ThreatWeb

051 
NWUS54 KLIX 021553
LSRLIX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1053 AM CDT Wed Jul 2 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Gulfport          30.37N 89.10W
07/01/2025                   Harrison           MS   Broadcast Media  

            A large oak tree was downed on 15th Street 
            near 33rd Avenue in Gulfport. 


&&

$$

MEFFER

690 
WUUS01 KWNS 031930
PTSDY1

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AREAL OUTLINE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 PM CDT THU JUL 03 2025

VALID TIME 032000Z - 041200Z

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... TORNADO ...

0.02   49060241 49070026 49039830 48569755 47969754 47459801
       46190107 45420290 44970368 44650464 44650522 45060556
       45920514 46990443 48690333 49060241
&&

... HAIL ...

0.05   39507345 39657576 40117749 41087861 42467853 42657762
       43097693 43357673 43897656 44447654
0.05   49829524 48889570 48229632 47569736 47069872 45890121
       45320221 44640379 44520536 44850590 45410598 46690535
       47950457 49470398
0.05   45768983 44648838 43308810 42508843 41898919 41419045
       41519216 42489379 43799439 45229404 46229302 46439187
       45768983
0.15   49309784 48889761 48409761 48049781 47609857 47129961
       46180180 45120405 45220496 45990507 46730456 47700389
       49440142
SIGN   47810363 48990203 49009975 48509968 47919994 47390057
       46900132 46040265 45540326 45120409 45240500 46140506
       47180425 47810363
&&

... WIND ...

0.05   38267407 39447768 40517982 42347902 42657756 43057696
       43377670 43887656 44357653
0.05   48599194 47799284 47359337 46869327 46589275 46459185
       45728975 44688838 43308811 42488844 41878918 41419042
       41519215 42519380 43859443 44649529 45109616 45529742
       45769888 45740100 45330192 44920253 44480331 43910477
       43710552 43900595 44890624 46160537 47550480 49520408
0.15   42946978 42917059 42767105 42187137 40657114 99999999
       39087360 40107587 41767650 43777474 45357349
0.15   49309629 47729697 46190115 45230313 44880395 44600493
       44770552 45440532 45810516 46830449 47940357 49370152
SIGN   48300177 48780065 48779864 48259793 47609857 47060045
       46550163 45830301 45850361 46100383 46560378 47090356
       47900247 48300177
&&

CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK POINTS DAY 1

... CATEGORICAL ...

SLGT   39087360 40107587 41767650 43777474 45347349 99999999
       42936986 42897071 42717109 42167134 40647114
SLGT   49309630 47719695 46150128 44970372 44590492 44830556
       45860513 47030431 47850360 49370152
MRGL   48569194 47379329 46859325 46579259 46469185 45708972
       44608831 43268810 42488845 41848920 41449043 41519215
       42489379 43849439 44619529 45119624 45549768 45739892
       45740106 45340196 44970250 44390350 44130420 43890488
       43720554 43900604 45010636 46840533 49490408
MRGL   38267405 39447768 40517982 42377902 42657757 43097694
       43397670 43817656 44287653 44347654
TSTM   29768694 30568585 31778473 33048415 33998322 34508222
       34868030 35857954 37297893 38287904 38777971 39148089
       39208239 39198313 39588414 40208500 40558598 40128750
       39838843 39828906 39589005 39519086 39449185 39549326
       39199380 38539417 37719419 37179348 36449192 35249097
       33159008 30848864 30538838 29748796 99999999 41169485
       43029467 44369530 44679641 44799762 44919918 45070063
       43850171 40730157 39750161 38000172 37180139 36940060
       37599930 37879907 38289854 38469815 38699758 39129703
       39609674 39979595 41169485 99999999 48588886 47688826
       46188747 44758646 44058573 43718474 43278352 42538257
       42238241 99999999 31491291 32341315 33511350 34111417
       34531522 34891583 35621642 36471704 36681733 36641757
       36161778 35751822 36031857 36991901 37731927 38291941
       38701957 39351974 40282089 40532135 40592164 40462193
       40042196 39902250 40472286 41362297 42162292 42522305
       43692292 44702225 44972170 45232079 45231953 45481793
       46381582 47411279 48571058 48740952 48680844 48410727
       48400635 48770602 49450582
TSTM   43038015 42627913 42697797 43177709 44427700

&&
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE
ACY 30 NNW ILG 35 SE ELM 50 SSW SLK 65 NNW BTV ...CONT... 50 ESE PSM
15 SSE PSM 25 N BOS 25 SW BOS 45 SSE BID.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW
ROX 20 SSE GFK 45 ENE Y22 45 SSW 2WX 35 ENE GCC 35 N GCC 35 NNE 4BQ
25 ESE GDV 25 S ISN 75 N MOT.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
ELO 20 W HIB 40 SSW HIB 25 SW DLH 30 SSE DLH 15 WNW RHI 10 NW GRB 25
NNW MKE 30 ESE JVL 25 SSW RFD MLI 30 NNE OTM 20 ESE FOD 15 N FRM 10
WNW RWF 15 SSE VVV 35 E ABR 30 NW ABR 35 WNW MBG 40 SSE Y22 65 SE
2WX 35 NW RAP 55 W RAP 45 SE GCC 45 S GCC 40 SW GCC 35 ENE SHR 30 SW
GDV 95 NNW ISN.

THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 E
SBY 15 E MRB 20 E PIT 20 NE JHW 35 S ROC 35 E ROC 35 WNW SYR 30 WSW
ART 30 NW ART 35 NW ART.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE PNS 25 NNW PFN
35 WNW ABY 35 NW MCN AHN 25 S GSP 45 ESE CLT 30 SE GSO 15 E LYH SHD
10 SE EKN 30 ESE PKB 10 W UNI 50 W UNI 20 S DAY 20 E MIE 35 NW MIE
10 SE DNV 15 SSW CMI 10 W DEC 25 SW SPI 35 SSE UIN 50 NNE COU 25 SE
CDJ 35 NNW SZL 35 WSW SZL 40 NNE JLN SGF 20 S UNO 45 SSW JBR 25 S
GWO 25 WNW MOB 15 SW MOB 65 SSE MOB ...CONT... 40 NE SDA 25 ESE SPW
15 SW RWF 35 NE BKX 25 WSW ATY 50 SW ABR 35 SSW MBG 15 SSW PHP 15 N
IML 25 N GLD 50 E LAA 25 WNW LBL 20 ESE LBL 40 ESE DDC 50 NNW P28 40
WNW HUT 30 NNW HUT 10 SSE SLN 20 W MHK 35 N MHK 20 WSW FNB 40 NE SDA
...CONT... 90 NE GNA 35 NNE CMX 25 SSE MQT 35 NNW MBL 30 ESE MBL 35
WNW MBS 25 NNE FNT 15 ESE MTC 35 SE MTC ...CONT... 100 S GBN 50 SSW
GBN 60 NW GBN 45 NE BLH 40 WSW EED 55 E DAG 55 NNE DAG 60 WSW DRA 70
NNE NID 65 N NID 35 N NID 30 W NID 50 NNE BFL 40 ENE FAT 55 WNW BIH
55 SE TVL 25 ESE TVL 10 S RNO 70 E RBL 55 ENE RBL 45 NE RBL 25 NE
RBL 15 ESE RBL 20 SW RBL 40 NW RBL 35 W MHS 15 S MFR 15 NW MFR 35
SSE EUG 40 ESE SLE 50 SSW DLS 35 SE DLS 45 SW PDT 45 N BKE 20 NNW
P69 55 NNE 3DU 35 W HVR 15 NE HVR 60 E HVR 35 WNW GGW 15 NE GGW 45
NE GGW 95 NNE GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N ERI 30 SW BUF 35
SSW ROC 30 E ROC 55 WNW ART.

474 
FXUS63 KIWX 031818
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A stray shower or storm possible (10-20%) into early this evening, 
  and then again Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. 

- Hot and humid Friday through this weekend.

- Better chances (30-50%) for scattered showers and storms
  arrive Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Convection should be very limited again late this afternoon into 
early this evening in the vicinity of a lake shadow/breeze given 
limited boundary layer moisture and warm/dry mid-levels. Attention 
later tonight into Friday morning will turn to how upstream 
convection across WI evolves on the leading edge of a building ~592 
dam 500 mb ridge. This activity should struggle to survive east-
southeast as it outpaces its LLJ and associated moisture 
transport/convergence. Whether a MCV, cloud debris, or a more robust 
outflow boundary folds into portions of our area on Friday 
remains uncertain and could hold temperatures down a bit with 
non-zero shower/storm chances. At this point, this kind of 
impact locally appears less likely (only a 10-20% PoP) with the 
upper ridge rather aggressive to build in with dry conditions 
and highs making a run at 90F likely for most locations.

Upper ridge axis will be overhead on Saturday with hot and dry 
conditions prevailing. This ridge breaks down into Sunday as a 
dampening shortwave tracks east into the Great Lakes and forces a 
slow moving cold front through Sunday afternoon-night. Pronounced 
moisture pooling per ~2" precipitable water values, and moderate 
boundary layer destabilization pre-frontal Sunday afternoon, while 
overall flow/shear through the column is weak given the shearing 
nature to the wave. Similar to previous events, threats appear to 
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds (wet downbursts) with 
scattered thunderstorms during this time. 

Ensembles continue to support broad upper level troughing across the 
Midwest and Great Lakes next week with seasonable temps. Mainly dry 
conditions should also win out in this regime, though did retain NBM 
low PoPs given the non-zero potential for mainly diurnally driven 
showers/storms with any weak embedded mid level impulses, and along 
any outflow/lake boundaries. 

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

A weak shortwave approaches from the northwest during the afternoon 
and evening hours tonight and may be able to set off an few isolated 
showers or thunderstorms before the day is done. One fly in the 
ointment is that an outflow boundary from yesterday's storms 
appeared to settled south of US-30 and that may completely remove 
today's chance for a shower or storm. As such, will lean entirely 
dry for this forecast. As a result, aside from some patchy morning 
ground fog, expect VFR conditions throughout. Wind-wise, our 
northwest winds veer overnight to become more southwesterly on 
Friday with a warm front now north and east of the area.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Friday 
     night for INZ020.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Friday 
     night for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Roller

844 
FXUS63 KPAH 041737
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY
1237 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry for the 4th of July holiday and Saturday.

- Unsettled weather returns Sunday onward with daily rain and
  storm chances.

- After temperatures in the low to mid 90s this weekend,
  temperatures cool slightly into the upper 80s to lower 90s 
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Upper level ridging will build across the Quad State today 
before shifting further east across the Ohio Valley by the 
weekend. Surface high pressure is moving eastward and will 
remain well to our east through the weekend period. The ridging 
aloft and at the surface will keep dry conditions in place for 
the 4th of July holiday and for at least the first half of the 
weekend. Temperatures will continue to warm over the weekend 
with low to mid 90's today and widespread mid 90's both Saturday
and Sunday.

Ridging begins to break down as upper level troughing 
approaches from the northwest. A more amplified pattern will
develop with ridging out west and subsequent troughing across 
the eastern half of the CONUS. A frontal boundary will slide 
eastward from the plains Sunday into early next week before 
stalling out. Upper troughing aloft and increasing southerly 
flow and moisture advection will work in tandem to result in 
shower and storm chances increasing Sunday into next week with
peak chances occurring in the afternoon hours. Temperatures may
cool off a couple of degrees next week given the expected 
increased coverage of showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025

The primary flight category through the forecast period will be
VFR. FEW-SCT CU will remain through the afternoon with light
southeast winds of around 5 mph. Skies will clear and winds will
become calm after sunset, this may lead to another morning of
patchy fog but confidence remains low. 

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...WFO LMK

239 
FXUS63 KJKL 041726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
126 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be hot and a little more humid. High temperatures 
  will reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

- The weekend brings the hottest air. Expect widespread high
  temperatures of 90 to 95 degrees, feeling oppressive at times, with
  a low chance of isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms, 
  mainly on Sunday.

- A more active weather pattern begins Monday with the threat of
  daily thunderstorms, some of which could bring locally heavy
  rain. Though still oppressive on Monday, daily high 
  temperatures gradually ease into the mid to upper 80s by mid-
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025

Just a quick refresh based on the latest observations and updating
morning text and radio products to remove mention of fog. Grids
have been saved and sent.

UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025

No major changes to the grids except updating the next few hours
based on current surface trends. Also, updated morning text and
radio products to reflect those changes. Grids have been saved and
sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1145 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 745 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure in control of the weather
over eastern Kentucky. This is keeping the winds light and skies 
mostly clear, though a few stray sprinkles are noted over western
parts of the area that will fade out with sunset. Currently, 
temperatures are running in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Meanwhile,
dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 60s. Have updated the 
forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the 
T/Td/Sky grids as well as some sprinkles in the west. These minor 
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with 
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 237 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025

Surface high pressure continues to exert its dominance across much 
of the CONUS. This persistent pattern has maintained, and will 
continue to maintain, warm and dry conditions over the forecast area.

Today, surface high pressure will ensure warm and mostly dry 
weather. However, a slight increase in moisture introduces very 
isolated chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, which 
are expected to dissipate around sunset. Any developing shower or 
storm will produce heavy rainfall, though severe weather is not 
anticipated. Highs today are forecast to climb into the mid to upper 
80s, and with the aforementioned moisture increase, heat indices 
will feel two to three degrees warmer than the actual air 
temperature. Tonight will mirror recent evenings, with lows in the 
low to mid-60s accompanied by widespread river valley fog.

Independence Day will feature slightly warmer temperatures and 
elevated heat indices due to a further increase in atmospheric 
moisture. This moisture advection is a result of an upper-level 
trough tracking from the Great Lakes towards the Northeast, which 
will diminish the influence of drier northwesterly flow. Showers and 
thunderstorms are again possible Friday afternoon, though confidence 
in their exact coverage and location remains low. Any activity that 
does develop is expected to dissipate towards sunset. Friday night 
will be similar to Thursday night, with overnight lows in the mid-
60s and river valley fog.

In summary, surface high pressure keeps mostly dry weather with high 
temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will 
generally remain in the mid 60s, with widespread valley fog
expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2025

Hot, humid and generally rain-free conditions over the weekend 
will transition to an unsettled weather pattern heading into the 
new work week. The analysis based on the 03/12z model suite, 
beginning Saturday morning, shows a 500H ridge axis stretching 
from northwest Mexico to the Ohio Valley. A broad associated 
surface high is centered near/over the Delaware River Valley. 
Multiple Pacific shortwaves are riding over the ridge, the first 
of which will be over the Upper Midwest, interacting with a much 
deeper upper level trough over the Hudson Bay to northwest 
Greenland. This supports a potent low over the Hudson Bay with a 
cold front extending to a weak surface low pressure wave over 
Minnesota. From there, the front extends westward to over Montana 
where a second Pacific shortwave is crossing the northern Rockies.

The ridge aloft reaches its peak strength over the Commonwealth 
on Saturday before partially breaking down on Sunday as the first 
shortwave trough settles southeast toward the Ohio Valley. The 
weekend days will feature the hottest air mass (850 mb temps of 
20-21 Celsius) aloft while, at the same time, humidity levels rise
due to the southerly return flow on the back side of the surface 
high. Enough height falls and moisture increase are anticipated by
Sunday afternoon for isolated afternoon pop-up convection. Right 
now the greatest opportunity for rainfall on Sunday appears to be 
near/over the higher mountains adjacent to the Virginia and 
Tennessee borders. Rain chances become more widespread on 
Monday/Monday night as the first shortwave guides its associated 
cold front into eastern Kentucky. As the features better forcing 
skirts to our north on Tuesday, guidance is muddled as to how far 
south the boundary will actually reach before stalling. A weak 
wave of low pressure, forced by the second 500H shortwave trough, 
then rides along the stalled boundary into the Ohio Valley mid-
week. The waffling frontal boundary and low pressure wave will 
keep diurnally-modulated convection in the forecast through the 
remainder of the long-term forecast period. As 850 mb temperatures
ease back into the 17-18 Celsius range by mid-week, PWATS are 
conversely favored to rise above 1.5 inches for most of the time 
from Monday afternoon onward. Of particular note, the modeled 
combination of a very moist atmosphere, a deep warm cloud layer, 
skinny CAPE profiles, and generally weak steering flow will be 
favorable for locally heavy rainfall. 

In more sensible terms, look for a quintessential Fourth of July 
weekend with a lot of heat and rising humidity levels -- perfect 
weather for the first dog days of summer. Saturday is favored to 
have the hottest air temperatures of the two weekend days with 
highs ranging from 90 to 95 degrees, but moderate humidity levels 
will still keep it from feeling too oppressive. Saturday night 
will still cool off decently into the mid 60s to near 70. Sundays 
air temperatures are forecast to peak about a degree cooler than 
Saturday but higher humidity levels will still make it feel like 
the middle 90s. Mostly sunny skies are likely on both days with a 
little more cloud cover on Sunday, when there will also be a low-
end chance of a popup shower or thunderstorm. A daily scattered to
numerous thunderstorm threat returns on Monday and continues 
through the remainder of the period. Some of the showers and 
thunderstorms could produce heavy rain. Under the more humid 
regime, daily high temperatures continue subsiding back into the 
mid to upper 80s by mid-week. Heat indices will follow a similar 
trend, after peaking in the 95 to 100 degree range for most 
locations on Monday afternoon. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025

A cumulus deck has developed across the area with this TAF 
issuance. This cloud deck is VFR and as a result, terminals will 
be VFR. Clearing is expected overnight tonight but river valley 
fog is forecast to develop which could cause category reduction 
after 08Z and through 13Z. Once fog dissipates, terminals will 
return to VFR. Lastly, light and variable winds are expected 
through the period. 

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...VORST

The City of Ottawa is still flying the Stars and Stripes on Independence Day this Friday, regardless of trade tensions between the United States and Canada.

915 
NWUS54 KLIX 012329
LSRLIX

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
629 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 ENE Gulfport          30.40N 89.03W
07/01/2025                   Harrison           MS   Public           

            Public reported a tree down on West Pine 
            Street. 


&&

$$

HRL