ThreatWeb

915 
ACUS11 KWNS 011714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011714 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-011845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1532
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Areas affected...parts of Mississippi...Alabama...and far eastern
Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011714Z - 011845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds possible this afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong morning insolation has allowed temperatures to
warm into the upper 80s amid a very moist boundary layer,
characterized by dew point temperatures into the mid 70s F. This has
resulted in destabilization of the environment, yielding 2500 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Visible satellite/radar is now indicating scattered
convection developing across the region. The expectation is for
storms to continue developing, maturing into the afternoon hours
while spreading southeast with time. Weak deep-layer shear will
limit storm organization, but given appreciable low-level lapse
rates (approaching 8 C/km) and the aforementioned moist environment,
periodic strong/water-loaded downdrafts can be expected with this
activity, resulting in isolated wind damage throughout the remainder
of the afternoon and early evening.

..Karstens/Mosier.. 07/01/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30769023 31609087 32699075 33569008 33968949 34378826
            34618725 34278614 33428547 32118571 31698602 31188685
            30448889 30769023 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

658 
FXUS61 KPBZ 020559
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
159 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Fog is possible early this morning, then mostly dry conditions
are expected today outside of a stray shower. Isolated
thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon, with dry weather
for the Fourth and Saturday. Temperatures will gradually climb
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Early morning expected
- Mostly dry conditions today
---------------------------------------------------------------

Skies have mostly cleared behind the exiting cold front. This
clearing, along with light wind and lingering boundary layer 
moisture, will likely lead to at least patchy dense fog across
the area this morning. Fog should dissipate by 8-9am with
surface heating. Will continue to monitor the need for a Special
Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory. 

Mostly dry and quiet conditions are expected after the fog 
mixes out. Can't rule out a stray shower or two this afternoon 
during peak heating, but the region looks to remain capped, and 
the probability for any development is low. Dry weather
continues tonight.

After cooler temperatures Tuesday, area highs will be back in
the mid-80s for most. Lows will be near-average.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Slight chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.
- Dry and sunny weather for the Fourth.
- Temperatures a few degrees above average.

----------------------------------------------------------------

A trough and its associated surface cold front, is expected to track 
southeastward across the Upper Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Very 
dry air aloft will likely inhibit updraft growth, limiting the 
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Still, isolated
thunderstorms are possible. NBM probs give a 20-35% chance for
rain in the afternoon, mostly across PA. Given the dry air
aloft and quite substantial sfc-based CAPE, should note that 
there will be a conditional threat for downbursts... if more
robust updrafts are able to develop. Machine learning guidance
does marginally support a low-end severe weather threat as well.
Will continue to monitor this threat. Any convection will 
quickly diminish after sunset with loss of daytime heating.

Afternoon temperatures should remain a few degrees above
seasonal average, while temperatures Thursday night may dip a
degree or two below average. 

Beautiful weather looks to be in store for the Fourth with sfc high
pressure and ridging overhead. Models do develop a few isolated
diurnal showers and thunderstorms to our west, but this will 
likely remain outside our forecast area. The chance for a stray 
shower across eastern Ohio is low enough to preclude any 
mention. Otherwise, the forecast looks great for outdoor plans 
and evening fireworks. Temperatures will run a few degrees above
average under partly to mostly sunny skies, and heat indices in
the mid to upper 80s outside of the ridges. Temperatures fall 
back to near-normal Friday night

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry through the first half of the holiday weekend
- Increasingly hot and humid with shower and thunderstorm
  chances returning Sunday and Monday

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Sfc high pressure and ridging aloft should promote mainly dry
and warm weather again Saturday. Rising heights and southerly
flow should boost area highs into the upper 80s to near 90F. NBM
probs for 90F are highest across eastern Ohio and the Pittsburgh
urban heat island (75-80%). Elsewhere, probs are generally
around 20-30%.

The ridge is then progged to flatten Sunday into early next week, 
with westerly flow aloft across the Upper Ohio Valley region. 
Disturbances embedded in this flow aloft are expected to 
periodically cross the region, with daily shower and thunderstorm 
chances returning. 

Even as the ridge flattens, 500 mb heights are still expected to 
approach 590 dam, bringing hot and humid conditions across the 
region. High probability (70%-90%) of maximum temperatures at or
above 90 degrees on Sunday and Monday. However, the chances of 
Heat Advisory criteria remain low as heat indices remain in the
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Areas of IFR fog are expected to develop through early morning
with clearing skies behind an exiting cold front, and low level
moisture in place. LIFR is most likely from DUJ-LBE-AGC-HLG-MGW,
where heavier amounts of rain fell on Tuesday, providing greater
low level moisture for fog.

THe fog should quickly dissipate between 12 and 13Z as mixing
begins, and as a ridge of surface high pressure builds in. The
CU rule and model soundings indicate a scattered diurnal 
cumulus layer should be in place through the day, dissipating in
the evening. High clouds are expected to begin to increase 
Wednesday night/Thursday morning ahead of an approaching cold 
front.

Outlook...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible
with a Thursday cold front. A lack of available moisture with
the front will likely be a limiting factor in storm development.
VFR is then expected through Sunday as high pressure moves 
across the region.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley/Lupo
AVIATION...WM

142 
FLUS43 KIWX 011807 AAA
HWOIWX

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-
216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-021815-
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 /107 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest 
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Afternoon heat indices into the low to mid 90s Friday, and the mid
90s to 100 degrees on Saturday.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Saturday night through
early next week. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

LMZ043-046-021815-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
207 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of 
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There are periodic chances for thunderstorms Saturday night through
early next week. 

$$

292 
CDUS43 KPAH 020727
CLIPAH

CLIMATE REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
227 AM CDT WED JUL 02 2025

...................................

...THE PADUCAH KY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JULY 1 2025...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1937 TO 2025


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST      
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR     
                                                  NORMAL           
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)                                                          
 YESTERDAY                                                           
  MAXIMUM         87    429 PM 105    2012  89     -2       82       
  MINIMUM         68   1137 PM  54    1948  69     -1       62       
  AVERAGE         78                        79     -1       72     

PRECIPITATION (IN)                                                    
  YESTERDAY        0.13          1.62 1972   0.16  -0.03     0.00     
  MONTH TO DATE    0.13                      0.16  -0.03     0.00     
  SINCE JUN 1      8.29                      4.67   3.62     6.11     
  SINCE JAN 1     37.20                     27.14  10.06    29.69     

SNOWFALL (IN)                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0.0           0.0    MM   0.0    0.0      0.0      
  MONTH TO DATE    0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  SINCE JUN 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  SINCE JUL 1      0.0                       0.0    0.0      0.0      
  SNOW DEPTH       0                                                 

DEGREE DAYS                                                           
 HEATING                                                              
  YESTERDAY        0                         0      0        0        
  MONTH TO DATE    0                         0      0        0        
  SINCE JUN 1      0                         2     -2        0        
  SINCE JUL 1      0                         0      0        0        

 COOLING                                                              
  YESTERDAY       13                        14     -1        7        
  MONTH TO DATE   13                        14     -1        7        
  SINCE JUN 1    405                       362     43      384        
  SINCE JAN 1    598                       572     26      732        
...................................................................


WIND (MPH)                                                            
  HIGHEST WIND SPEED    12   HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION    NW (300)       
  HIGHEST GUST SPEED    17   HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION    NW (300)       
  AVERAGE WIND SPEED     4.2                                        


SKY COVER                                                             
  POSSIBLE SUNSHINE  MM                                                 
  AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5                                                 


WEATHER CONDITIONS                                                    
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED YESTERDAY.                         
  RAIN                                                                
  LIGHT RAIN                                                          
  FOG                                                                 


RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
 HIGHEST    97          1200 AM                                      
 LOWEST     48           400 PM                                      
 AVERAGE    73                                                        

..........................................................


THE PADUCAH KY CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY
                         NORMAL    RECORD    YEAR                     
 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   90       101      2012                      
 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F)   69        56      1948                      


SUNRISE AND SUNSET                                                    
JULY  2 2025..........SUNRISE   540 AM CDT   SUNSET   819 PM CDT     
JULY  3 2025..........SUNRISE   540 AM CDT   SUNSET   819 PM CDT     


-  INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R  INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T  INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.




$$

317 
FXUS63 KJKL 020455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1255 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Enjoy drier and more comfortable conditions for today and 
  Thursday.

- Independence Day looks beautiful and very warm, with mostly
  sunny skies and highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, perfect for
  outdoor celebrations!

- Starting this weekend and into early next week, prepare for
  increasing heat and humidity, which will make it feel like the 
  90s, along with daily chances for pop-up showers and 
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1110 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
Did also tamp down the near term PoPs and beef up the fog
overnight. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web 
servers along with a freshening of the zones, SAFS, and the
issuance of an SPS for areas of dense fog through the night. 

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows weak low pressure slipping off to the east
while some high pressure is poised to enter from the west. This
transition is clearing the threat of showers and thunderstorms off
to the east while drier and quieter weather is inbound from the
northwest. Currently temperatures are running in the mid to upper
70s away from any showers or thunderstorms to the low 70s amid the
convection. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints 
are generally in the upper 60s northwest to the low and mid 70s in
the southeast. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the 
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune
the PoPs and Wx per the current radar and CAMs guidance through
the night. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web 
servers along with a freshening of the zones, HWO, and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

Current surface analysis has the forecast area under the warm sector 
regime ahead of an approaching cold front. The parent surface low, 
responsible for the front, is located over southern Canada but the 
front itself is extended southwestward from the surface low through 
the Commonwealth and down to the High Plains of Texas. As the front 
approaches, increasing showers and thunderstorms are expected with 
storms chances maximizing ahead of FROPA. Locally, showers and 
thunderstorms are developing with the backside of the front in 
western Kentucky.

Through the remainder of the day, the front will approach the area 
bringing increased chances of showers and storms. Widespread severe 
weather isn't expected due to a lack in deep instability and 
mediocre shear values. However, can't rule out a stronger 
thunderstorm this afternoon. Also, a long, skinny CAPE profile 
exists meaning that efficient storms are expected and with PWATs 
upwards and over 2.00"; heavy rainfall can be expected with any of 
these showers. Fortunately, the activity appears to progressive and 
that should mitigate the flash flooding/hydrology threat. Once the 
front passes late tonight, surface high pressure will build into the 
area ushering in cooler and drier air. 

Surface high pressure lingers through Wednesday into Thursday 
leading to drier weather through the rest of the period. Temperatures 
will rebound back into the mid-80s for Wednesday but dry 
northwesterly flow will bring dewpoints down into the mid to upper-
60s leading to a dry-heat compared to the oppressive heat we saw the 
last few days.

In summary, a cold front will cross through the CWA today bringing 
showers and storms. Highs will climb into the low to mid-80s pre-
frontal. Once FROPA occurs, surface high pressure will build into 
the region with high temperatures climbing into the mid-80s. 
Overnight lows will still remain in the low to mid-60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025

The long-term period analysis opens on Thursday morning with a 
500H trough extending southward from Quebec into the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. At the same time, a 500H ridge extends from the 
Gulf of America northward through the Central Plains and into 
Manitoba/Saskatchewan. Translating down to the surface, an ~1018 
mb high is centered over the Mid-Mississippi Valley but is 
expansive and already very much in control of the weather over 
eastern Kentucky. Deep layer northwesterly flow to the east of the
surface high and upper-level ridge is feeding a warm but dry 
continental air mass into the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields.

As the aforementioned trough departs into the Canadian Maritimes 
and West Atlantic, the upper-level ridge axis will translate 
eastward to a position over the Commonwealth Saturday morning. The
associated surface reflection strengthens as it lifts northeast 
and becomes an ~1022 mb high centered near/over Eastern 
Pennsylvania. Moisture levels, remaining relatively low under a 
continental air mass, will begin to inch higher beginning Saturday
as a southerly flow from the subtropics develops on the backside 
of the surface high. PWATs will rise back into the 1.5 to 1.8 inch
range by Monday and Tuesday (or to between the 75th and 90th 
percentile relative to climatology). At the same time, the upper-
level ridge flattens with a notable weakness developing over the 
Ohio Valley between a Pacific shortwave trough passing through the
northern CONUS and a potential upper low of tropical origin 
trying to press northward. Specific details become more obscure 
due to increased model spread during the last couple days of the 
forecast period, but the return of diurnally modulated deep 
convection is probable from Sunday onward.

In sensible terms, a dry warming trend will be underway on 
Thursday and continue right into the upcoming weekend with mostly 
sunny days and mostly clear nights. High temperatures on Thursday 
reach the mid to upper 80s, upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, and 
lower to mid 90s on Saturday. Moderate dew points will allow for 
good cooling at night though with low temperatures forecast in the
lower to middle 60s on Thursday night and mainly middle 60s on 
Friday night. Heading into early next week, the increasing 
humidity levels will help limit the diurnal temperature range a 
few degrees with highs slipping to near 90 degrees for Monday and 
Tuesday while nighttime minimums moderate to near 70 degrees. In 
spite of the cooling daytime highs, the higher humidity levels 
will still result in heat indices rising well into the 90s on both
afternoons. Also, with that rise in moisture, we will see the 
return of daily pop-up shower and thunderstorm chances from Sunday
onward.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT WED JUL 2 2025

Surface high pressure is building into the region and starting to
dry us out while clearing the clouds. Obs and satellite imagery
show that widespread fog will expand though the area into dawn. 
From this, expect categorical reduction at TAF sites to LIFR or 
lower, at times. There could be a lifting of the fog towards and
around dawn. The rest of the fog will then clear out by 14Z 
allowing all sites will return to VFR. Winds will be light and 
variable, for the most part, through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GREIF

Instead of facing a hearing at the Ontario Land Tribunal, the City of Ottawa has settled for accepting one-sixth of the application fees it planned to charge for possible urban expansions.

Sorry, product text is unavailable.