ThreatWeb

586 
WGUS54 KLIX 171909
FFWLIX
LAC103-172115-
/O.NEW.KLIX.FF.W.0056.240617T1909Z-240617T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
209 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  South Central St. Tammany Parish in southeastern Louisiana...

* Until 415 PM CDT.

* At 209 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Slidell and Pearl River.

This includes the following Interstates...
	Interstate 10 in Louisiana between mile markers 263 and 269.
	Interstate 12 between mile markers 81 and 84.
	Interstate 59 in Louisiana between mile markers 1 and 2.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3023 8983 3035 8981 3034 8970 3030 8971
      3022 8973 3023 8978

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

HRL

886 
WWUS71 KPBZ 202212
NPWPBZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
612 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

PAZ014-020-021-029-073-075-211000-
/O.CON.KPBZ.EH.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240623T0000Z/
Butler-Beaver-Allegheny-Washington-Westmoreland-Fayette-
Including the cities of Monessen, Pittsburgh Metro Area,
Greensburg, Butler, Uniontown, Beaver Falls, Canonsburg, New
Kensington, Lower Burrell, Aliquippa, Latrobe, Ambridge, Monaca,
Murrysville, and Washington
612 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT 
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Prolonged dangerous hot conditions are likely. Heat index 
  values up to 110 degrees are expected during the day. Little 
  relief will be observed at night with temperatures ranging from 70 
  to 75 degrees.

* WHERE...Beaver, Fayette, Washington, Allegheny, Butler, and 
  Westmoreland Counties.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly during 
  extreme heat and high humidity events.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of 
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Do not leave young children and pets in unattended vehicles. Car 
interiors will reach lethal temperatures in a matter of minutes.

Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose 
fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning 
or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and 
heat stroke.

Power outages could occur due to a prolonged period of heat. 

Stay cool, stay hydrated, stay informed.

&&

$$

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013-015-016-022-031-
074-076>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>511-211000-
/O.CON.KPBZ.HT.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240623T0000Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Armstrong-Greene-Higher Elevations
of Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana-Higher
Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-
Monongalia-Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-
Preston-
Including the cities of Fairmont, New Philadelphia, Cadiz,
Ohiopyle, Hermitage, Wheeling, Follansbee, Zanesville, East
Liverpool, Kingwood, Salem, Tionesta, Oil City, Waynesburg,
Coopers Rock, Ford City, Wellsburg, Morgantown, Champion,
Indiana, Grove City, Sharon, New Martinsville, Bruceton Mills,
Clarion, New Castle, Ligonier, Donegal, Woodsfield, Caldwell,
Franklin, Ellwood City, Steubenville, Moundsville, Brookville,
Cambridge, St. Clairsville, Weirton, Dover, Punxsutawney,
Coshocton, Malvern, Martins Ferry, Columbiana, Kittanning,
Armagh, and Carrollton
612 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

...HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heat index values ranging from 100 to 105 degrees during 
  the day.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio, northwest, southwest, and 
  western Pennsylvania, and northern and the northern panhandle of 
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat 
  illnesses.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of 
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

Take extra precautions when outside. Wear lightweight and loose 
fitting clothing. Try to limit strenuous activities to early morning 
or evening. Take action when you see symptoms of heat exhaustion and 
heat stroke.

To reduce risk during outdoor work, the Occupational Safety and 
Health Administration recommends scheduling frequent rest breaks in 
shaded or air conditioned environments. Anyone overcome by heat 
should be moved to a cool and shaded location. Heat stroke is an 
emergency! Call 9 1 1.

&&

$$

Milcarek

154 
WUUS01 KWNS 202002
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2024

VALID TIME 202000Z - 211200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   43370244 42490180 41360248 40790338 40770404 41040524
       41640530 42740541 43250435 43370244
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   43446773 41717057 41477436 41287684 41228144 41228347
       41418437 42748587 43538561 43118137 43078067 43937722
       44827187 45136873 44916777 43446773
0.05   37021143 39630886 42350683 44060329 44470087 43769724
       42849689 41899757 40470204 39600342 37710466 36880574
       36220681 34920930 35591091 37021143
0.05   47730641 47580494 46600474 46210543 46250955 46941175
       47771150 47950944 47730641
0.15   41840029 40820219 40140379 40230519 42750540 43240432
       43380243 43250114 42860004 41840029
SIGN   41150404 41520493 41940509 42400497 42600414 42510335
       41990290 41200330 41150404
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   36871199 39420949 42260727 44060330 44450088 44509992
       44349579 44059444 43269423 42699473 42219630 40450208
       39600340 37710466 36880575 36090698 35240869 34840968
       35541139 36871199
0.05   45747104 45736889 45876674 99999999 42566899 41727056
       41247665 40538005 40708023 41228144 41228339 41438436
       42748588 43528562 43138161
0.15   40810223 40140379 40230519 42760540 43240433 44059957
       43769835 42919819 42159871 40810223
0.15   45607125 45477003 44836884 44216808 43446857 42077086
       42407309 43887688
0.15   37430998 38900759 38720674 38100627 37440629 36010862
       36000957 36421000 37430998
0.15   42018249 41878351 42558511 43038556 43218531 42518205
SIGN   42930405 42990265 42380169 41620196 41220314 41430429
       42230473 42680452 42930405
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   40220518 42740540 43240430 44049964 43789841 42899819
       42159871 40810223 40140379 40220518
SLGT   42766970 42047083 42417314 43107494 43877690 99999999
       45597128 45447000 44836879 44216808 43446857
SLGT   37420629 36010864 36000958 36431000 37440999 38910760
       38730675 38100627 37420629
SLGT   42028250 41878354 42568512 43038557 43218532 42508205
MRGL   47771150 47950944 47580494 46600474 46210543 46250955
       46941175 47771150
MRGL   42356939 41717057 41247665 40517997 41228144 41228339
       41438436 42748587 43538562 43128143 99999999 45727098
       45736915 45816700
MRGL   39420949 42260727 44060330 44470087 44509992 44349579
       44059444 43269423 42699473 40450208 39600340 37710466
       36880575 36090698 34920930 34960939 34840968 35541139
       36871199 39420949
TSTM   41426945 41167278 40847670 40167834 38887946 38298004
       38358121 38428223 38258358 38738481 39488565 40178749
       40088951 39469191 39029445 38839620 39519825 39979912
       40030066 39560177 37840212 35910246 34860083 34409891
       34619779 35829618 35809516 35099446 34199444 33709547
       33779641 33289793 32179867 31139694 30799437 31069154
       30349028 30098858 31728798 31558599 30778445 30648339
       30838277 31018189 31678165 32568086 33767938 34687766
       34457494 99999999 45857133 46806646 99999999 50539409
       48360066 47150121 46749766 46419465 45619218 44109025
       44158883 44738758 44558530 44588225 45057901 99999999
       30760674 31490670 32100695 32330770 32220854 31730932
       30780977 99999999 31121189 35601353 37131389 38801288
       41661009 43150991 43831037 45511047 46531136 47191304
       47371559 47321827 47832101 48202165 50412370

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW
FCL DGW 65 ENE DGW 25 NW 9V9 20 W MHE 40 NE ONL 20 S ONL 40 WNW IML
30 W AKO 20 SSW FCL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE
PSM 25 SSE BOS 10 E PSF 25 E UCA 45 WSW ART ...CONT... 65 N BML 70
NW BGR BGR 20 SE BHB 70 S BHB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
ALS 35 NNE GUP 55 NW GUP 85 SSW 4BL 30 WSW 4BL 35 NNE MTJ 15 NE GUC
45 SE GUC 25 W ALS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
MTC 25 NNE TOL 30 SE GRR 10 NNW GRR 25 NNE GRR 40 E MTC.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
GTF 45 SSE HVR 30 NNW GDV 30 NW BHK 25 SE MLS 20 SE 3HT 25 NNE HLN
20 NNW GTF.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE
HYA 15 W HYA 15 E IPT 15 E PIT 20 N CAK 20 NE FDY 30 WSW TOL 20 WSW
GRR 40 NE MKG 80 ENE MTC ...CONT... 75 N BML 65 NNW BGR 45 ESE HUL.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE
U28 30 N RWL 10 W RAP 30 WNW PIR 20 ENE PIR 40 WSW RWF 30 N FRM 30
SSE FRM 25 ENE SLB 25 W IML 25 NNE LIC 35 NNW TAD 40 S ALS 4SL 50 SW
GUP 50 SW GUP 45 NNE SOW 30 NNE FLG 30 W PGA 45 NE U28.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE ACK 20 E BDR
30 SSE IPT 10 S AOO 20 E EKN 40 NNE SSU 20 E CRW 20 ENE HTS 50 NNW
JKL 35 SW LUK 35 ESE IND DNV 20 NNE SPI 45 NNE COU 10 SE MKC 35 SE
MHK 30 W CNK 50 S EAR 15 SSW MCK 15 NNW GLD 35 ESE LAA 10 SE DHT 45
NW CDS 25 SE LTS 35 E FSI 30 SSW TUL 15 NE MKO 10 ENE RKR 10 NNW DEQ
PRX 10 S DUA 35 NNE MWL 30 W SEP 30 E TPL 40 SE LFK 40 SSW HEZ 25 N
MSY 35 SE GPT 60 WNW GZH 20 S TOI 25 NNW TLH 10 SSW VLD 30 E VLD 30
WSW SSI 40 NNW SSI 35 NE SAV 25 WNW CRE 10 SSW OAJ 65 SE HSE
...CONT... 80 NNE EFK 75 E CAR ...CONT... 125 NNE RRT 30 ENE MOT 35
NW BIS 40 WSW FAR 25 W BRD 60 NNW EAU 10 N VOK 20 NW OSH 30 ENE GRB
20 SE TVC 55 E OSC 145 N BUF ...CONT... 75 SSW ELP 30 SW ELP 40 WNW
ELP DMN 35 SW SVC 25 NE DUG 50 SSW DUG ...CONT... 90 SW TUS 35 NE
IGM 15 WNW SGU 25 NNE MLF 55 W RKS 40 NNE BPI 25 NE JAC 15 S LVM 30
E HLN 35 N 3DU 20 SSW 3TH 40 WSW GEG 50 NW EAT 60 SE BLI 125 NNW
BLI.

765 
FXUS63 KPAH 191134
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
634 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures return late this week continuing into 
  next week. Highs will rise into the mid to upper 90's by late 
  this week and into early next week. 

- Sunday into early next week offer increasing chances for
  showers and storms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

An upper lvl ridge centered from the southern Appalachians 
through the Northeast will begin to retrograde west this week 
bringing dry weather and warmer temperatures. Temperatures will warm
into the upper 80's to lower 90's today and into the low to mid
90's by Thursday and Friday. Heat indices will gradually 
increase through the week from the 90's today and Thursday to 
approaching 100 degrees by Friday. 

The weekend period features strong ridging aloft beginning to 
break down by Sunday as an upper level disturbance approaches 
from the northwest. Highs will reach the mid to upper 90's this
weekend. Dewpoints will begin to increase as well associated 
with southwesterly flow. This will bring heat indices to near or
just above 100 degrees. We will need to continue to monitor for
a heat advisory given the stretch of days with elevated heat 
indices. Chances for showers and storms increase Sunday 
associated with a boundary. While the increased clouds and rain 
may keep temperatures a few degrees cooler, humidity will be 
higher. Mid to upper 90's continue into early next week with 
heat indices near or above 100 degrees. A few disturbances
passing through the region next week will offer chances for
shower and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

VFR expected through the next 24 hours. Mid to high clouds will
be common today into tonight. South winds between 5-7 knots will
become calm tonight. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ tonight to 
     midnight CDT /1 AM EDT/ Thursday night for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD

324 
FXUS63 KJKL 201125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
725 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and mainly dry weather will occur through the weekend.
  Afternoon heat indices will peak near 100 at some locations. 

- The upper level high/ridge bringing our heat wave will weaken
  during the weekend and eventually allow a cold front to at least
  approach the area, with the PoPs peaking in the 40 to 60 percent 
  range Sunday night ahead of the front.

- Uncertainty still exists concerning the progress of the cold 
  front next week and whether or not a substantially drier air 
  mass will arrive. For this package, Monday night through Tuesday
  afternoon were left dry, but with precipitation and 
  thunderstorm chances returning late Tuesday night and continuing
  through Wednesday night. 

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

Fog, more widespread than at any time in the last week, will 
slowly burn off over the next 1 to 2 hours, yielding sunny skies.
Updated forecast removes the wording for early this morning, but
still keeps fog in for a couple of more hours. Otherwise, there
are no changes to the forecast. Hourly observations were blended
into the forecast to make for a seamless transition. 


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

Statistical guidance late last evening trended more aggressive 
with fog potential for the early morning hours, and this has 
materialized as fog has been more widespread and more dense than 
in previous early morning periods recently. Have included mention
of this in the HWO product, but will withhold any other products
at this time. The fog will burn off by 9 AM this morning.

The models are in good agreement regarding the large scale flow 
pattern aloft in the short term. A strong ridge of high pressure 
remains in place across most of the eastern third of the CONUS to 
begin the period, and will be the dominant weather feature for 
eastern Kentucky through Friday. A couple of models still try to 
push a weak disturbance aloft through the region, sparking isolated 
showers and storms over portions of the area later today, especially 
during the afternoon. However, confidence in this scenario unfolding 
is quite low at this time, due to the strength of the ridge that 
will be in place and the amount of dry air that is expected to be in 
place through out the low levels of the atmosphere. For those 
reasons, we kept precip chances well below 15% today still. An 
increase in cloud cover is now included today to account for the 
potential passage of the weak disturbance aloft over the surface 
ridge during the afternoon. That all being said, it still appears 
that today will be dry. 

With overall less cloud cover today, expect high temperatures to 
rebound back into the 90s for many locations, through with more 
cloud cover forecasted than initially expected in the northwest 
part of the CWA, highs may trend nearer to 90 degrees with perhaps
a few upper 80s. 

For tonight, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with the 
typical fog forming in the river valleys. Lows in some of the 
typically cooler sheltered valleys have remained elevated by a few 
degrees from expectation the last couple of nights, especially in 
the Upper Kentucky River Basin, so this will need to be watched in 
case lows need to be raised back a couple of degrees. Nevertheless, 
the current forecast calls for lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s 
tonight. 

PoPs rise somewhat Friday afternoon but still remain below the 15 
percent threshold for mention in the forecasts and grids. This is 
due to a disturbance moving southeast from the Midwest toward the 
Carolinas, which is likely to also bring some increase in cloud 
cover. This will do little to keep highs from once again reaching 
the 90s, with heat indices once again approaching 100 degrees. 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

The models remain in overall good agreement regarding the long
wave pattern through the period, although detail differences
concerning smaller scale features grow with time by next week. 
Ridging will be in the process of dampening and drifting southwest
Friday night, with the center reaching the lower Mississippi
Valley by early Saturday. Meanwhile, progressive short wave 
energy will be moving through the northern states and into the
Great Lakes within the westerlies. Late this weekend and 
especially into next week, the ridge will restrengthen and take up
residence near the Four Corners region, while deeper troughing is
reinforced east of the Mississippi River, as additional bouts of 
traversing short wave energy move through the region. 

Hot temperatures will continue to be the main story through the 
period, with highs averaging in the low to mid 90s. Saturday 
continues to look like the overall warmest day, with heat indices 
topping a 100 degrees for some locations. While a stray shower or 
thunderstorm can not be completely ruled out for Saturday, 
coverage would be fairly isolated in nature due to weaker forcing
in place. As such, will keep PoPs just below 20%. A cold front 
will begin to approach from the northwest Sunday, with model 
guidance somewhat slower compared to yesterday. PoPs continue to 
peak in the 40-60% range late Sunday night into early Monday 
morning, with rain chances lingering southeast on Monday, as 
moisture only slowly retreats behind the departing boundary. 
Tuesday looks to be mainly dry, as short wave ridging generally 
takes hold. Overall, the ensemble guidance has trended down on 
rain probabilities over the last few model runs for this period;
however, depending on the evolution of the short wave energy, this
could change. Another cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with rain chances increasing to 
30-40%. Highs will retreat to the upper 80s to around 90 on 
Monday, before warming back to the lower to mid 90s for Tuesday 
and Wednesday. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2024

Fog at KSYM, KSME, and KLOZ should burn off by 13z this morning.
VFR conditions are then expected until late in the TAF period
overnight when fog will likely return. While somewhat confident in
fog occurrence at TAF sites where mentioned, the duration and 
severity are less certain. Winds will average less than 5 kts, and
generally from the north to west direction. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...CMC

A device public servants call “the little robot” began appearing in Gatineau office buildings this March. Their union calls it intrusive and insulting.