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Topics - ThreatWebInternal
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31
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:44 AM »
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:42 PM CDT106 FXUS63 KPAH 291942 AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected through Monday. Heavy rainfall, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible.
- A drier trend continues for Independence Day with seasonal highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's.
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Lower heights extend across the northern tier of the US this afternoon with an upper level disturbance to the northwest. A few showers and storms have resulted and will continue into the evening hours. PW's remain very high with values over 2 inches and will result in periods of heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. A few isolated or scattered showers/storms may continue into the night as low level waa remains atop the region. Amplification of a northern stream trough occurs across the Midwest on Monday. This will send a cold front through the region Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Increasing wind fields aloft may lead to a strong to severe risk with any thunderstorm complex with damaging winds the primary hazard. Once again, localized flash flooding will be possible.
We finally see some drier weather behind the front Tuesday. Guidance continues to show the rest of this week dry as upper level ridging builds across the region. Toward the end of the forecast period, another trough moves into the plains and begins to bring low-end PoPs into portions of the area. Temperatures in the upper 80's early to mid week will rise into the low to mid 90's by the end of the week and into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Lower confidence forecast on timing and coverage of convection this afternoon. Cloud cover and earlier rain has slowed destabilization today. Can't rule out SHRA or maybe isolated thunder but don't have more confidence to introduce any higher probs than prob30 at least for now. AMD may become necessary if higher confidence develops. Additional isolated shower or storm activity is possible overnight. A cold front will move in from the northwest late in the TAF period, most likely after 18z but could offer scattered showers or storms toward the end of the TAF period. Winds from the southwest around or less than 5 knots are expected.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AD AVIATION...AD
Source: PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:42 PM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
32
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:44 AM »
LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 71 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing274 CDUS43 KLMK 300025 CLILOU
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 825 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
...................................
...THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 29 2025... VALID AS OF 0825 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ....................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 88 517 PM 87 1 92 MINIMUM 71 518 AM 68 3 80 AVERAGE 80 78 2 86
PRECIPITATION (IN) TODAY 0.00 0.17 -0.17 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 2.40 4.51 -2.11 2.88 SINCE JUN 1 2.40 4.51 -2.11 2.88 SINCE JAN 1 29.08 25.28 3.80 24.79
DEGREE DAYS HEATING TODAY 0 0 0 0 MONTH TO DATE 1 0 1 5 SINCE JUN 1 1 0 1 5 SINCE JUL 1 4032 4146 -114 3674
COOLING TODAY 15 13 2 21 MONTH TO DATE 338 300 38 308 SINCE JUN 1 338 300 38 308 SINCE JAN 1 467 483 -16 509 .......................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 16 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (210) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 22 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION SW (210) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 5.8
SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY. THUNDERSTORM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 94 100 AM LOWEST 57 600 PM AVERAGE 76
..........................................................
THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 87 MM MM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 69 MM MM
SUNRISE AND SUNSET JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE 622 AM EDT SUNSET 910 PM EDT JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE 623 AM EDT SUNSET 910 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
BJS
Source: LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY Jun 29 Climate Report: High: 88 Low: 71 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
34
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:41 AM »
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #554 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE172 AWUS01 KWNH 300633 FFGMPD OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 232 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 300632Z - 301032Z
Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75 inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed since 00Z. Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this morning.
Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow aloft currently. Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that convection has begun to take on more of a training character, focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at 850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs. The convection is embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall. The current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of Bloomington and vicinity.
MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so. Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves across the region. Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant impacts are possible.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846 38858809 39258725
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #554 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
35
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:41 AM »
More 'soft power signals': On heels of King's visit, Prince Edward takes week-long trip to P.E.I., Ontario Prince Edward, King Charles's younger brother, is focusing on a range of issues during his week-long trip to Canada, including support of young Canadians and the military. His visit will also focus on issues that have become a priority for the Crown in Canada and send signals of the soft power the monarchy can try to wield. Source: More 'soft power signals': On heels of King's visit, Prince Edward takes week-long trip to P.E.I., Ontario----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
36
« on: July 01, 2025, 06:16:40 AM »
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 1:14 AM EDT795 FXUS61 KBOX 260514 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 114 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS... Turning cooler Thursday through Saturday, then warming Sunday into early next week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Key Messages:
* Widely scattered thunderstorms wind down with the loss of daytime heating
* Temperatures and dewpoints rapidly fall overnight behind backdoor cold front
Relief from excessive heat and humidity is well on its way as a cold front currently located across portions of central New Hampshire continues to move south. A few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the next few hours. The best chance of this activity will be across portions of central and eastern Massachusetts where the seabreeze boundary will act as a focus for activity. Generally expecting storms to remain below severe limits as MLCAPE values wane behind the front. Falling temperatures and dewpoints will allow the Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of our CWA except the Worcester Hills and coastal areas to expire at 7 pm. Outside of the lingering heat-related statements, the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management has issued an Air Quality Action Day for Ground Level Ozone, that will remain in effect through 11pm EDT this evening. An Air Quality Action day means that Ground Level Ozone concentrations within the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Key Messages:
* Much cooler behind backdoor cold front * Weak upper disturbance and WAA brings widely scattered showers
Temperatures on Thursday will be about 25 to 30 degrees lower than today as southward moving high pressure allows for an easterly flow. Highs will struggle to get out of the upper 60s and lower 70s for much of the region. In terms of precipitation, high-res guidance is advertising a band of showers across much of the region. These showers are due to upper mid-level WAA around the periphery of the backdoor cold front. Not expecting a washout, but low clouds and cooler temps will make for a somewhat gloomy day on Thursday. Cool and cloudy conditions continue Thursday night with lows falling into the upper 50s and lower 60s regionwide.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Messages:
Key Messages...
* Significantly cooler weather continues Friday and into the weekend before temps return to the upper 80s and low 90s early next week.
* Daily chances of rain and some thunderstorms possible each day through Sunday, drier Monday, then more unsettled weather possible around Tuesday.
Relief from the heat continues Friday into the weekend with a flattening of the ridge and surface high pressure expanding south from Canada. Cool northeast/onshore flow will be directed off the Atlantic over southern New England. This results in high temperatures about 30 degrees colder than we experienced earlier in the week, below normal for late June. Highs on Friday and Saturday will remain in the low to mid 70s, helped by plenty of cloud cover. Things begin to change by Sunday and beyond as a trough of low pressure approaches, turning winds back to the southwest. This advects warmer air north as highs return to the mid to upper 80s Mon- Wed. At this point ensembles indicate only a very slight (<20%) chance of seeing 90s again. Stay tuned.
As for rain chances, we'll see periods of wet weather return to the forecast Friday and through the weekend. Flow will be quasi-zonal , lacking any big significant storm systems. Moreso we'll see several weak disturbances moving through between Thursday and early next week. The best chance of seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain in any 24 hour period according to ensemble guidance is Saturday (of course) with both the EPS and GEFS showing a 70%+ chance, greatest further north, less to the south. There remains a decent discrepancy in the placement of the front Saturday which will determine how wet it may be, but should see increasing confidence over the next 24 hours. Brief ridging follows Monday which keeps things dry before another more robust shortwave toward Tuesday brings renewed rain and thunderstorm chances. &&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z: High Confidence.
VFR. Shower chances are highest across the southern coastal waters. Wind shifts to the northeast, less than 10 knots across the interior and 10 to 15 knots across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Today: Moderate Confidence.
VFR. Periods of showers are possible, leading to MVFR conditions though confidence is lower in exact location and timing. Northeast to east winds around 10 knots. localized gusts along the east coast of MA to 18-20 knots.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Monday: Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
&&
.MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Today and Thursday: High Confidence.
Weak cold front approaches from the north, increasing clouds and a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Northern waters have northerly winds while the southerly waters have a southerly wind. Wind becomes northeast for all waters Wednesday night and increase to 10 to 15 knots. Seas are less than 2 feet. Cold front settles south of the southern outer waters with east/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and gusting to 20 knots. Seas building from the south 3 to 4 feet. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FT NEAR TERM...FT SHORT TERM...FT LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...Dooley MARINE...FT
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 26, 1:14 AM EDT---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
37
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:14:31 AM »
6 SW Biloxi [Gmz532 Co, MS] Broadcast Media reports Waterspout at 9:27 AM CDT -- A video showed two waterspouts in the Mississippi Sound simultaneously just south of Biloxi.589 NWUS54 KLIX 271627 LSRLIX
Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1127 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..
0927 AM Waterspout 6 SW Biloxi 30.34N 88.97W 06/27/2025 GMZ532 MS Broadcast Media
A video showed two waterspouts in the Mississippi Sound simultaneously just south of Biloxi.
&&
$$
MEFFER
Source: 6 SW Biloxi [Gmz532 Co, MS] Broadcast Media reports Waterspout at 9:27 AM CDT -- A video showed two waterspouts in the Mississippi Sound simultaneously just south of Biloxi.--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
38
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:14:30 AM »
MOB issues Flood Advisory for Okaloosa, Santa Rosa [FL] till Jun 28, 8:45 AM CDT587 WGUS84 KMOB 281145 FLSMOB
Flood Advisory National Weather Service Mobile AL 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
FLC091-113-281345- /O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0054.250628T1145Z-250628T1345Z/ /00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Okaloosa FL-Santa Rosa FL- 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.
* WHERE...A portion of northwest Florida, including the following counties, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa.
* WHEN...Until 845 AM CDT.
* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Ponding of water in urban areas is imminent.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - At 640 AM CDT, Doppler radar and nearby rain gauges indicated heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is expected to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen in a very short period of time. - Some locations that will experience flooding include... Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB, Valparaiso, Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Navarre, Shalimar, Cinco Bayou, Navarre Beach, Longwood, Eglin Village, Wynnehaven Beach, Postil, Harper, Seminole and Holley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3056 8666 3059 8639 3038 8639 3039 8663 3039 8674 3037 8692 3037 8694 3044 8695 3052 8697
$$
Source: MOB issues Flood Advisory for Okaloosa, Santa Rosa [FL] till Jun 28, 8:45 AM CDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
39
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:14:30 AM »
DUBOIS PA Jun 28 Climate Report: High: 82 Low: 66 Precip: 0.09" Snow: Missing566 CDUS41 KPBZ 290622 CLIDUJ
CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 222 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025
...................................
...THE DUBOIS PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 28 2025...
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1960 TO 2025
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 82 1156 AM 90 1971 78 4 81 MINIMUM 66 515 AM 46 1970 58 8 53 AVERAGE 74 68 6 67
PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 0.09 MM MM 0.14 -0.05 0.00 MONTH TO DATE 5.63 4.38 1.25 2.39 SINCE JUN 1 5.63 4.38 1.25 2.39 SINCE JAN 1 21.20 20.36 0.84 21.72
DEGREE DAYS HEATING YESTERDAY 0 1 -1 0 MONTH TO DATE 45 71 -26 35 SINCE JUN 1 45 71 -26 35 SINCE JUL 1 5691 6672 -981 5080
COOLING YESTERDAY 9 4 5 2 MONTH TO DATE 126 73 53 151 SINCE JUN 1 126 73 53 151 SINCE JAN 1 153 105 48 211 ...................................................................
WIND (MPH) HIGHEST WIND SPEED 17 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION SW (240) HIGHEST GUST SPEED 23 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION W (270) AVERAGE WIND SPEED 6.8
SKY COVER POSSIBLE SUNSHINE MM AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5
WEATHER CONDITIONS THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORM RAIN LIGHT RAIN FOG
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT) HIGHEST 100 700 PM LOWEST 69 1200 PM AVERAGE 85
..........................................................
THE DUBOIS PA CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY NORMAL RECORD YEAR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 78 91 2021 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 58 48 1989
SUNRISE AND SUNSET JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE 546 AM EDT SUNSET 852 PM EDT JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE 546 AM EDT SUNSET 852 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS. R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED. MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING. T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: DUBOIS PA Jun 28 Climate Report: High: 82 Low: 66 Precip: 0.09" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
42
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:14:28 AM »
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:53 PM EDT341 FXUS63 KIND 291853 AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain/storm chances persist through Monday night with the greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening hours
- Localized flooding is the primary threat through Monday night, but isolated strong wind gusts are also possible Monday afternoon and evening
- Drier and slightly cooler weather expected towards the middle of this week before more humid conditions return Friday into next weekend
&&
.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday Night)... Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Yet another afternoon with scattered convection over the region with a moist and unstable airmass in place. 18Z temperatures are lower than the last several days courtesy of the convection and plentiful cloud coverage...running generally in the low to mid 80s.
Unsettled weather will continue through Monday as a series of upper level waves track through the Ohio Valley followed by a cold front Monday night. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will persist as a result...with highest coverage expected Monday afternoon and evening.
Showers and storms are pockmarked across the forecast area this afternoon and will likely increase in coverage over the next few hours as instability levels peak. The KIND ACARS sounding shows poor lapse rates present through the column...meaning stronger winds from collapsing downdrafts are likely to be less of a concern into the evening. The greatest impact remains the potential for localized flooding from slow moving convection producing torrential downpours. PWATs are already near 2 inches and are likely to tick up further into the evening. Best potential for storms remains across the southern half of the forecast area where deepest moisture resides but convection really could pop up anywhere across central Indiana.
The loss of diurnal heating this evening should lead to convective coverage diminishing but that respite is expected to be brief and last only into the early overnight. The first of the series of upper level waves associated with a broader trough aloft will arrive during the predawn hours with scattered convection increasing yet again prior to daybreak. This will parlay into Monday as the combination of the forcing aloft with an approaching cold front will interact with the moist unstable airmass across the Ohio Valley for numerous to widespread convection peaking during the afternoon and evening.
The risk for a few storms producing damaging winds is greater by late day with the infusion of slightly better BL shear present immediately ahead of the upper trough axis but an overall skinny and elongated CAPE profile with unidirectional shear profiles is supportive of a generally messy multicellular convective mode for the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain and localized flooding will remain primary concerns as well. Showers and storms will continue into Monday night ahead of the frontal boundary with rain ending from west to east overnight as the front sweeps off to the east.
Temps...lows tonight will fall mainly into the lower 70s. Highs are expected in the mid 80s on Monday. As cooler air advects into the region behind the frontal passage Monday night...lows will drop into the mid and upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Unsettled weather for the early part of this week will shift east Tuesday morning as a drier and slightly cooler airmass builds in courtesy of broad surface high pressure and drier northwest flow aloft. Upper level ridging will return by late next week with a likely return to isolated to scattered diurnal convection Friday into the weekend as a hotter and more humid airmass reestablishes across the Ohio Valley.
Tuesday through Thursday..
Other than a few lingering showers Tuesday morning...mostly quiet weather conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure settles across the region. Dewpoints will finally fall back into the lower and middle 60s and perhaps even down into the upper 50s in northern portions of the forecast area for midweek...a refreshing respite from the oppressive air of the last week or so. While largely dry conditions are expected...a few showers and storms are possible focused mainly across northern counties by Thursday afternoon as a weak front drifts into the lower Great Lakes. Highs will mainly reside in the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday before beginning to rise on Thursday.
Friday through Sunday...
The arrival of ridging aloft coinciding with a weakening of the surface high will enable deeper moisture to advect back into the Ohio Valley for late week with growing confidence in higher dewpoint air at or above 70 degrees making a return for Independence Day into next weekend. Instability will increase in response with isolated to scattered pulse intensity...short lived and slow moving convection developing during the afternoon and evening ...mainly Saturday and Sunday. May see an increase in overall convective coverage late next weekend into early next week with signals in the ensembles for a cold front to approach the region from the northwest. Highs will rise back into the lower 90s for next weekend with heat indices again approaching 100 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Impacts:
- Scattered showers and storms through the afternoon, then more numerous coverage late tonight into Monday - Patchy fog possible near daybreak Monday - MVFR ceilings at times early this afternoon then again on Monday
Discussion:
Moist and unstable airmass across the region will again aid in scattered convective development through the afternoon...especially across the southern half of central Indiana. Brief restrictions will be possible with any heavier shower or storm. Ongoing pockets of MVFR stratocu will lift to VFR levels over the next few hours as well.
There may be a brief lull in convection this evening as diurnal heating is lost but a series of weak upper level waves set to move through the Ohio Valley overnight and into Monday will bring additional convection to central Indiana likely to be more widespread in coverage on Monday.
MVFR ceilings are again a possibility in the predawn hours through the first half of Monday. Winds will generally be light and southerly through much of the forecast period...veering to southwest on Monday and increasing closer to 10kts.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Ryan AVIATION...Ryan
Source: IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:53 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
43
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:14:27 AM »
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #547 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE233 AWUS01 KWNH 290802 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-291400-
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Areas affected...eastern Kansas into central and south-central Missouri
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 290800Z - 291400Z
Summary...A few areas of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage across the discussion area. Areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates are expected through at least 14Z/9a CDT this morning, which could prompt flash flooding.
Discussion...Scattered convection was developing along an axis from east-central Kansas (near Emporia eastward to near Sedalia and southeastward to the MO/AR border near Cherokee Village. The storms were being forced by ascent on the nose of stronger 850mb flow located across Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks, with speed convergence providing lift amid a marginally unstable (1000 J/kg MUCAPE) but plenty moist (1.5+ inch PW) environment. The storms are developing amid weak steering flow aloft, resulting in slow movement and redevelopment within the axis of best low-level convergence. The slow movement was already enabling spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates to materialize in central Missouri, which may result in isolated excessive runoff in the near term despite values falling short of hourly FFG.
Models/observations suggest that persistent low-level convergence across the discussion area will continue to promote redevelopment and expansion of convection through the early morning hours. An attendant increase in rainfall rates (into the 1.5 inch/hr range in spots) is also expected. These rain rates will threaten FFG thresholds and promote a risk of flash flooding especially in urban and sensitive locales through 14Z/9a CDT this morning.
Cook
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 39749527 39699367 38599109 37209056 36509081 36309167 36869256 38309426 38429556 39089600
Source: Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #547 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
44
« on: July 01, 2025, 12:14:27 AM »
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:39 PM EDT469 FXUS63 KLMK 291839 AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 239 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.
* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.
* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but most of the day will be dry.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate this evening as the sun sets.
Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog development especially in protected valley areas.
Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain. Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily weaken overnight.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Tuesday - Thursday...
The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible. Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time. High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.
Independence Day - Next Weekend...
An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region and precip chances increase.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Isolated showers are beginning to develop over the western portion of the region. These showers will continue to increase in coverage to widely scattered showers and storms. A storm would be capable of gusty winds and heavy rain. Diurnal convection will begin to dissipate with sunset. The first half of the overnight will remain dry with light southerly winds. The latter half of the night will feature a cluster of showers and storms moving in and dissipating as it continues east across the region. This cluster of showers would help to lower CIGs in the morning. After sunrise, CIGs will begin to lift and winds will pick up out of the southwest. Another round of showers and storms (some strong) is expected to develop in the afternoon on Monday and last through the evening.
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.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...None. IN...None.
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SHORT TERM...SRW LONG TERM...SRW AVIATION...SRW
Source: LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 29, 2:39 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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