick erosion of 
MVFR/IFR cigs between 11z-16z due to strong system dry slotting.
Prior to the late day arrival of the cold front (evident by a NW
wind shift), strong pressure gradients and deeper mixing will 
aid 25 to 35kt southwest wind gusts for area terminals. 


Outlook... 
VFR is favored (90% probability) through mid week as the region
generally sits within the dry slot of a fairly stagnant upper
trough and some influence of surface high pressure to the
southwest. Embedded shortwaves within the upper trough pattern
may initiate low probability precipitation/restriction chances
that favor FKL/DUJ and the higher terrain, but model variability
remains high on these features.

A late week into weekend pattern shift to eastern CONUS ridging
may come with a transition period featuring increasing
precipitation and restriction chances.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan
NEAR TERM...Hefferan
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...CL
AVIATION...Frazier

Source: PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Mar 23, 6:50 PM EDT

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