ThreatWeb

274 
CDUS43 KLMK 300025
CLILOU

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
825 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2025

...................................

...THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 29 2025...
VALID AS OF 0825 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                  
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE  FROM      YEAR                 
                                      NORMAL                       
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 TODAY                                                               
  MAXIMUM         88    517 PM  87      1       92                   
  MINIMUM         71    518 AM  68      3       80                   
  AVERAGE         80            78      2       86                 

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  TODAY            0.00          0.17  -0.17     0.00                 
  MONTH TO DATE    2.40          4.51  -2.11     2.88                 
  SINCE JUN 1      2.40          4.51  -2.11     2.88                 
  SINCE JAN 1     29.08         25.28   3.80    24.79                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  TODAY            0             0      0        0                    
  MONTH TO DATE    1             0      1        5                    
  SINCE JUN 1      1             0      1        5                    
  SINCE JUL 1   4032          4146   -114     3674                    

 COOLING                                                              
  TODAY           15            13      2       21                    
  MONTH TO DATE  338           300     38      308                    
  SINCE JUN 1    338           300     38      308                    
  SINCE JAN 1    467           483    -16      509                    
.......................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    16   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    SW (210)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    22   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    SW (210)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     5.8                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.3                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.                             
  THUNDERSTORM                                                        


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    94           100 AM                                      
 LOWEST     57           600 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    76                                                        

..........................................................


THE LOUISVILLE BOWMAN KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   87        MM        MM                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   69        MM        MM                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
JUNE 29 2025..........SUNRISE   622 AM EDT   SUNSET   910 PM EDT     
JUNE 30 2025..........SUNRISE   623 AM EDT   SUNSET   910 PM EDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.

$$

BJS

172 
AWUS01 KWNH 300633
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-301032-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

Areas affected...central/southern indiana and vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300632Z - 301032Z

Summary...A loosely organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms
were repeating over southern Indiana near Bloomington, where 1.75
inch/hr rain rates and 5-7 inch rainfall totals have been observed
since 00Z.  Flash flooding is likely in this area through 10Z this
morning.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern
Indiana are embedded in broad, modest west-southwesterly flow
aloft currently.  Recent radar mosaic imagery indicates that
convection has begun to take on more of a training character,
focusing on a subtle confluence axis evident at the surface and at
850mb via SPC mesoanalyses and surface obs.  The convection is
embedded in 2 inch PW values and around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 
Meanwhile, upstream convection has deepened across far
southeastern Illinois that should eventually repeat into areas of
southern Indiana that have already received heavy rainfall.  The
current scenario suggests that additional 2-5 inch rainfall totals
area possible in some parts of the discussion area near/south of
Bloomington and vicinity.

MRMS Flash responses are in moderate levels across the area that
has received heavier rainfall over the past 3-6 hours or so. 
Additionally, and three-hourly FFG thresholds are in the 2 inch
range and will likely be exceeded at times as convection moves
across the region.  Flash flooding is likely, and depending on the
persistence of this band through/beyond 10Z, local significant
impacts are possible.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   39898503 39348482 38778508 38378621 38048846 
            38858809 39258725

795 
FXUS61 KBOX 260514
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
114 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Turning cooler Thursday through Saturday, then warming Sunday 
into early next week, with daily chances of showers and 
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages: 


* Widely scattered thunderstorms wind down with the loss of daytime 
  heating

* Temperatures and dewpoints rapidly fall overnight behind backdoor 
  cold front 

Relief from excessive heat and humidity is well on its way as a cold 
front currently located across portions of central New Hampshire 
continues to move south. A few widely scattered showers and 
thunderstorms will continue over the next few hours. The best chance 
of this activity will be across portions of central and eastern 
Massachusetts where the seabreeze boundary will act as a focus for 
activity. Generally expecting storms to remain below severe limits 
as MLCAPE values wane behind the front. Falling temperatures and 
dewpoints will allow the Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of 
our CWA except the Worcester Hills and coastal areas to expire 
at 7 pm. Outside of the lingering heat-related statements, the 
Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management has issued 
an Air Quality Action Day for Ground Level Ozone, that will 
remain in effect through 11pm EDT this evening. An Air Quality 
Action day means that Ground Level Ozone concentrations within 
the region may approach or exceed unhealthy standards.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Key Messages: 

* Much cooler behind backdoor cold front
* Weak upper disturbance and WAA brings widely scattered showers

Temperatures on Thursday will be about 25 to 30 degrees lower than 
today as southward moving high pressure allows for an easterly flow. 
Highs will struggle to get out of the upper 60s and lower 70s for 
much of the region. In terms of precipitation, high-res guidance is 
advertising a band of showers across much of the region. These 
showers are due to upper mid-level WAA around the periphery of the 
backdoor cold front. Not expecting a washout, but low clouds and 
cooler temps will make for a somewhat gloomy day on Thursday. Cool 
and cloudy conditions continue Thursday night with lows falling into 
the upper 50s and lower 60s regionwide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Messages: 

Key Messages...

* Significantly cooler weather continues Friday and into the weekend 
  before temps return to the upper 80s and low 90s early next week. 

* Daily chances of rain and some thunderstorms possible each day 
  through Sunday, drier Monday, then more unsettled weather 
  possible around Tuesday.  

Relief from the heat continues Friday into the weekend with a 
flattening of the ridge and surface high pressure expanding south 
from Canada. Cool northeast/onshore flow will be directed off the 
Atlantic over southern New England. This results in high 
temperatures about 30 degrees colder than we experienced earlier in 
the week, below normal for late June. Highs on Friday and Saturday 
will remain in the low to mid 70s, helped by plenty of cloud cover. 
Things begin to change by Sunday and beyond as a trough of low 
pressure approaches, turning winds back to the southwest. This 
advects warmer air north as highs return to the mid to upper 80s Mon-
Wed. At this point ensembles indicate only a very slight (<20%) 
chance of seeing 90s again. Stay tuned.  

As for rain chances, we'll see periods of wet weather return to the 
forecast Friday and through the weekend. Flow will be quasi-zonal , 
lacking any big significant storm systems. Moreso we'll see several 
weak disturbances moving through between Thursday and early next 
week. The best chance of seeing at least a tenth of an inch of rain 
in any 24 hour period according to ensemble guidance is Saturday (of 
course) with both the EPS and GEFS showing a 70%+ chance, greatest 
further north, less to the south. There remains a decent
discrepancy in the placement of the front Saturday which will 
determine how wet it may be, but should see increasing 
confidence over the next 24 hours. Brief ridging follows Monday 
which keeps things dry before another more robust shortwave 
toward Tuesday brings renewed rain and thunderstorm chances. &&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z: High Confidence. 

VFR. Shower chances are highest across the southern coastal
waters. Wind shifts to the northeast, less than 10 knots across
the interior and 10 to 15 knots across eastern Massachusetts and
Rhode Island. 

Today: Moderate Confidence. 

VFR. Periods of showers are possible, leading to MVFR 
conditions though confidence is lower in exact location and 
timing. Northeast to east winds around 10 knots. localized gusts
along the east coast of MA to 18-20 knots. 

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.  

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. 

Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/... 

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA,
chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. 

Monday: Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Medium - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today and Thursday: High Confidence. 

Weak cold front approaches from the north, increasing clouds and a 
few pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Northern waters have northerly 
winds while the southerly waters have a southerly wind. Wind becomes 
northeast for all waters Wednesday night and increase to 10 to 15 
knots. Seas are less than 2 feet. Cold front settles south of the 
southern outer waters with east/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots and 
gusting to 20 knots. Seas building from the south 3 to 4 feet. 
Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers. 

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers. 

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance
of rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. 

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. 

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. 

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FT
NEAR TERM...FT
SHORT TERM...FT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...Dooley
MARINE...FT

587 
WGUS84 KMOB 281145
FLSMOB

Flood Advisory
National Weather Service Mobile AL
645 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

FLC091-113-281345-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0054.250628T1145Z-250628T1345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Okaloosa FL-Santa Rosa FL-
645 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025

...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of northwest Florida, including the following 
  counties, Okaloosa and Santa Rosa.

* WHEN...Until 845 AM CDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas. 
  Ponding of water in urban areas is imminent.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 640 AM CDT, Doppler radar and nearby rain gauges indicated
    heavy rain due to thunderstorms. Minor flooding is expected
    to begin shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches
    of rain have fallen in a very short period of time.
  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Wright, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Destin, Eglin AFB,
    Valparaiso, Mary Esther, Ocean City, Lake Lorraine, Navarre,
    Shalimar, Cinco Bayou, Navarre Beach, Longwood, Eglin
    Village, Wynnehaven Beach, Postil, Harper, Seminole and
    Holley.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3056 8666 3059 8639 3038 8639 3039 8663
      3039 8674 3037 8692 3037 8694 3044 8695
      3052 8697


$$

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

341 
FXUS63 KIND 291853
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain/storm chances persist through Monday night with the
  greatest coverage during the afternoon and evening hours

- Localized flooding is the primary threat through Monday night, 
  but isolated strong wind gusts are also possible Monday 
  afternoon and evening

- Drier and slightly cooler weather expected towards the middle of this 
  week before more humid conditions return Friday into next weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM (This Evening through Monday Night)... 
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Yet another afternoon with scattered convection over the region with 
a moist and unstable airmass in place. 18Z temperatures are lower 
than the last several days courtesy of the convection and plentiful 
cloud coverage...running generally in the low to mid 80s.

Unsettled weather will continue through Monday as a series of upper 
level waves track through the Ohio Valley followed by a cold front 
Monday night. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will persist as a 
result...with highest coverage expected Monday afternoon and 
evening.

Showers and storms are pockmarked across the forecast area this 
afternoon and will likely increase in coverage over the next few 
hours as instability levels peak. The KIND ACARS sounding shows poor 
lapse rates present through the column...meaning stronger winds from 
collapsing downdrafts are likely to be less of a concern into the 
evening. The greatest impact remains the potential for localized 
flooding from slow moving convection producing torrential downpours. 
PWATs are already near 2 inches and are likely to tick up further 
into the evening. Best potential for storms remains across the 
southern half of the forecast area where deepest moisture resides 
but convection really could pop up anywhere across central Indiana. 

The loss of diurnal heating this evening should lead to convective 
coverage diminishing but that respite is expected to be brief and 
last only into the early overnight. The first of the series of upper 
level waves associated with a broader trough aloft will arrive 
during the predawn hours with scattered convection increasing yet 
again prior to daybreak. This will parlay into Monday as the 
combination of the forcing aloft with an approaching cold front will 
interact with the moist unstable airmass across the Ohio Valley for 
numerous to widespread convection peaking during the afternoon and 
evening. 

The risk for a few storms producing damaging winds is greater by 
late day with the infusion of slightly better BL shear present 
immediately ahead of the upper trough axis but an overall skinny and 
elongated CAPE profile with unidirectional shear profiles is 
supportive of a generally messy multicellular convective mode for 
the afternoon and evening. Heavy rain and localized flooding will 
remain primary concerns as well. Showers and storms will continue 
into Monday night ahead of the frontal boundary with rain ending 
from west to east overnight as the front sweeps off to the east.

Temps...lows tonight will fall mainly into the lower 70s. Highs are 
expected in the mid 80s on Monday. As cooler air advects into the 
region behind the frontal passage Monday night...lows will drop into 
the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... 
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Unsettled weather for the early part of this week will shift 
east Tuesday morning as a drier and slightly cooler airmass builds 
in courtesy of broad surface high pressure and drier northwest flow 
aloft. Upper level ridging will return by late next week with a 
likely return to isolated to scattered diurnal convection Friday 
into the weekend as a hotter and more humid airmass reestablishes 
across the Ohio Valley.

Tuesday through Thursday.. 

Other than a few lingering showers Tuesday morning...mostly quiet 
weather conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday as high 
pressure settles across the region. Dewpoints will finally fall back 
into the lower and middle 60s and perhaps even down into the upper 
50s in northern portions of the forecast area for midweek...a 
refreshing respite from the oppressive air of the last week or so. 
While largely dry conditions are expected...a few showers and storms 
are possible focused mainly across northern counties by Thursday 
afternoon as a weak front drifts into the lower Great Lakes. Highs 
will mainly reside in the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday 
before beginning to rise on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...

The arrival of ridging aloft coinciding with a weakening of the 
surface high will enable deeper moisture to advect back into the 
Ohio Valley for late week with growing confidence in higher dewpoint 
air at or above 70 degrees making a return for Independence Day into 
next weekend. Instability will increase in response with isolated to 
scattered pulse intensity...short lived and slow moving convection 
developing during the afternoon and evening ...mainly Saturday and 
Sunday. May see an increase in overall convective coverage late next 
weekend into early next week with signals in the ensembles for a 
cold front to approach the region from the northwest. Highs will 
rise back into the lower 90s for next weekend with heat indices 
again approaching 100 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms through the afternoon, then more 
  numerous coverage late tonight into Monday
- Patchy fog possible near daybreak Monday
- MVFR ceilings at times early this afternoon then again on Monday

Discussion:  

Moist and unstable airmass across the region will again aid in 
scattered convective development through the afternoon...especially 
across the southern half of central Indiana. Brief restrictions will 
be possible with any heavier shower or storm. Ongoing pockets of 
MVFR stratocu will lift to VFR levels over the next few hours as 
well.

There may be a brief lull in convection this evening as diurnal 
heating is lost but a series of weak upper level waves set to move 
through the Ohio Valley overnight and into Monday will bring 
additional convection to central Indiana likely to be more 
widespread in coverage on Monday. 

MVFR ceilings are again a possibility in the predawn hours through 
the first half of Monday. Winds will generally be light and 
southerly through much of the forecast period...veering to southwest 
on Monday and increasing closer to 10kts.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. 

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan

469 
FXUS63 KLMK 291839
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
239 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms today and Monday.

* Less humid conditions arrive Wednesday and Thursday.

* Isolated showers and storms are possible for Independence Day, but 
  most of the day will be dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

This afternoon...Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s so far 
and getting closer to convective temperatures. A very moist and 
unstable environment will allow for scattered showers and storms to 
develop this afternoon. These diurnal storms will begin to dissipate 
this evening as the sun sets. 

Tonight... Most of tonight will remain dry with broken skies. Light 
southerly winds and recent precip may lead to some light, patchy fog 
development especially in protected valley areas.

Monday and Monday Night... A trough will push through the Ohio 
Valley bringing a cold front towards the region. This trough will 
increase shear (although still weak) and bring some better forcing 
to a present tropical airmass. Some CAMs want to bring a cluster of 
showers and storms through in the early morning. These storms will 
likely dissipate as they move east over the region. Mid morning 
through early afternoon will remain dry with scattered skies. High 
temperatures are expected to be in the mid-upper 80s. Scattered 
showers and storms will then develop in the afternoon and evening as 
the cold front approaches the region. These storms will have access 
to 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE, and slightly better lapse rates 
compared to the previous few days. These conditions will allow for 
storms (a few strong storms) to develop in the afternoon ahead of 
the cold front. Storms will last through the evening and into the 
first part of Monday night. Main threat is pulse cells, wet 
microbursts, gusty to damaging winds, lightning, and heavy rain. 
Storms will outrun the better forcing along the front and 
instability will wane with sunset, allowing storms to steadily 
weaken overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday - Thursday... 

The cold front will push through the region on Tuesday bringing 
lower dew points and more comfortable conditions to the region mid 
week. Along the cold front scattered showers will be possible.
Surface high pressure will keep conditions dry during this time. 
High temperatures will remain near normal in the mid to upper 80s.

Independence Day - Next Weekend...

An upper trough will swing over the northern Ohio Valley late week 
bringing an isolated to scattered chance of showers and storms over 
the northern half of the region on Friday. Brief ridging and high 
pressure will move over the region on Saturday into Sunday, keeping 
conditions dry and warm with temperatures in the low 90s. By late 
Sunday and into early next week, ridging pushes east of the region 
and precip chances increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Isolated showers are beginning to develop over the western portion 
of the region. These showers will continue to increase in coverage 
to widely scattered showers and storms. A storm would be capable of 
gusty winds and heavy rain. Diurnal convection will begin to 
dissipate with sunset. The first half of the overnight will remain 
dry with light southerly winds. The latter half of the night will 
feature a cluster of showers and storms moving in and dissipating as 
it continues east across the region. This cluster of showers would 
help to lower CIGs in the morning. After sunrise, CIGs will begin to 
lift and winds will pick up out of the southwest. Another round of 
showers and storms (some strong) is expected to develop in the 
afternoon on Monday and last through the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRW
LONG TERM...SRW
AVIATION...SRW