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Topics - ThreatWebInternal
1
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:11 PM »
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:05 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...847
FXUS64 KLIX 120605
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
105 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
- An elevated risk for localized heavy rainfall leading to street
flooding and overflowing of poor drainage will continue today.
- Lower rain chances and warmer temps return next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
A shortwave trough axis moving trough the region will continue to
bring increased rain chances to the area today. This trough will
interact with a very moist environment as noted by PWATS of 2 to
2.2 inches which are in excess of the 75th percentile for this
time of year. As temperatures warm into the 80s, updraft
development will begin in the mid- morning hours and scattered to
numerous showers and storms will start to fire up by the late
morning hours. These showers and storms will continue to fire up
through the mid to late afternoon hours before beginning dissipate
in the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Storm
motion will remain around 10 mph and rainfall rates of 2 to 3
inches per hour can be expected with the strongest storms. As a
result, another day of localized flooding concerns, especially for
low lying and poorly drained urban areas, will be in play. The
region remains in a level 1 out of 5, marginal, risk of flooding
for today.
The trough axis will begin to pull east of the area tomorrow and a
broad upper level ridge over Texas will start to expand eastward.
As the influence of the ridge increases, the mid and upper levels
of the atmosphere will begin to both warm and dry in response to
increasing subsidence on Sunday and Monday. This will allow PWATS
to fall to between 1.8 and 2 inches. These values are still
elevated for this of year at between the median and 75th
percentile, but the increasing ridging aloft will help to somewhat
limit updraft development. Convective activity will struggle to
maintain itself until temperatures warm into the lower 90s and the
weak mid- level capping inversion is overcome. Overall, shower
and storm coverage will be lower and will be more confined to the
sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries where low level forcing is
maximized. PoP will be closer to average in the 30 to 50 percent
range. Another concern will the threat of stronger wind gusts with
the most intense storms that form. Drier air will easily entrain
in the tallest updrafts and this could lead to winds of 40 to 50
mph with these more intense storms. An isolated severe wind gust
of 60 mph cannot be ruled out for Sunday and Monday. This is
supported by DCAPE values of around 1100 J/KG and favorable model
sounding profiles exhibiting very steep lapse rates below 3km in
excess of 8.0C/km.
By Tuesday, continued drying and warming aloft as the ridge
becomes centered over the Tennessee Valley will push PWATS down to
around the median values for this time of year. Convection will
fire up later in the day, more toward the mid to late afternoon,
when the convective temperatures in the low to mid 90s are
reached. The end result will be more isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms and PoP of 20 to 40 percent. Once again, storms
will fire up first along the sea breeze and lake breeze
boundaries and then fire up along outflow from the previous
convection as those first storms collapse shortly after forming.
Although the severe threat will be lower on Tuesday, one or two
storms could turn strong enough to pull in some drier air aloft
and produce damaging wind gusts.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
By Tuesday night, upper level ridging is expected to be centered
(598dm) near Chattanooga, Tennessee. Meanwhile, an upper trough that
moves off the Mid-Atlantic coast Monday night and Tuesday is
expected to close off a low off the coast of the Carolinas Wednesday
and head southwestward around the upper ridge, crossing Florida and
entering the eastern Gulf Thursday night into Friday. There's
actually pretty decent agreement on the mid level feature between
the GFS and ECMWF operational runs from the daytime hours Friday,
at least through the end of the workweek next week.
At this time, neither of the medium range models develops a surface
low over the Gulf with this mid level feature. The drying of the
airmass that is anticipated from the ridging on Sunday and Monday
actually continues through most of the workweek, with precipitable
water values even on Friday forecast to remain between the 50th and
75th percentiles in most of the area (1.5 to 1.8 inches).
If the moisture depicted in the forecast soundings is in the
ballpark, we may not see a lot of thunderstorms during the workweek.
That would also mean the hot weather continues for most of next week
with temperatures in the mid 90s looking reasonable. May not be
enough humidity to justify heat advisories though.
Beyond next Friday, the global operational models fall out of
agreement with each other. The ECMWF continues to take the mid level
system westward to the Texas coast without a lot of impact. The 18z
GFS brings it to about 90W before starting to drift it east next
weekend. We'll worry about those differences when next weekend falls
within the range of the forecast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
A weak inversion has formed over southwest Mississippi this
morning in relation to light boundary layer winds and continued
high relative humidity. This has resulted in LIFR low stratus and
fog development at MCB in the last hour. These conditions will
persist through around 13z before quickly mixing out as
temperatures begin to warm and inversion lifts. Outside of MCB,
prevailing VFR conditions are expected at the remaining terminals
through daybreak. After 16-17z, scattered showers and storms will
begin to develop and could impact any of the terminals. PROB30
wording is in place from 17z to 23z at the majority of the
terminals for thunderstorm impacts with gusty winds of 20 to 25
knots, lightning, and brief reductions in visibility.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Winds will turn more south-southwesterly but with the Bermuda ridge
centered well east of the area, wind speeds should be light at 10
knots or less today. The high will become more centered over the
north-central Gulf Sunday into next week. This will cause winds to
turn more south-southeasterly and even light/variable at times. Seas
will generally remain in the 2 feet or less range. Additionally,
thunderstorm activity will develop each day, peaking in the early to
mid-morning hours, and these storms will produce higher wind gusts,
waterspouts, and lightning concerns.
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
Source: LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 12, 1:05 AM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
2
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:10 PM »
MOB issues STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHOCTAWNORTHERN CLARKE AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT [wind: 50 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]050
WWUS84 KMOB 122246
SPSMOB
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
ALZ051-053-MSZ067-122345-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Wayne MS-
546 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHOCTAW...NORTHERN CLARKE AND
NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT...
At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles east of Lisman to 4 miles north of
Quitman. Movement was southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Silas, Coffeeville, Gilbertown, and Toxey.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3214 8802 3214 8804 3209 8804 3206 8807
3207 8810 3206 8812 3201 8811 3199 8807
3199 8785 3181 8764 3170 8836 3170 8846
3168 8846 3166 8859 3184 8871 3190 8847
3218 8844 3223 8812
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 327DEG 27KT 3218 8818 3210 8871
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
$$
Source: MOB issues STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHOCTAWNORTHERN CLARKE AND NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTIES THROUGH 645 PM CDT [wind: 50 MPH, hail: 0.00 IN]--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
3
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:10 PM »
PBZ continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH (RADAR INDICATED), hail: <1.00 IN (RADAR INDICATED)] for Noble [OH] till 7:30 PM EDT043
WWUS51 KPBZ 132320
SVSPBZ
Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
720 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
OHC121-132330-
/O.CON.KPBZ.SV.W.0371.000000T0000Z-260913T2330Z/
Noble OH-
720 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NOBLE COUNTY...
At 720 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Caldwell, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and small hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.
Locations impacted include...
Dudley, Dexter City and Harriettsville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3973 8132 3959 8134 3959 8136 3960 8136
3960 8139 3961 8139 3962 8141 3963 8141
3963 8145 3965 8145 3965 8147 3959 8147
3964 8158 3966 8154 3967 8154 3968 8152
3969 8152 3969 8151 3973 8147 3974 8147
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 292DEG 20KT 3969 8156
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
$$
MLB
Source: PBZ continues Severe Thunderstorm Warning [wind: 60 MPH (RADAR INDICATED), hail: <1.00 IN (RADAR INDICATED)] for Noble [OH] till 7:30 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
4
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:09 PM »
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 2:35 PM EDT793
FXUS61 KCLE 141835
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
235 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes
were needed with this update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool temperatures and dry weather expected tonight.
2) An unsettled and humid weather pattern returns Tuesday
through late week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest
Ohio Tuesday night, although confidence is low.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will remain in place over the region through
tonight. Clear skies will allow for efficient radiational
cooling and expect lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A few
spots across interior NE PA may manage to drip into the low to
mid 40s if cooling ends up being more efficient than currently
anticipated. This will be the last chilly night of the workweek
before temperatures warm up Tuesday onwards.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
After a brief break in the unsettled weather pattern, multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the area
late Tuesday through at least Thursday. The first round of
showers and thunderstorms will arrive behind a warm front and
with a pre-frontal trough Tuesday evening. There is a small
chance of a couple of stronger storms Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night, although most CAMs suggest that the best
instability will be to the west of the local area and storms
will be coming in during a diurnally unfavorable time of day.
The severe weather risk may be a little bit higher if storms end
up moving in earlier than currently anticipated, but either way
bulk shear values of around 30 knots supports an SPC Marginal
Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather with damaging wind gusts
being the main concern.
From there, a cold front will push southeast across at least a
portion of the area before slowing and wavering over the region
Wednesday through late Thursday. This will result in periodic
showers and thunderstorms for the mid to late week timeframe.
There may be opportunities for a few stronger storms given the
proximity of the front, but there is still uncertainty in the
exact placement of the boundary and the amount of instability in
place each afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on the forecast
and update as needed.
It will also be quite humid and warm across the area with highs
in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s
Wednesday and Thursday. PWAT values will increase to 1.5 to at
least 2 inches during this time and flow parallel to the
boundary may result in potential in heavy rainfall rates and
training showers/thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure continues to provide for cooler, drier, and VFR
conditions through the TAF period. FEW-SCT cumulus around 4000
feet across parts of NE OH/NW PA will continue to clear out
through this evening. High clouds will filter through at times.
Fog is generally not expected tonight due to a light breeze.
Speaking of, north-northeast winds at under 10kt this afternoon
will remain light while shifting south-southeast tonight. Winds
increase to around 10kt out of the south-southwest on Tuesday.
Outlook...Non-VFR at times in scattered showers/storms Tuesday
night through Thursday night.
&&
.MARINE...
Light and variable winds will continue through early this
evening before shifting to the southeast and increasing to 10 to
20 knots ahead of an approaching warm front tonight into Tuesday
morning. There may a brief period where winds in the nearshore
zones (especially in the western basin) touch 20 knots Tuesday
morning, however confidence in winds of 20+ knots is highest in
the open waters. Have opted against a Small Craft Advisory for
the time being, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds.
The offshore winds will mitigate wave heights and keep the risk
of rip currents relatively low. Offshore winds will diminish to
roughly 10 to 15 knots Tuesday evening with flow becoming more
southwesterly behind the warm front Tuesday night into early
Wednesday. Northeast winds of 10 knots or less are expected on
the lake as a frontal boundary wavers over the region Wednesday
with flow becoming variable Thursday through the end of the
week. Winds/waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory
limits late this week.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...15
Source: CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 14, 2:35 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
6
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:07 PM »
INDIANAPOLIS EAGLE CREEK IN Sep 13 Climate Report: High: 83 Low: 67 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing079
CDUS43 KIND 132032
CLIEYE
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
432 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
...................................
...THE INDIANAPOLIS EAGLE CREEK IN CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 13 2026...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 9999 TO 9999
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.......................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 83 158 PM 79 4 79
MINIMUM 67 655 AM 58 9 55
AVERAGE 75 69 6 67
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 0.09 -0.09 0.21
MONTH TO DATE 1.00 1.06 -0.06 0.39
SINCE SEP 1 1.00 1.06 -0.06 0.39
SINCE JAN 1 31.63 29.99 1.64 26.69
.......................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 18 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION N (340)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 25 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION N (340)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 4.1
SKY COVER
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.1
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
FOG
FOG W/VISIBILITY <= 1/4 MILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 1200 AM
LOWEST 56 300 PM
..........................................................
THE INDIANAPOLIS EAGLE CREEK IN CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 79 MM MM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 58 MM MM
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 13 2026.....SUNRISE 724 AM EDT SUNSET 757 PM EDT
SEPTEMBER 14 2026.....SUNRISE 725 AM EDT SUNSET 755 PM EDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: INDIANAPOLIS EAGLE CREEK IN Sep 13 Climate Report: High: 83 Low: 67 Precip: 0.0" Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
8
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:06 PM »
LMK issues Heat Advisory valid at Sep 15, 12:00 PM EDT for Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Orange, Perry, Scott, Washington [IN] and Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Hart, Jefferson, Larue, Logan, Meade, Metcalfe, Monroe, Nelson, Ohio, Simpson, Spencer, Warren [KY] till Sep 15, 8:00 PM EDT540
WWUS73 KLMK 131750
NPWLMK
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Louisville KY
150 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
INZ076>078-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>030-038-045-053-061>064-070>076-
140900-
/O.NEW.KLMK.HT.Y.0012.260915T1600Z-260916T0000Z/
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison IN-
Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-
Bullitt-Jefferson-Spencer-Nelson-Larue-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-
Including the cities of Paoli, Hodgenville, Brandenburg,
Russellville, Louisville, Scottsburg, Shepherdsville, Hardinsburg,
English, Salem, Bardstown, Leitchfield, Lewisport, Brownsville,
Jasper, Taylorsville, Greensburg, Hartford, Franklin, Elizabethtown,
Hawesville, Scottsville, Corydon, Horse Cave, Bowling Green, Tell
City, Jeffersonville, Tompkinsville, Providence, Glasgow, Edmonton,
Morgantown, and New Albany
150 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026 /1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026/
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7
PM CDT/ TUESDAY...
* WHAT...Heat index values up to 105 expected.
* WHERE...Portions of south central Indiana and north central,
northwest, and south central Kentucky.
* WHEN...From noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Tuesday.
* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of
the sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.
&&
$$
SRW
Source: LMK issues Heat Advisory valid at Sep 15, 12:00 PM EDT for Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Orange, Perry, Scott, Washington [IN] and Allen, Barren, Breckinridge, Bullitt, Butler, Edmonson, Grayson, Green, Hancock, Hardin, Hart, Jefferson, Larue, Logan, Meade, Metcalfe, Monroe, Nelson, Ohio, Simpson, Spencer, Warren [KY] till Sep 15, 8:00 PM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
9
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:06 PM »
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:15 AM EDT337
FXUS63 KJKL 130415 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1215 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog could become locally dense into the start of the
morning.
- Temperatures will increase to well above normal, or even near
record, levels by the middle of next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1215 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
A pesky stray thunderstorm to the northwest is not enough to
justify keeping or extending the flood watch after a mostly dry
evening. For that reason - and in concurrence with all the CAMs
guidance - the Flood Watch was dropped before midnight. Otherwise,
have updated the forecast for the latest obs and trends of the
T/Td/Sky grids along with PoPs through dawn. Still expect areas of
fog becoming locally thick with a potential for low stratus thick
substantial enough for even some spits of sprinkles or drizzle
into the morning. These adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the HWO, zones, and
SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 452 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
An area of light to moderate rain continues across portions of
southeastern Kentucky late this afternoon, along with generally
more discrete activity over the Bluegrass and west of Lake
Cumberland. The clouds and precipitation have held temperatures
on the cool side, ranging mainly in the 70s to lower 80s. Also, the
heaviest rainfall totals have fallen outside of the Flood Watch
area so far, with no reported impacts, but trends will need
continued monitoring through the evening. Instability remains on
the weak, skinny side, generally between 1000 and 1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE, with anomalously moist PWATs near 2.0 inches, a deep warm-
cloud layer, and weak Corfidi upstream vectors around 10 kts or
less--all still favorable for torrential rainfall and
backbuilding. The latest surface analysis shows a warm frontal
boundary draped northeast of the area from North Carolina up into
central West Virginia, across Ohio, to over southern Lake
Michigan. Meanwhile, a cold front extends from Ontario
southwestward over Chicago and St. Louis. Looking aloft, a
500 hPa shortwave trough axis extends from Cincinnati to
Nashville to Huntsville. Additional weaker shortwave energy is
located upstream along the cold front.
The primary focus through this evening will be continued rounds of
convection and the potential for training and backbuilding leading
to instances of isolated flash flooding ahead of the upper-level
shortwave trough. As mentioned prior, most of the substantial
rainfall has occurred outside of the Flood Watch, and guidance is
not hitting the Flood Watch area particularly hard this evening.
However, given the favorable environment and mediocre CAM
performance, the Watch will remain in place for now. Otherwise,
look for convection to diminish this evening as the 500 hPa trough
axis passes overhead. Lingering low-level moisture will then favor
plenty of fog and low stratus overnight. Additionally, a second
700 hPa vort lobe will pass late tonight and Sunday morning, when
model soundings still show a little instability in the lowest few
hundred hPa of the troposphere -- perhaps enough for a few light
showers in addition to drizzle. Therefore, there is still a low
chance of precipitation (10 to 30 percent) in the forecast closer
to daybreak. Otherwise, low-level moisture will gradually thin
during the day Sunday as weak 500 hPa shortwave ridging moves
overhead. The aforementioned cold front then approaches Sunday
evening from the northwest and sags southward across the CWA
Sunday night. Upper-level support appears to be fading as the
boundary approaches, but a few showers or thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out, with the best chances toward and northwest of I-64.
In sensible weather terms, look for showers and thunderstorms to
impact much of the area through this evening, though a few places
could stay dry. Where activity is most persistent, there could be
instances of flooding. Otherwise, it will be mild and muggy, with
fog, variable cloud cover, and perhaps a few light showers or
patchy drizzle late. Look for low temperatures ranging through
the mid to upper 60s. Looking ahead to Sunday, morning low clouds
and fog yield to increasing sunshine. It will be seasonably warm,
with highs in the lower to middle 80s. Clouds increase Sunday
evening and give way to a chance of showers and thunderstorms,
with the best chances in the northwest. It will again be
seasonably mild, with lows ranging through the 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
To open the extended period, prominent features at 500 mb include a
trough over the Northeast, a ridge extending from the Upper Midwest
down through the Mississippi Valley, while a second trough is modeled
over the Northern Rockies. The upper pattern remains fairly
progressive, with the ridge moving east over the Southeast US and Ohio
Valley by Tuesday, lasting through Wednesday. Thursday through
Saturday, the second trough modeled over the Northern Rockies by
Monday will slowly break the upper ridge down, ushering in cooler
weather for Friday and Saturday.
For sensible weather, the new work week starts with a surface cold
front having just passed southeast of the area. Some lingering
isolated showers remain possible early along the Virginia-Kentucky
border. Some residual river valley fog should mix out by mid-morning.
Temperatures will be cooler, ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s
from north to south. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected early,
becoming fair in the afternoon and evening. With skies clearing out
Monday night and high pressure building in, temperatures cool into the
low to mid 50s in the valleys, with upper 50s to low 60s along ridge
tops. River valley fog is expected to develop again Monday night
before mixing out Tuesday morning.
With the ridge shifting into the Southeast, high pressure builds into
the region, leading to temperatures warming into the upper 80s to low
90s through Thursday. Shortwave energy associated with the second
trough brings shower and storm chances back to the CWA Thursday
through Saturday. A cold front looks to progress into the forecast
area from the Ohio Valley before stalling out Saturday. Agreement
among model and ensemble guidance does widen heading towards the end
of the week. With troughing energy seemingly breaking down the ridge
heading into the weekend, high temperatures lax some, ranging from
the mid 80s to upper 80s north to south on Friday, and low 80s to
mid 80s north to south on Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
Widely varying conditions were in place across eastern Kentucky
at the 00z TAF issuance, ranging from IFR under low clouds to VFR
under clear skies. A few showers will remain possible this evening
with the passage of an upper level trough, but most locations
should remain rain-free. Of more note, fog and/or low stratus are
expected to develop overnight amidst weak upslope flow and the
leftover moisture from today's rainfall. This will lead to poor
flying conditions across much of the area through daybreak Sunday
with IFR or worse conditions probable. Winds will remain light and
variable overnight and then become westerly around 5 knots or
less during the day on Sunday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON
Source: JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 12:15 AM EDT--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
11
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:04 PM »
Ottawa designer featured at New York Fashion Week for the 3rd time Stacey Martin, the founder of Stacey Martin Lifestyle, organized a seven-minute runway show for this year’s New York Fashion Week showcasing pieces she designs and creates in her Ottawa studio. Source: Ottawa designer featured at New York Fashion Week for the 3rd time----------------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
12
« on: September 15, 2026, 10:55:03 PM »
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:26 PM EDT215
FXUS61 KBOX 131826
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
226 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The heaviest rainfall has come to an end, with remaining showers
tapering off from west to east through early this evening.
Additional significant rainfall is not expected, though localized
nuisance flooding may linger given the 2 to 4 inches of rain that
fell across portions of Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts
today. Lastly, Small Craft Advisories issued for most waters
starting Monday afternoon through Monday night for gusty winds.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Heaviest rainfall ending, drier overnight, though low clouds
and areas of fog are possible. A stray early morning shower
remains possible too.
- Dry and fall-like Monday into Tuesday, with a chilly start
Tuesday morning.
- High pressure in control next week brings generally quiet
weather. Brief bout of summer warmth and humidity expected
Wed- Fri.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Heaviest rainfall ending, drier overnight, though
low clouds and areas of fog are possible. A stray early morning
shower remains possible too.
The back edge of the heaviest rain is now working from west to east
across southern New England, with clouds thinning across eastern New
York and approaching western Massachusetts. Rainfall totals have
been impressive today, with many areas seeing 2 to 4 inches, mainly
across Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts. The Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect through 6 PM. While the heaviest rain is
over, light to moderate showers linger and could still lead to
nuisance flooding. Expect these showers to continue for the next
couple of hours before wrapping up between 4 PM and 6 PM, though a
few may linger an additional hour or so across the outer Cape.
Drier conditions arrive overnight, though low clouds and areas of
fog may persist into early Monday morning. A final push of showers
is possible toward daybreak, though guidance has generally shown
this activity weakening as it approaches southern New England,
leaving just a spotty shower or two, mainly in the 4 AM to 8 AM time
frame. It is worth mentioning that some of the high-resolution
guidance indicates a bit of a resurgence in shower activity as it
approaches the coast, possibly picking up on some instability near
the shore. Nevertheless, this would not lead to impactful weather
and would be nothing like what we saw today.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and fall-like Monday into Tuesday, with a chilly
start Tuesday morning.
Surface high pressure around 1020-1025 mb builds in from the Great
Lakes region on Monday, settles overhead Monday night, and remains
with us through Tuesday as a 1030 mb surface high. Little weather to
talk about during this time frame. While there is lingering moisture
early Monday morning, with some areas of fog, a much drier airmass
arrives by noon as PWATs fall below half an inch.
CAA during the day allows for a period of breezy northwest winds.
Forecast soundings through BUFKIT show a well-mixed boundary layer
upwards of 850 mb, which should allow most of the wind aloft to mix
to the surface. Winds aloft are 25 to 30 kt, resulting in surface
wind gusts of roughly 20 to 30 mph from the north-northwest. Highs
Monday afternoon are largely in the lower to middle 70s.
With high pressure overhead Monday night, winds decouple, allowing
for effective radiational cooling. Have opt'd to do a model blend to
show the coldest of the guidance. This would mean many of us wake up
Tuesday morning in the 40s; however, would not be shocked if towns
in far northwestern Franklin County dip to 38 to 40 degrees. That
being said, urban centers remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Boston may retain enough heat due to the urban heat island effect to
maintain lows in the middle 50s. Lastly, there could be areas of
ground fog due to the abundant recent rainfall.
Heading into Tuesday, a crisp and dry day with dew points in the
50s, with some upper 40s possible in northern Massachusetts.
Meanwhile, 925 mb temperatures settle around +9C to +12C, which
would suggest high temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s. High
pressure slowly drifts east during the day, with winds shifting to a
north-northeasterly direction.
KEY MESSAGE 3...High pressure in control next week brings
generally quiet weather. Brief bout of summer warmth and
humidity expected Wed- Fri.
High pressure firmly in control by Tuesday will bring much drier
weather with it. Under dry NW flow dewpoints will be very comfortable
to start the week, in the 40s. This will be a comfortable taste of
Fall Tuesday when combined with high temperatures in the upper 60s
(coasts) to low 70s (inland). As the high shifts over the Atlantic
Wednesday flow turns southerly bringing the return of more summer-
like temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 70s and mid 60s
respectively. Still some uncertainty with regard to the forecast for
late week and next weekend. Zonal mid level flow continues with
potential for a low to cross somewhere in the vicinity of southern
New England; whether that stays to our north or goes overhead is
uncertain, but generally looking at a better shot of unsettled
weather late Thursday onward.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18z TAF Update: Widespread rain ending from west to east this
afternoon.
Through 00z...Moderate confidence in trends and timing.
The heaviest rain is starting to exit from west to east across
southern New England, ending first west of the CT River Valley
around 19z, reaching the I-95 corridor around 21z, and moving east
of Cape Cod by 00z. While much of the night will be dry, a decaying
line of showers pushes through southern New England from 06z-10z.
Ceilings are generally LIFR to IFR, with some improvement overnight
to high-end IFR, if not MVFR. A drier airmass arrives predawn, which
will erode cloud cover and allow conditions to trend VFR between 10-
14z Monday.
Monday and Monday Night...High confidence.
VFR. NW to NNW winds 8 to 12 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. Winds ease
overnight, becoming light and variable under clear skies. Isolated
areas of ground fog are possible due to abundant recent rainfall.
Tuesday...High confidence.
VFR. Light N to NNE winds, becoming E/SE by the end of the day.
KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday...High confidence.
Surface low pressure moves northeast from the southern coastal
waters Sunday afternoon, crossing into the Gulf of Maine overnight
before reaching Nova Scotia Monday morning. Meanwhile, high pressure
builds in from the Great Lakes region on Monday, resulting in a
tightening pressure gradient and gusty northerly winds Monday
afternoon through the overnight hours. There may be a brief period
of gusts around 25 kt, thus a marginal Small Craft Advisory has been
issued. Seas during this time are 2 to 3 ft across the nearshore
waters and 3 to 4 ft across the outer waters. However, the outermost
portions of the forecast zones may approach 5 ft.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ004.
MA...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for MAZ012-013-015>024.
RI...Flood Watch until 6 PM EDT this evening for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for
ANZ231>235-237-250-254>256.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BW/Dooley
AVIATION...BW/Dooley
MARINE...BW/Dooley
Source: BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Sep 13, 2:26 PM EDT---------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
14
« on: September 15, 2026, 04:51:05 PM »
MOBILE Sep 12 Climate Report: High: 89 Low: 73 Precip: Trace Snow: Missing037
CDUS44 KMOB 122123
CLIMOB
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
423 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
...................................
...THE MOBILE CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR SEPTEMBER 12 2026...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD: 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD: 1842 TO 2026
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 89 2:59 PM 97 2019 88 1 92
MINIMUM 73 3:17 AM 53 1940 70 3 65
AVERAGE 81 79 2 79
PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY T 8.23 1979 0.18 -0.18 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 2.90 2.20 0.70 0.02
SINCE SEP 1 2.90 2.20 0.70 0.02
SINCE JAN 1 48.48 49.98 -1.50 51.10
DEGREE DAYS
COOLING
TODAY 16 14 2 14
MONTH TO DATE 213 180 33 163
SINCE SEP 1 213 180 33 163
SINCE JAN 1 2467 2159 308 2336
...................................................................
WIND (MPH)
HIGHEST WIND SPEED 13 HIGHEST WIND DIRECTION S (180)
HIGHEST GUST SPEED 18 HIGHEST GUST DIRECTION S (180)
AVERAGE WIND SPEED 2.9
SKY COVER
AVERAGE SKY COVER 0.5
WEATHER CONDITIONS
THE FOLLOWING WEATHER WAS RECORDED TODAY.
LIGHT RAIN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (PERCENT)
HIGHEST 100 3:00 AM
LOWEST 61 11:00 AM
AVERAGE 81
..........................................................
THE MOBILE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TOMORROW
NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 88 97 2019
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 70 55 1940
SUNRISE AND SUNSET
SEPTEMBER 12 2026.....SUNRISE 6:36 AM CDT SUNSET 7:02 PM CDT
SEPTEMBER 13 2026.....SUNRISE 6:36 AM CDT SUNSET 7:01 PM CDT
- INDICATES NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
R INDICATES RECORD WAS SET OR TIED.
MM INDICATES DATA IS MISSING.
T INDICATES TRACE AMOUNT.
$$
Source: MOBILE Sep 12 Climate Report: High: 89 Low: 73 Precip: Trace Snow: Missing--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
15
« on: September 15, 2026, 04:51:05 PM »
1 ESE Ellport [Lawrence Co, PA] 911 Call Center reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 6:08 PM EDT -- Tree down blocking the driveway. Time estimated via radar.159
NWUS51 KPBZ 132221
LSRPBZ
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
621 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0608 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 ESE Ellport 40.86N 80.24W
09/13/2026 Lawrence PA 911 Call Center
Tree down blocking the driveway. Time
estimated via radar.
&&
$$
MLB
Source: 1 ESE Ellport [Lawrence Co, PA] 911 Call Center reports Tstm Wnd Dmg at 6:08 PM EDT -- Tree down blocking the driveway. Time estimated via radar.--------------- If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
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