ThreatWeb

659 
WTNT43 KWNH 072028
TCDAT3
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal Discussion Number  13
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL032025
500 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall from Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal will continue
to result in flash flood concerns across portions of the Delmarva,
New Jersey, and eastern Pennsylvania into this evening. Isolated to 
scattered flash flooding is possible (particularly within more 
urbanized areas).
 
2. Life-threatening surf and rip currents conditions are expected
to continue at beaches along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach
goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 38.8N  75.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 12H  08/0600Z 40.6N  72.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roth

538 
NWUS51 KCLE 122154
LSRCLE

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
554 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 E Perrysburg          41.55N 83.61W
07/12/2025                   Wood               OH   Trained Spotter  

            Large tree limb down on power lines. 


&&

$$

dk

616 
FXUS63 KIND 130201
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of fog late tonight into early Sunday morning, locally
  dense fog possible

- Scattered storms expected Sunday with the potential for
  localized flooding, mainly south of I-70

- Not quite as warm Sunday and not as humid Sunday night. Otherwise
  humid and very warm/marginally hot conditions most of next week

- Daily chances of showers/t-storms next week for mainly Tuesday and
  onward with isolated downpours/localized flooding possible

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Current radar and satellite imagery show quiet weather conditions 
across Indiana as the disturbance which helped promote thunderstorm 
development earlier is now east of the area. Loss of daytime heating 
has also helped convection quickly diminish this evening. Very weak 
subsidence behind the departing system will help to clear out clouds 
some overnight and keep winds very light. This in addition to recent 
rainfall earlier today and lingering low-level moisture should 
support fog development by late tonight. Locally dense fog cannot 
be ruled out either in some spots.

Other than fog development, expect quiet weather tonight. High 
dewpoints will keep temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Any 
fog that develops should quickly mix out after daybreak SUnday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

As of this afternoon, the first round of storms is moving across 
central Indiana with the next round closely following as a 
negatively tilted trough passes overhead. The scattered showers and 
a couple smaller lines of thunderstorms ongoing have stayed sub 
severe thus far but wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible, especially 
across the southern half of the forecast area. As the day goes on, 
stronger wind gusts will continue to be possible with a few storms 
potentially producing severe winds. Also can't rule out the chance 
for localized flooding in heavier storms or for spots that see 
training storms as PWATs are around 2 inches. 

CAMs continue to show that much of the showers and storms should 
move off to the east of the forecast area around or after sunset but 
lingering showers may last into the overnight hours. The threat for 
severe weather is expected to end around sunset. 

Heat indices will also be of note for today as highs could reach 
near 90, and with the moisture, indices of mid 90s to near 100 
are expected. There could be brief reprieve from the heat within 
rain, but temps will likely rebound quickly afterwards. 

Going into tomorrow, a second, less-impressive day of convection is 
possible as the cool frontal zone slowly progresses southward 
through the area. Confidence is low on this threat of storms, but 
should they form the best chances will be during the afternoon to 
evening hours across the southern half. While a strong storm or two 
cannot be ruled out, organized strong/severe storms are not 
expected. Temperatures will be cooler than today but only by a 
couple of degrees. Good news is that heat indices should stay 
below 100 tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Sunday Night through Monday...

Expect a subtle drop in humidity Sunday night when light northwest 
surface flow drops dewpoints below 65F for several hours near/north 
of I-70. Rain-free conditions Sunday night will continue into early 
Tuesday for most locations, although a couple stray showers cannot 
be ruled out late Monday south of I-70. The workweek should start 
with humid, but non-oppressive conditions and very warm, yet sub-90 
degree readings.

Tuesday through Saturday...

A quasi-stationary front is expected to set-up from weak surface low 
pressure in the central High Plains east-northeastward into the 
Great Lakes. The subtropical upper ridge will make a weak attempt to 
build northward from the southeastern CONUS into the Midwest, but 
suspect any string of 90+ degree days should be held to the Ohio 
Valley and south. In between these features, the CWA will see more 
of the very warm/marginally hot and humid pattern, with daily 
chances for at least diurnally-driven showers/t-storms. The location 
of the boundary to our north should influence location and coverage 
of daily convection. Overall higher precipitable water values around 
2.00 inches will promote a few torrential downpours and potential 
isolated flooding.

While it does seem that cooler air could settle in next weekend, 
there is low confidence at this time due to model inconsistency, 
although unlikely the period ends on a hot note. For the long term, 
afternoon maximum heat indices are expected to peak in the mid to 
upper 90s on Tuesday through Thursday, with isolated low 100s values 
possible over southern Indiana.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon

Discussion:  

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. A low will 
move north tomorrow bringing scattered to numerous convection in the 
late afternoon through the evening. Greatest confidence is at KBMG. 
Will handle thunderstorms with PROB groups for now, but will update 
and refine in later issuances. 

Some wind gusts around 20kt or greater are possible in thunderstorms.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...KF/AGM
AVIATION...Updike

825 
FXUS63 KLMK 131037
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
637 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Warm and humid with continued chances of showers and storms
  through today into tonight. A cluster of stronger storms expected 
  this evening with potential for locally heavy rain, and strong 
  gusty winds.

* Potential for a few pockets of heavy rainfall with 2-3+" across 
  southwest Indiana by late evening, particularly Dubois, Orange, 
  and Perry counties. Some flooding concerns could develop. 
  
* Remaining very warm and humid for most of next week with more 
  scattered rain and storm chances each day. Heavy rain, gusty 
  winds, and lightning will be the main threats.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

An interesting setup for today into tonight as more shower and storm 
chances linger this morning into the afternoon. This will then be 
followed by another round of potentially stronger storms late 
evening into the overnight.

Early this morning, isolated to widely scattered showers (and 
perhaps a few storms) will continue as weak low level jetting ahead 
of an upper trough axis continues. Will keep pops in the 20-30 
percent range to account for this. These showers should push east of 
our by sunrise, and do expect we'll have at least some lull in 
activity through the morning hours. 

By this afternoon, could destabilize enough for a few showers or 
storms, but the main activity is expected later in the evening into 
the early morning hours of Monday. Expect to have an axis of 
moderate instability (1500-2500 J/KG of ML CAPE) extending into our 
western CWA by this evening ahead of a remnant MCV left over from 
the cluster of convection currently over the central Red River 
Valley. By this time, a cluster of storms is expected to be in the 
mid Mississippi River Valley, and should move into our NW CWA where 
deep layer shear will see an uptick to around 20-25 knots. This 
extra shear should be enough for some loosely organized updrafts, 
and could present the opportunity for a few stronger showers or 
storms. Hopefully, storms will have just enough motion to keep heavy 
rainfall amounts spread out a bit more. That being said, sometimes 
these congealed clusters can create pockets of localized heavy 
rainfall amounts. Looking at forecast soundings, a deep and moist 
column coupled with high freezing levels should support efficient 
rainfall processes. PWAT values surge to over 2" through the column 
with this evening cluster of storms. Taking notice of the 13/00z 
HREF Max 24 hour QPF values, and the pockets of higher LPMM values 
suggest that there could be some localized 2-3" amounts in our NW 
CWA. WPC Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall seems warranted for that 
area and will likely message the slightly more elevated flood threat 
up there. Outside of that area of focus, rainfall amounts should be 
more manageable. 

Temperatures aren't expected to be quite as warm today as they were 
yesterday, however max values are still expected in the upper 80s 
and low 90s. Look for mild overnight lows in the 70 to 75 degree 
range for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Monday - Monday Night...

Models seem to be latching onto a remnant MCV or weak shortwave 
still hanging on across our area on Monday. In addition, a weak 
surface boundary will likely be over or just north of the CWA. As a 
result of the these features, should be enough of a trigger for 
isolated to scattered shower and storm coverage, especially in the 
afternoon and evening. Ahead of initiation, temps should still rise 
a bit of above normal, peaking around 90 degrees. A few showers and 
storms could linger into the overnight, but overall convection 
should diminish around and after sunset.

Tuesday - Tuesday Night...

The Tuesday time frame may offer the "driest" overall look to it as 
the upper ridge briefly tries to win out over our area. Will still 
carry some isolated to widely scattered chances this day, but that 
will mainly be due to localized heating/convective temps being 
reached as there really doesn't appear to be an obvious trigger. NBM 
senses a notable increase in temps this day, also adding confidence 
that we'll be mostly dry across the area. Looking for highs solidly 
in the low 90s, with perhaps a few mid 90s in your typical warm 
spots. Tuesday night is a mild overnight with lows mostly in the mid 
70s.

Wednesday - Saturday...

Active weather looks to continue through the mid and late week 
portion of the forecast, and likely into the weekend as well. The 
overall pattern doesn't change much during this stretch as upper 
ridging dominates across the SE CONUS, and a zonal flow pattern 
controls the northern half of the CONUS. We'll be situated between 
these two features, which will give us the combination of some heat 
(temps above normal), a relatively high PWAT airmass, and a few weak 
cool fronts/shortwaves embedded in the passing zonal flow. As a 
result, we'll continue to carry shower and storm chances every day. 
For the most part, we'll be pretty unstable, but will be lacking in 
deep layer shear. There are a couple instances where our northern 
CWA may catch some slightly higher deep layer shear values from a 
passing shortwave, but overall most storms should be garden 
variety/pulse in nature. For now, the best coverage of storms looks 
to be Wed/Thur as a shortwave and it's associated surface low drag a 
cool front down toward our region. 

By Friday/Saturday, the front may impinge enough into our area to 
bring some slightly cooler temps. This looks to be the case as NBM 
is going with solid low to mid 90s for Wed/Thur, and then backs off 
into the upper 80s to around 90 for highs late week into the 
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

A few showers will still be around early this morning, but expect 
the terminals to stay dry. Will continue to monitor if a stray 
shower is expected to impact a terminal.

Otherwise, the main focus this morning will be for some MVFR or even 
brief IFR ceilings at HNB/SDF/LEX from around sunrise through around 
mid to late morning as a cool front drops toward our area. 

Those ceilings should clear by midday or so, and expect VFR 
thereafter. There may end up being another round of showers and 
storms later this afternoon and evening, however confidence is low 
at this point. Did throw in some Prob30s for the best estimate on 
storm impacts to each terminal.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS

593 
NWUS51 KILN 130016
LSRILN

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
816 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Tipp City               39.96N 84.17W
07/12/2025                   Miami              OH   911 Call Center  

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 
            Tipp City. Several reports of trees down in 
            Tipp City. Time estimated from radar. 


&&

$$

JDR

Sorry, product text is unavailable.

665 
WGUS54 KMOB 072011
FFWMOB
ALC097-072315-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FF.W.0025.250707T2011Z-250707T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

The National Weather Service in Mobile has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Mobile County in southwestern Alabama...

* Until 615 PM CDT.

* At 311 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  West Hill and Wheelerville.

Heavy rain rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour over poor drainage urban 
areas will likely result in rather quick runoff and flash flooding. 
Use extreme caution driving around West Mobile.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 8820 3071 8816 3070 8814 3067 8813
      3064 8815 3064 8820 3067 8822 3069 8821

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Black